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Otherwise, the results from NSW show it was pretty much a garden variety its time election. As of the latest count, the Coalition suffered a 6.8 per cent primary swing against it, almost all of which went to Labor and teal independents.

One Nation, which would typically profit from a disgruntled Liberal base, recorded a swing towards it of just 0.7 per cent to record a statewide vote of 1.8 per cent. The Shooters went backwards.

As moderate Liberal senator Andrew Bragg noted on Sunday: Obviously, weve lost a lot of seats to Labor and last time I looked Labor was a party of the centre-left.

At the last federal election, the Liberals were punished in moderate seats, not conservative seats, but there remains an entrenched determination among the majority that the party needs to become more conservative. This may be good for unity but at what point, if at all, will it seek to embrace the middle where elections are won?

The situation facing the Liberal Party is more dire than in November 2007, when, after Kevin Rudd defeated John Howard, every government, state and federal, was Labor.

The most senior surviving Liberal leader was then Brisbane City Council lord mayor Campbell Newman.

Following Labors election victory in NSW on Saturday night, the situation for the Liberal Party on paper is only marginally better.

While the mainland is again all red, both state and federal, Tasmania remains blue, making Premier Jeremy Rockliff the nations most senior ranking Liberal.

Not so long ago, when there was a change in federal government, voters would hedge their bets and vote differently at a state level. By the time Tony Abbott took back power federally six years after the Howard defeat, every state and territory except South Australia and the ACT had switched to Liberal rule.

This time, such a turnaround over the next six years is hard to envisage. The partys divisions are riven by a destructive factionalism, the base is shrinking and the major party vote is fragmenting, meaning it has to be earned, not assumed.

Since Anthony Albanese defeated Scott Morrison in May last year, Labor was re-elected in Victoria and won government in NSW.

In South Australia and Western Australia, the recently minted and super-popular Labor premiers Peter Malinauskas and Mark McGowan are going nowhere for a very long time. In WA, there are only two Liberals in the parliament.

Indeed, with NSW done and dusted, the next election of consequence is not due until October 2024, in Queensland. The Liberal National Party has a good chance of defeating a long-in-the-tooth Palaszczuk government, but thats about all there is to look forward to.

(The NT goes to the polls in August 2024 and the ACT in October. In the latter jurisdiction, Labor and the Greens have been in government for more than two decades and there is little prospect of change).

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese campaigned alongside Labors candidate for Aston, Mary Doyle, on Thursday, but said his party would be the underdog in the byelection.Joe Armao

In the interim, those in the Liberal Party looking for a glimmer of hope are focused on this Saturdays federal byelection in Aston, in the eastern suburbs of Melbourne, where it will hope to hold the seat being vacated by Alan Tudge.

A government has not taken a seat from an opposition in a byelection since 1920 but if that streak is broken on Saturday, it will be a calamity for the Liberal Party.

Federal leader Peter Dutton is so unpopular he could not campaign in NSW. By contrast, on Friday last week, Anthony Albanese started the day in Aston and finished in Sydney.

There are five million people in metropolitan Melbourne. The Liberals hold just three seats there. That will be two if they lose Aston.

The psychological importance of winning Aston for the Liberals cannot be overestimated. A loss would be a hammer blow for morale. Duttons leadership would be spared by dint there is no alternative.

Read more from the original source:
For the Liberals, this is worse than 2007 - The Australian Financial Review