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So far, the Trump administration is keen on a show of force, to demonstrate that Tehran wont win this round.

Hundreds of U.S. paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division boarded C-17 Globemaster aircraft on January 1. They are part of the 750 sent to the Middle East after an Iran-backed militia fired rockets that killed a U.S. contractor and, in response, U.S. airstrikes killed two dozen militiamen. Then pro-Iranian protesters, guided by Iraqi politicians, attacked the U.S. embassy in Baghdad. This is President Donald Trumps Iraq moment. He said it wont be another Benghazi, where terrorists attacked a U.S. diplomatic compound and a CIA annex, killing U.S. ambassador Chris Stevens and three other Americans, causing the U.S. to withdraw from the city.

The Trump administration is now at a crossroads in its Iran policy and in its wider Middle East strategy. Since walking away from the flawed Iran deal, the U.S. has been pushing maximum pressure sanctions against Iran. Iran has been testing American resolve, attacking oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman in May and June 2019, downing a sophisticated U.S. drone, sending a drone swarm to attack Saudi Arabia, and firing rockets at Israel. Iranian-backed groups have also carriedout eleven attackson bases in Iraq where U.S. forces are present. Trump had been reticent to retaliate,calling off strikesin June after the drone downing. But in mid December, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo warned of a decisive response if the rocket attacks continued. The U.S. also sanctioned Iranian-backed groups in Iraq, including Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba, and Qais Khazali, leader of Asaib Ahl al-Haq. The message was clear: If its forces are harmed, the U.S. will take action and will pressure Irans proxies in Iraq.

Kataib Hezbollah, led by Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, launched 32 rockets at the K-1 military base on December 27, killing a U.S. contractor and wounding four U.S. personnel. Muhandishas a long history ofattacking Americans, plotting attacks on the U.S. embassy in Kuwait in the 1980s. He has worked with Hezbollah in the past, and in the mid 2000s he opposed the U.S. in Iraq. U.S. airstrikesin December killedtwo dozen Kataib Hezbollah members, including officers of the unit in Syria and Iraq, in contrast to similar airstrikes Israel has carried out against pro-Iranian groups there. Israel prefers precision strikes that usually kill fewer people.Israel allegedlystruck Kataib Hezbollah in June 2018. For the U.S., the decision to strike was about sending a message that Irans proxies will pay for their actions.

On December 30, a senior State Department official said that the U.S. is serious about confronting Irans activities. Pompeo has said that all Iranian-commanded forces must leave Syria. He went to Iraq in May 2019 to warn of credible threatsagainst us by the Iranians and their proxies. Irans regime studies U.S. decision making and has been poking and prodding all year. It strikes at U.S. allies to see how Israel and Saudi Arabia will respond. Riyadh did not respond to the September attack on Abqaiq;Israel has carriedout more than1,000 airstrikeson 250 targets in Syria.

Iran also wants to show the U.S. that it can circumvent sanctions. Indias foreign minister visited Iran in December, and Iranianforeign minister Javad Zarifwent to Qatar, Oman, Russia, and China. Irans president recently went to Malaysia and Japan.Iran, Russia, andChina held a joint naval drill, and Iran is working on an economic port agreement with India in Irans Chabahar, port which is a lifeline for Afghanistan. Unsurprisingly, Iran has hosted the Taliban, in an effort to pressure theU.S. in Afghanistan.

What can the U.S. do next? Senator Lindsey Grahamhas called on alliesin Iraq to stand with the US. Pompeo has calledout senior Iraqipoliticians and militia leaders for their ties to Iran and for their role in attacking the embassy. He has also called on leaders in Israel, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates tobuild support for U.S.responses.

There are several hurdles now in Iraq. This is Americas Iraq 5.0 moment. In August 1990, the U.S. sent forces to Saudi Arabia to confront Iraqs invasion of Kuwait. The U.S. returned to Iraq in 2003 to remove Saddam Hussein. After the 2007 surge to defeat the Iraqi insurgency, American forces left in 2011. President Barack Obama sent troops at the invitation of Baghdad to help defeat ISIS. Now, facing a potential confrontation with Iran, the US. deployment to Iraq to defend the embassy has been a majorfocus for CENTCOM,U.S. special forces, and OperationInherent Resolve, the anti-ISIS campaign. This indicates how serious U.S. forces are in taking the next step. Trump has spoken out against endless wars, but his team wont countenance more attacks on U.S. forces. This could lead to calm, if Tehran appreciates that Washington is serious; toclearer U.S. support for Israels actionsagainst Iran; and to an anchoring of U.S. forces in areas of southern Syria and the autonomous Kurdistan region of Iraq, a stable and safe area where the U.S. is generally welcome.

But Iraq is at a crossroads as well. Three months of Iraqi protests, often against Irans heavy-handed role in the country, means that many Iraqis are disappointed by the abuses of the same militias that target Americans. Iraqs prime minister has resigned because of the protests, and Iraqs president must choose a new leader. Amid a major crises with the U.S. and Iran, Iraqis are caught, held hostage by militias but wanting to avoid another round of fighting.

Iran wants to pressure the U.S. to leave Iraq. So far Trump is keen on a show of force to demonstrate that Iran wont win this round.

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Iran Is Testing U.S. Resolve in Iraq - National Review