Opinion: Liberals face political oblivion with Trudeau at the helm – The Globe and Mail
More than a decade ago, Justin Trudeau took a dispirited, strife-torn, third-place Liberal Party and recreated it in his own image, winning election after election after election. There are few voices of dissent within the party because the voices who matter all matter because of him.
But the latest polls show the Liberals headed for, not just defeat, but decimation in the next federal election. Even the most die-hard Trudeau loyalist must be starting to wonder whether its time for a change at the top.
The Conservatives opened up a substantial lead over the Liberals last summer and have held it ever since. That lead may even be growing. A poll released on the weekend by Abacus Data for the Toronto Star shows the Tories ahead of the Grits in the popular vote by 19 percentage points 43 per cent to 24 per cent with the NDP at 18 per cent.
Data Dive with Nik Nanos: 2023 was a historically bad year for Justin Trudeau and the federal Liberals
The Liberals are in third place in the Prairies and in British Columbia. The Tories have more than 50-per-cent support in Atlantic Canada and lead the Liberals by 14 points in Ontario. But heres the truly amazing number: Abacus has the two parties statistically tied in the historically Liberal bastion of Quebec, with the Bloc Qubcois at 34 per cent, the Conservatives at 26 and the Liberals at 25.
(The online survey of 2,398 adults was conducted Feb. 1-7, with a comparable margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points, 19 times out of 20.)
Provincial sample sizes are small, with a greater margin of error than the overall national count. Thats why a Lger poll released last week is so important. An online sampling of 1,032 Quebec voters released earlier this month showed the Bloc Qubcois at 29 per cent, the Liberals at 28 per cent and the Conservatives at 24 per cent.
Thats two polls showing the Conservatives competitive with the Liberals in Quebec. What does that mean?
It means that if an election were held tomorrow, the Liberals would lose most of their 24 seats in Atlantic Canada and at least some of their 34 seats in Quebec.
The Conservatives would eat heavily into Liberal strongholds in suburban Ontario and B.C., while the NDP could steal seats from them in the downtowns. The Prairies would remain a Liberal desert.
There are Liberals who believe Mr. Trudeau is the best leader to save the furniture, as the saying goes that even in the event of a defeat in the next election, the Prime Minister would preserve the Liberal base for a successor to build upon. Those who think that need to reconsider.
The Liberals under Mr. Trudeau face a historic drubbing, one that could rival the calamities of 1958, 1984 or 2011. And polling analyst Philippe Fournier at 338Canada.com believes the assertion that there is still time to turn things around increasingly looks like naive wishful thinking.
The Conservatives already have their winning coalition of voters, he posted Sunday. Barring anything egregious, that vote is now locked in.
So is it time for Mr. Trudeau to step down? Voters appear to think so.
Data Dive with Nik Nanos: The national mood is dour good news for the Conservatives
In his poll for The Globe and Mail, released Monday, Nik Nanos has 46 per cent of Canadians saying Mr. Trudeau has done a poor job as Liberal Leader, compared with 25 per cent who rate his performance as excellent. When asked how the Liberals could best increase their chances of winning the next election, 39 per cent said the answer is to replace Mr. Trudeau. Only 3 per cent thought the partys best option is for him to stay.
(The hybrid phone and online survey of 1,114 adults was conducted between Jan. 29-31, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.)
One of the most important jobs of a political leader is to leave their party in decent shape for their successor. Stephen Harper not only reunited the conservative movement and provided almost 10 years of government, he left the Conservative Party with solid finances and 99 seats in the House after his 2015 election loss.
Mr. Trudeau has a duty to bequeath a healthy Liberal Party to the next leader. He must ask himself honestly whether remaining at the helm of the party best ensures that outcome. Most voters appear to have reached their own conclusions.
Editors note: A previous version of this article incorrectly referred to the Bloc Qubcois as the Parti Qubcois. This version has been updated.
Visit link:
Opinion: Liberals face political oblivion with Trudeau at the helm - The Globe and Mail
- Conrad Black: Liberals must retreat from their climate obsessions - National Post - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Larry David/Obamas Pairing Shows Why Liberals Win - Hollywood in Toto - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Liberals and conservatives live differently but people think the divide is even bigger than it is - PsyPost - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Liberals Laud Fake Story that ICE Agents Are Resigning In Droves - newsguardrealitycheck.com - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Letters: Campus life harmed by liberals who believe they're always right - NOLA.com - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Jesse Kline: Liberals get a crash course in the importance of natural resources - Yahoo - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Liberals pick Chantale Marchand to run in Arthabaska byelection - Montreal Gazette - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Justin Ling: Mark Carney is the reincarnation of the Chrtien Liberals. Thats not a bad thing - Toronto Star - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Jesse Kline: Liberals get a crash course in the importance of natural resources - MSN - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Where are the Liberals When Iran Mass-Deports Millions of Afghans? - The European Conservative - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- The Supreme Courts Liberals Have an Impossible Task. One of Them Is Charting the Way. - Slate Magazine - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Opinion: The Liberals launch another expenditure review: This time, we mean it - The Globe and Mail - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Liberals could find out soon whether their rushed projects bill will spark another Idle No More - National Post - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Wealthy White Liberals Reportedly Urge Democrats To Be Willing To Get Shot Opposing Trump - dailycaller.com - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Albertas PCs Might Rise from the Dead. Not the BC Liberals - The Tyee - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Cryo-liberals are still dishing up deranged delusions - The Times - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Wealthy White Liberals Reportedly Urge Democrats To Be Willing To Get Shot Opposing Trump - AOL.com - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Liberals, Conservatives, And Independents Form Initiative To Fight For Democracy And Freedom - thedailypoliticususa.com - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- How the Liberals are eroding workers Charter-protected rights - Canadian Dimension - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Liberals dont want Muslim women to demand rights in the Hindutva era. Theres no right time - ThePrint - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- New polls show the Liberals opening large lead over the Conservatives - iPolitics - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Another Saturday Night - Liberals Are Patriotic! updated with how to help the central Texas flooding - Daily Kos - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Vancouver has a new civic party the Vancouver Liberals - Business in Vancouver - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Liberals Lose Trust on Health After 11 Years - Mirage News - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Newsom warms to building, but will California liberals allow it? - Washington Examiner - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Liberals Are Declaring That The Fourth Of July Is Canceled This Year And Even Threatening To Sue People Who Celebrate For Emotional Damage - Whiskey... - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Peter Menzies: Justin Trudeaus legislative legacy is still haunting the Liberals - The Hub | More Signal. Less Noise. - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Opinion | Memo to liberals: Diversity can be conservative - The Washington Post - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Liberals Are Going to Keep Losing at the Supreme Court - The Atlantic - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Hollywood Liberals Slammed as 'Disgusting' for Bleating They Weren't Invited to Jeff Bezos 'Vulgar' Wedding - RadarOnline - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Forget female quotas, its mediocrity thats killing the Liberals - The Australian - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Fatal flaw of liberals is belief that being right is enough | Opinion - The News-Press - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- Liberals want Americans to depend on government - Washington Times - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- If old school white-anting Sussan Ley on gender quotas works, the Liberals may pay a heavy political price - The Guardian - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- HUNTER: Have Liberals had their come-to-Jesus moment on crime? - Toronto Sun - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- Random Musing: Why some Indian liberals are celebrating Zohran Mamdani and think he is the new Obama - Times of India - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- Liberals In California Are Banning Books Again - The Daily Wire - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- 'Liberals need to reconnect with people's deep feelings of being disrespected,' sociologist says - Perspective - France 24 - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- Threat of Trump should drive liberals from the middle ground | Opinion - The Portland Press Herald - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- If the Liberals want to appeal again to aspirational Australians, they could start by taxing wealth | Judith Brett - The Guardian - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- The Weekly Wrap: The Liberals must abandon their internet regulation agenda - The Hub | More Signal. Less Noise. - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- Data breach may have exposed 200,000 home-care patients' information, say Ontario Liberals - Yahoo - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- M. imeka criticized the Slovak government after the summit of liberals in Brussels for not diversifying gas supplies - European Newsroom - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- ANALYSIS: David Petersons Liberals are remembering the good times. Ontarians should, too - TVO Today - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- Carney Liberals urged to ditch DST as Trump terminates trade talks with Canada - Toronto Sun - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- Martin Regg Cohn: History reminds Ontarios languishing Liberals that they need to make their own luck - Toronto Star - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- Arab Journalists and Liberals Praise U.S. Strike On Iran: The Iranian Threat Is Over; Trump Saved Humanity; God Bless America - MEMRI | Middle East... - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- Conservatives report better mental health than liberals. I think I know why. | Opinion - USA Today - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- Federal Liberals reintroduce cybersecurity bill meant to protect critical infrastructure - The Globe and Mail - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- Threat of Trump should drive liberals from the middle ground | Opinion - Lewiston Sun Journal - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- Opinion: The Tory future may lie with the Liberals - Winnipeg Free Press - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- FIRST READING: All the hidden extras buried in the Liberals fast-tracked omnibus bills - National Post - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- Battin wants to reset and to rally Liberals behind taxes, housing and crime - Neos Kosmos - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- Chaos over withdrawal of EU law against greenwashing. Last trialogue skips, anger of socialists and liberals - Eunews - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- Libman: Quebec Liberals gamble on Rodriguez. Will voters? - Montreal Gazette - June 22nd, 2025 [June 22nd, 2025]
- Hunger strikes! Tears! Arrest! Its been a week of ridiculous performances as NYC liberals chase folk-hero status - New York Post - June 22nd, 2025 [June 22nd, 2025]
- The Trump Peace Prize? Matt Gaetz suggests renaming honor they only give to liberals - AL.com - June 22nd, 2025 [June 22nd, 2025]
- Victorias Liberals saved John Pesutto from bankruptcy. But can they save themselves from all-out war? - The Guardian - June 22nd, 2025 [June 22nd, 2025]
- Q+A | Outgoing Yukon premier highlights renewed energy in Yukon Liberals with new leader - Yahoo - June 22nd, 2025 [June 22nd, 2025]
- Trump Complains He Should Have Won FIVE Nobel Prizes By Now But They Only Give Them To Liberals - Mediaite - June 22nd, 2025 [June 22nd, 2025]
- Putins biggest threat is not from liberals but the nationalist Right - The Telegraph - June 20th, 2025 [June 20th, 2025]
- Obama swipes at affluent liberals during rare public remarks, says 'all of us are going to be tested' - Fox News - June 20th, 2025 [June 20th, 2025]
- Swedens Liberals bet to revive a sinking party - Euractiv - June 20th, 2025 [June 20th, 2025]
- They Hate Our Country The Right-Wings Accusation Towards Liberals - Daily Kos - June 20th, 2025 [June 20th, 2025]
- BREAKING: Yukon Liberals select Mike Pemberton as their new leader and the territory's next premier - Yukon News - June 20th, 2025 [June 20th, 2025]
- Andr Pratte: Pablo Rodriguez has won over the Quebec Liberals. That was the easy part - National Post - June 20th, 2025 [June 20th, 2025]
- Why liberals ignored the grooming gang scandal - The Spectator - June 20th, 2025 [June 20th, 2025]
- Liberals to pass major projects bill this week with Conservative support - National Post - June 20th, 2025 [June 20th, 2025]
- Liberals Pushing Through Law That Expands Governments Power - The Tyee - June 20th, 2025 [June 20th, 2025]
- Liberals major projects bill on track to pass before House rises for summer - iPolitics - June 20th, 2025 [June 20th, 2025]
- Yukon Liberals to choose new leader tonight - 96.1 The Rush - June 20th, 2025 [June 20th, 2025]
- MAGA World and liberals have turned on Musk as Trump divorce turns friends to foe - The Independent - June 7th, 2025 [June 7th, 2025]
- The Occupation Is Destroying Israel From Within, and Liberals Can't Ignore It Anymore - Haaretz - June 7th, 2025 [June 7th, 2025]
- 15 Liberals And Conservatives Are Sharing The Political Opinions They Hold That Align With The Opposite Party - Yahoo - June 7th, 2025 [June 7th, 2025]
- How are the Liberals of Bradfield coping with their loss? | Fiona Katauskas - The Guardian - June 7th, 2025 [June 7th, 2025]
- 15 Liberals And Conservatives Are Sharing The Political Opinions They Hold That Align With The Opposite Party - BuzzFeed - June 7th, 2025 [June 7th, 2025]
- Liberals and Conservatives in Canada split on Mark Carney and the country's direction after the election - YouGov - June 7th, 2025 [June 7th, 2025]
- Moderate Liberals say the party has a choice be a far-right rump run by octogenarians or move to the centre - The Guardian - June 7th, 2025 [June 7th, 2025]
- Chris Selley: Liberals wrap much-needed refugee reform in a terrible privacy-invading package - National Post - June 7th, 2025 [June 7th, 2025]
- 7 Things: Trump and Musk are going at it; Tuberville taunts liberals; angry mob demands MTG stay out of HSV; and more... - Yellowhammer News - June 7th, 2025 [June 7th, 2025]