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An election approaches for the leader of a Conservative government in the first term of a majority. Hes a divisive figure, but benefits from a divided opposition. The NDP leader enters the race as Opposition leader following a massive growth in seats in the last election. The Liberals, decimated in the last election, enter this one with a new leader themselves and the longest road ahead to victory.

If that sounds like a Star Wars opening crawl version of Ontarios upcoming election, its not. It was a description of the political landscape ahead of the 2015 federal election. Apologies for the spoiler, but in that election the Liberal party came back from a third-place start to win a majority government.

For Steven Del Duca and the Ontario Liberals in 2022, there are lessons to be learned from the 2015 federal campaign if they want to return to a prominent place in Queens Park following this years provincial election.

For months, Ontario polls have been relatively consistent with Premier Doug Ford and the governing Progressive Conservative party showing a solid lead over the Ontario Liberals and the NDP. The two opposition parties have traded places for second and third but have generally remained in a statistical tie with one another. Thomas Mulcair and Justin Trudeau found their parties in similar standing heading into the 2015 election, jockeying for positioning as the one to beat Stephen Harper.

The first lesson Del Ducas Liberals should remember is that campaigns matter. In the initial week of the 2015 campaign, it was the NDP slightly ahead in most polls. Come election day, the Liberals beat the NDP by nearly 20 per cent in the popular vote. If Ontario Liberals demonstrate they are the only alternative to a Ford government, the tie with the NDP wont last the length of the writ.

In 2015, Trudeaus Liberals kept their sights on the party they were trying to defeat, not the party they were trying to beat for second. Other than one devastating moment on the debate stage, Trudeau rarely came after Mulcair, keeping his focus on Harpers record instead.

Andrea Horwath has lost three elections in her 13 years as leader of the Ontario NDP, including in 2018 when conditions were ideal for her to win. If the Liberals want to win, Del Duca should keep his focus on the only other leader who might win this election Ford.

Coming into the election in third place in 2015 may have given the Liberals more leeway to make bold promises. Their platform included the Canada child benefit, the Canada Infrastructure Bank, legalizing marijuana, electoral reform and a commitment to raise taxes on the wealthiest Canadians. The Liberals may not have reached all those goals yet, but how many parts of the NDP platform in 2015 does anyone remember?

Del Duca has made clear promises that are tangible for the average voter with the partys commitment to economic dignity. His plan includes measures such as an increased regional minimum wage, a proposal to explore a four-day work week, 10 paid sick days, portable health benefits, and a ban on underpaid gig and contract work. By including small businesses in his plan with a cap on credit card and delivery fees and promising tax relief for small businesses hit hard by the pandemic, the Ontario Liberals show they understand a real recovery needs to lift everyone up.

In political circles, May 4 is thought to be the likely date for Ontarios election campaign to officially begin. That is less than a month away. Like their federal counterparts in 2015, the Ontario Liberals have a lot of ground to cover if they hope to have a similar come-from-behind victory.

It is a long road to be sure but looking back to 2015, it seems that Trudeau left Del Duca a map.

Originally posted here:
The Ontario Liberals should look to the 2015 federal campaign to find a path forward in 2022 - Toronto Star