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The government could be forced to put the country on red alert if the global economy continues to deteriorate and it presses ahead with its plans to decimate the energy industry

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In a 1992 episode of Star Trek: The Next Generation, the Enterprise finds Scotty from the original series suspended in a transporter buffer and brings him back to life after 75 years. While interacting with the crew, the ships chief engineer, Geordi La Forge, informs Scotty that he told the captain his current task would take an hour and that it was an accurate estimate. You didnt tell him how long it would really take, did ya? asks Scotty. Oh, laddie, youve got a lot to learn if you want people to think of you as a miracle worker.

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In many ways, this is the approach the Liberals have taken to budgeting throughout the pandemic: predict a high deficit in the fall and then bill themselves as miracle workers when it comes in slightly lower. The 2020 fall economic statement, for example, estimated the deficit would hit $381.6 billion, but it turned out to be only $327.7 billion. Likewise, the 2021 fiscal update pegged the 2021-22 deficit at $144.5 billion, but last Thursdays budget had it coming in at $113.8 billion.

The big question this time around is whether the Liberals science fiction-like predictions will continue to work out in their favour. Though the budget forecasts that the deficit and debt-to-GDP ratio will steadily decline over the next four years, an alternate scenario detailed in the document admits that the economic outlook is clouded by a number of key uncertainties.

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Should we see a long, drawn-out war in Ukraine which is looking increasingly likely by the day we could see higher-than-expected commodity prices, inflation and interest rates, coupled with reduced consumption and economic output. This would significantly throw off future budgets, causing the deficit to be over 150 per cent higher than expected by 2026-27.

But in the coming year, the countrys fiscal situation would actually improve, with the deficit falling to $39.5 billion, instead of an expected $52.8 billion, and the debt-to-GDP ratio dropping 2.5 percentage points below what was initially forecast.

This would come about thanks to higher-than-expected commodity prices that would provide the federal government with additional revenues. Such an eventuality would allow Trudeau to play the miracle worker card one more time, but the gains would be short lived. Eventually, global energy prices will stabilize, and Canada will find itself in a situation in which energy-related investment and exports remain relatively muted, due to uncertainty about longer-term demand for fossil fuels.

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This will surely be exacerbated by the fact that the Trudeau government has made punishing the energy sector a top priority. Budget 2022 reiterates the governments recently laid out plans to put a cap on oil and gas emissions and force the industry to reduce its CO2 output by a whopping 42 per cent below 2019 levels.

The budget does include a new carbon capture and storage (CCS) tax credit, which is expected to cost the feds $35 million this year, increasing to $1.5 billion by 2026. But it will not be available to companies looking to use carbon to extract otherwise unrecoverable oil from existing wells, in a process known as enhanced oil recovery, which could help reduce emissions while encouraging economic growth.

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The money made available for CCS will also be dwarfed by the $8.2 billion the government expects to bring in from its pollution pricing framework, which includes the gas tax and taxes from jurisdictions where the federal government collects carbon tax revenues. That doesnt include all the carbon taxes the industry will pay to provincial governments, most of which now have their own carbon tax, cap-and-trade scheme or output-based pricing system that allows them to bypass the federal backstop.

To further turn the screws on the industry, the Liberals will be phasing out minimally taxed flow-through shares, which are used to help finance exploration. Its a measure that is only expected to bring in $9 million over the next five years but will have a significant impact on smaller players. It is yet another example of the federal government imposing additional costs on the industry simply because it doesnt like fossil fuels.

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Instead, the Liberals are betting big on the green transition fuelling the economy of tomorrow. Measures include the Canada Growth Fund, which the government hopes will attract $3 of private capital for every $1 of public money put into it. The Canada Infrastructure Bank will also be tasked with finding private investment in clean energy and other emission-reduction technologies, despite having little success in its previous efforts to entice investors. And, of course, there will be significant new spending on energy-efficient home retrofits, green-energy infrastructure, natural decarbonization measures and electric vehicle chargers.

The environmentalist left has long tried to sell us on the idea that transitioning to a less carbon-intensive future will boost economic output. As weve seen over the past two decades, however, most green technologies are not economically viable and are only feasible through massive government subsidies and tax increases designed to make once-cheap fossil fuels more expensive. Far from providing jobs and driving growth, the green transition will continue to be a net drain on society and will ensure the economic vitality of the country will be intimately tied to the governments continued largesse.

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Despite huge government investments in green technologies throughout the western world, its clear that sustainable energy will not provide the power needed to fully displace fossil fuels any time soon not unless we can secure a supply of dilithium crystals and perfect matter-antimatter reactors, that is. Instead of ensuring the resource industry can continue to drive the economy and provide much-needed government revenue during these turbulent economic times, the Liberals will make Canadas investment climate even less hospitable, driving energy companies away at warp speed.

National Postjkline@postmedia.comTwitter.com/accessd

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Jesse Kline: Liberals' sci-fi budgeting buttressed by the energy industry they have pledged to destroy - National Post