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A very interesting post, characteristically calm and thoughtful; and Silver's track record in understanding American politics is certainly better than most people's (and surely better than mine). An excerpt, though you should read the whole thing:

A New York Timesheadline, for instance, expressed surprise that "many on the left" were sympathetic to Stefanik. But this isn't properly described as a battle between left and right. Rather, it's a three-way tug-of-war between the left, the right, and liberals.

Proponents of SJL usually dislike variations on the term "woke", but the problem is that theydislike almost every other term as well. And we needsometerm for this ideology, because it encompassesquite a few distinctive featuresthat differentiate it both from liberalism and from traditional, socialist-inflected leftism. In particular, SJL is much less concerned with the material condition of the working class, or with class in general. Instead, it is concerned with identity especially identity categories involving race, gender and sexuality, butsometimes also many others as part of a sort of intersectional kaleidoscope. The focus on identityisn't the only distinctive featureof SJL, but it is at the core of it.

SJLs and liberals have some interests in common. Both are "culturally liberal" on questions like abortion and gay marriage. And both disdain Donald Trump and the modern, MAGA-fied version of the Republican Party. But I'd suggest we've reached a point where they disagree in at least as many ways as they agree. Here are a few dimensions of conflict:

Now, maybe the progressive coalition will get lucky because MAGA-flavored conservatism remains such an unappealing alternative to people outside the Trumpiest 30 percent of the country. But both liberals and SJLs might find temptations: for instance, liberals will be tempted by MAGA pledges to dismantle DEI on campus, even if conservatives arealso quite terrible about protecting academic freedom. Meanwhile, one of Hayek's points was that socialists and conservatives shared a tolerance, if not even a reverence, for authoritarianism. SJL and MAGA could align there as well. SJL has already moved away from the liberal tradition of entrusting people to make their own decisions think of thesince-scuttled Disinformation Governance Board, or thedraconian COVID restrictions on college campuses. If Trump wins next year, this tendency will get worse, and SJLs may more openly question whether democracy works at all.

The old left-right coalitions have long been under strain as America has moved away from materialist politics to the politics of cultural grievance. The clearest manifestation of this has been intense polarization based on educational attainment (the more years of schooling, the more likely you are to vote Democrat). If, however, higher educational institutions and the ideas associated with themcontinue to become more and more unpopular, I'm not sure what happens next.

In the short run, this may be excellent news for conservatives most voters aren't college graduates to begin with, and even college-educated liberals are increasingly coming to see SJL ideas as cringey and unappealing. In the long run, as anger over October 7 and the pandemic era fades, conservatives will have to offer a more appealing alternative, as the current version of the GOP espouses lots of highly unpopular ideas of its own and only the most polarizing, MAGA-iest Republicans can reliably win Republican primaries. The past 20 years of American politics have mostly been characterized by stability: the2020electoral map didn't look much different than the2000one. If the progressive coalition is breaking up, the next 20 could be much more fluid.

Read more here:
Nate Silver on "Why Liberalism and Leftism Are Increasingly at Odds" - Reason