Why Iran represents an opportunity for Europe – International Politics and Society
The final result in Irans election was more clear-cut than President Hassan Rouhanis supporters had dared to hope: the incumbent received 23.5 million votes (around 57 percent of the 41+ million votes cast), enough to secure outright victory in the first round. His win allows him to continue the policy of rapprochement that he has pursued since assuming office in 2013, with the 2015 nuclear agreement his biggest success to date. Given the uncertainty emanating from the new US administration, the European Union now has a key part to play. By taking a determined approach on foreign policy, the EU could unshackle itself from the US on a matter of global political importance.
The short but intense election campaign in Iran has shown that lively political debate is possible in the Islamic republic, despite tight controls on the media. Conservatives and moderates went on the offensive, with the former accusing the government of incompetence while the latter denounced the hardliners for wanting to bring back the bad old days of deprivation and no freedom. The Guardian Council, controlled by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, only permitted six (male) candidates to stand out of over 1,600 applicants (including both men and women).
In an emphatic endorsement of the moderate course he has taken, President Rouhani received almost five million more votes than in the 2013 election
Both sides withdrew one of their candidates shortly before voters went to the polls, meaning that from the first round the election was a contest between two clerics: the incumbent Rouhani and his opponent Ebrahim Raisi, the arch-conservative grand imam of the Imam Reza shrine in Mashhad (Irans second-largest city and an important religious centre). The former attorney general, who was virtually unknown a year ago, is regarded as a confidant of Khamenei and possible successor.
With a high turnout of 73 percent, the result is also a victory for the system. In an emphatic endorsement of the moderate course he has taken, President Rouhani received almost five million more votes than in the 2013 election; however, in his second term he will still be able to act only within the limits laid down by the Supreme Leader and the unelected institutions that support him.
For Europe and the international community, the result represents continuity in terms of foreign policy, as the election was a de facto referendum on whether Iran would stick to its nuclear deal (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, JCPOA). This was reflected in the words of the EUs High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Federica Mogherini, who took to Twitter shortly after the result was officially announced to congratulate Rouhani on his "strong mandate". She summarised Europes priorities in under 160 characters: "#EU ready to continue work for full JCPOA implementation, bilat engagement, regional peace, and meet expectations of all people in #Iran"
Since Washington is unlikely to make concessions on sanctions, the EU must take the initiative
She was addressing the main criticism levelled by the presidents opponents, who claim his deal has not brought a promised economic recovery. Although the Iranian economy has grown by almost five percent in the past year and Rouhanis government has managed to bring down inflation from over 40 percent to less than 10, the upswing has not been felt by ordinary Iranians.
Since Washington is unlikely to make concessions on sanctions, the EU must take the initiative, for example by providing financing and payment channels or exercising due diligence to verify that Iranian business partners are not affected by existing sanctions.
Mogherinis second point greater engagement between Europe and Iran is in line with the principle of broad-based, bilateral cooperation with third-party states that is at the heart of European foreign policy. It represents a determination to move beyond a narrow focus on the nuclear question, which dominated the 12 years of negotiations that led up to the signing of the JCPOA.
On both these points, there are frictions with Washington. Both the Trump administration and Congress believe trade with Iran is tantamount to strengthening the Iranian regime. The US is therefore willing to cooperate further with Iran on a very limited set of issues, such as in the fight against so-called "Islamic State" (IS) in Iraq. Members of Congress from either party want to force Iran to its knees with new sanctions over its missile programme and its activities in Syria and Yemen.
Expanding bilateral relations in the face of US resistance will demand courage and farsightedness from the EU.
This is the issue addressed by the third and most ambitious point in Mogherinis tweet: bringing peace to the region. Israel and the neighbouring Persian Gulf states see Teherans support for Shiite militias in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen as a threat. They believe the problem with the JCPOA lies not in temporary restrictions on the Iranian nuclear programme (indeed, they support this restriction) but in the elevation of Teherans status in the regions politics following successful negotiations with the Obama administration. From the Arab and Israeli perspective, Donald Trumps visits to Riyadh and Jerusalem (the first calling points on his maiden foreign tour) represented an important, and not merely symbolic, return to old lines of conflict.
This marks a formidable foreign policy challenge for the EU and its member states. Although Rouhanis re-election means rapprochement between Europe and Iran will continue (provided Iran continues to uphold its JCPOA obligations), tensions with the US are likely to increase. Although the US itself is unlikely to pull out of the actual agreement, it is deliberately endangering the deal with its provocative rhetoric and harsh anti-nuclear measures. The Iranian institutions surrounding the Supreme Leader are likewise opposed to the deal, making an uncontrolled escalation likely.
Expanding bilateral relations in the face of US resistance will demand courage and farsightedness from the EU. Europe demonstrated both these qualities when it began nuclear talks with Iran in 2003. If the EU and its member states build on their diplomatic successes, they could make crucial progress towards another goal: unshackling themselves from the USA on a key security policy issue and showing themselves capable of acting autonomously on the global political stage.
Go here to read the rest:
Why Iran represents an opportunity for Europe - International Politics and Society
- CPI Report Live Updates: Inflation Surges as the Effects of Iran War Show in Prices - The New York Times - April 10th, 2026 [April 10th, 2026]
- Theres growing disquiet in the military. The Iran war made it worse - NPR - April 10th, 2026 [April 10th, 2026]
- Vance warns Iran against 'trying to play' US as he heads to Pakistan for peace talks - BBC - April 10th, 2026 [April 10th, 2026]
- Middle East crisis live: Vance warns Iran not to play US as he heads to Pakistan for talks - The Guardian - April 10th, 2026 [April 10th, 2026]
- Trump started the Iran war with 5 goals. How far has he gotten? - The Washington Post - April 10th, 2026 [April 10th, 2026]
- Trump says Iran doing a very poor job in reopening the Strait of Hormuz - NPR - April 10th, 2026 [April 10th, 2026]
- Trumps Strategic and Moral Failure in Iran - The New Yorker - April 10th, 2026 [April 10th, 2026]
- VP Vance to lead U.S. team in Iran peace talks. And, Artemis II to return to Earth - NPR - April 10th, 2026 [April 10th, 2026]
- The Costs of Trumps Iran-War Folly - The New Yorker - April 10th, 2026 [April 10th, 2026]
- Trump fumes as Iran retains choke hold on Strait of Hormuz ahead of peace talks - The Washington Post - April 10th, 2026 [April 10th, 2026]
- Iran ceasefire: Not an off-ramp for the US but a life-saving ejection seat - Al Jazeera - April 10th, 2026 [April 10th, 2026]
- Islamabad prepares to host US-Iran negotiations as Trump casts doubt on ceasefire | First Thing - The Guardian - April 10th, 2026 [April 10th, 2026]
- Fact-checking Trump and Hegseth's claims of U.S. 'victory' in the Iran war - PBS - April 10th, 2026 [April 10th, 2026]
- Vance Faces a High-Profile Test of His Negotiating Skills With Iran Talks - The New York Times - April 10th, 2026 [April 10th, 2026]
- Well-timed bets on Polymarket tied to the Iran war draw calls for investigations from lawmakers - NPR - April 10th, 2026 [April 10th, 2026]
- S&P 500 is about to wipe out Iran war losses. Why stocks are more optimistic than oil - CNBC - April 10th, 2026 [April 10th, 2026]
- Pete Hegseths holy war: the militant Christian theology animating the US attack on Iran - The Guardian - April 10th, 2026 [April 10th, 2026]
- Iran enters peace talks emboldened but wounded, and wary of Trump - NBC News - April 10th, 2026 [April 10th, 2026]
- Pakistan emerges as a key international player as it mediates between US and Iran - The Times of Israel - April 10th, 2026 [April 10th, 2026]
- Starmer Says He's 'Fed Up' With Trump as Europe Splinters From U.S. Over Iran War - Time Magazine - April 10th, 2026 [April 10th, 2026]
- The high-stakes diplomacy that led to Pakistan hosting US-Iran peace talks - BBC - April 10th, 2026 [April 10th, 2026]
- Vance warns Iran not to 'play' the US as he departs for negotiations aimed at ending their war - AP News - April 10th, 2026 [April 10th, 2026]
- The U.S. has spent billions on the Iran war. What else could that money have bought? - NBC News - April 10th, 2026 [April 10th, 2026]
- 'Good for Russia, good for China, bad for America': how the Iran war is reshaping global economies and power - Fortune - April 10th, 2026 [April 10th, 2026]
- Trump says Iran's handling of Strait of Hormuz is 'not the agreement we have' - BBC - April 10th, 2026 [April 10th, 2026]
- How an ancient resin traded for centuries got snarled up by the Iran war - NPR - April 10th, 2026 [April 10th, 2026]
- Will Trump get a worse Iran deal than Obama? Heres what to know - CNN - April 10th, 2026 [April 10th, 2026]
- Trump reaping bitter fruit of thinking Iran intervention as easy as Venezuela, says former diplomat - The Guardian - April 10th, 2026 [April 10th, 2026]
- US inflation soars in March as war on Iran drives economy into uncertainty - The Guardian - April 10th, 2026 [April 10th, 2026]
- Sen. McCormick on what to expect from U.S.-Iran talks in Pakistan - CNBC - April 10th, 2026 [April 10th, 2026]
- World anxiously waits to see if US-Iran peace talks can deliver. Heres what we know - CNN - April 10th, 2026 [April 10th, 2026]
- Strait still shut and Lebanon fighting strains truce as US and Iran aim for first talks - Reuters - April 10th, 2026 [April 10th, 2026]
- Gulf states rethink security in light of US-Israel war on Iran - The Guardian - April 10th, 2026 [April 10th, 2026]
- The week that supercharged MAGA media feuds over the Iran war - CNN - April 10th, 2026 [April 10th, 2026]
- What We Know About the U.S.-Iran Cease-Fire Talks in Pakistan - The New York Times - April 10th, 2026 [April 10th, 2026]
- Islamabad prepares to host historic negotiations between Iran and the US - The Guardian - April 10th, 2026 [April 10th, 2026]
- Amid Trumps Threats, NATO Labors to Survive the Iran War - The New York Times - April 10th, 2026 [April 10th, 2026]
- Ceasefire deal brings relief to some in Iran, but Trump's threat to end a civilization still echoes - AP News - April 10th, 2026 [April 10th, 2026]
- The US and Iran mull next moves amid shaky truce - Middle East Institute - April 10th, 2026 [April 10th, 2026]
- Vance sent to negotiate with Iran as wars future remains murky: Join Fridays Whole Hog - The Hill - April 10th, 2026 [April 10th, 2026]
- Afraid of being on the outs: Inside JD Vances tightrope walk on Iran - MS NOW - April 10th, 2026 [April 10th, 2026]
- Trump says Iran 'better stop now' if it's charging oil tankers fees to go through Strait of Hormuz - CNBC - April 10th, 2026 [April 10th, 2026]
- China helped broker Iran truce, but its wary of deeper involvement - The Washington Post - April 10th, 2026 [April 10th, 2026]
- How the U.S.-Israeli Strikes on Iran Have Damaged Schools and Hospitals - The New York Times - April 10th, 2026 [April 10th, 2026]
- Khamenei says Tehran astonished the world during US-Israeli war on Iran - Al Jazeera - April 10th, 2026 [April 10th, 2026]
- What has the U.S. war with Iran accomplished? - NPR - April 10th, 2026 [April 10th, 2026]
- Inflation rate rises to 3.3 percent in March amid hiked energy costs from Iran war - The Hill - April 10th, 2026 [April 10th, 2026]
- Trump says Iran is not living up to ceasefire agreement in Strait of Hormuz - The Hill - April 10th, 2026 [April 10th, 2026]
- Inflation rose in March to the highest rate in 2 years as the Iran war lifted energy prices - Business Insider - April 10th, 2026 [April 10th, 2026]
- Trump: There will be no enrichment of uranium in Iran - The Hill - April 8th, 2026 [April 8th, 2026]
- Trump agrees to 2-week ceasefire deal with Iran after threatening to wipe out its 'whole civilization.' How we got here, and what could happen next. -... - April 8th, 2026 [April 8th, 2026]
- Iran War Timeline: Key Moments and Attacks In U.S. and Israels Campaign - The New York Times - April 8th, 2026 [April 8th, 2026]
- Iran halts tanker traffic at Strait of Hormuz after Israeli strikes on Lebanon - Anadolu Ajans - April 8th, 2026 [April 8th, 2026]
- The Iran War Is Hitting California Harder Than Any Other State - WSJ - April 8th, 2026 [April 8th, 2026]
- Trump agrees to 2-week ceasefire, backs down from threats to destroy Iran's infrastructure - PBS - April 8th, 2026 [April 8th, 2026]
- Trump Backs Down, but Questions Remain Over Iran and the Strait of Hormuz - The New York Times - April 8th, 2026 [April 8th, 2026]
- Here's what smart people are saying about Trump's ceasefire deal with Iran - Business Insider - April 8th, 2026 [April 8th, 2026]
- Trumps ceasefire gives Iran control of the Strait of Hormuzand Mojtaba Khamenei is reportedly alive - fortune.com - April 8th, 2026 [April 8th, 2026]
- Opinion | On Iran, Trump Offers No Plan and No End in Sight - The New York Times - April 3rd, 2026 [April 3rd, 2026]
- Macron Voices Europes Frustration With Trumps Handling of Iran War - The New York Times - April 3rd, 2026 [April 3rd, 2026]
- Rationale for Iran war questioned after Trump says I dont care about regimes uranium stockpiles - theguardian.com - April 3rd, 2026 [April 3rd, 2026]
- The Team Behind the A.I. Lego-Style Videos That Lampoon Trumps War in Iran - The New Yorker - April 3rd, 2026 [April 3rd, 2026]
- 'What the hell did he just say?' GOP Iran worries build after Trump speech. - Politico - April 3rd, 2026 [April 3rd, 2026]
- Ros Atkins onthe cost of the Iran war - BBC - April 3rd, 2026 [April 3rd, 2026]
- Iran's focus on survival means same regime still firmly in place - BBC - April 3rd, 2026 [April 3rd, 2026]
- How have Trumps Iran war aims changed and has he achieved any of them? - theguardian.com - April 3rd, 2026 [April 3rd, 2026]
- Hegseth ousts the Army chief of staff as the Iran war rages through Week 5 - NPR - April 3rd, 2026 [April 3rd, 2026]
- What the Iran War Could Mean for Stocks, Bonds and Growth - The New York Times - April 3rd, 2026 [April 3rd, 2026]
- Donald Trump claims US 'nearing completion' of Iran war aims within weeks - BBC - April 3rd, 2026 [April 3rd, 2026]
- Donald Trump says US could take the oil in Iran - Financial Times - April 3rd, 2026 [April 3rd, 2026]
- Europe didnt want an Iran war, yet Trump is saddling it with the consequences - cnn.com - April 3rd, 2026 [April 3rd, 2026]
- Hegseth asks Army's top uniformed officer to step down as U.S. wages war against Iran - PBS - April 3rd, 2026 [April 3rd, 2026]
- Global leaders work to ease oil price surge as Trump signals more weeks of Iran war - PBS - April 3rd, 2026 [April 3rd, 2026]
- Grocery shock on the horizon for approaching U.S. elections as Iran war drags on - CNBC - April 3rd, 2026 [April 3rd, 2026]
- Trump uses Iran war address to urge an increasingly skeptical electorate to give him a bit more time - AP News - April 3rd, 2026 [April 3rd, 2026]
- Everyone is thinking about oil prices: is Iran using the war to hide a surge in executions? - theguardian.com - April 3rd, 2026 [April 3rd, 2026]
- War With Iran Clarifies Trumps Spending Priorities: The Military, Not Child Care - The New York Times - April 3rd, 2026 [April 3rd, 2026]
- How Gulf nations and European allies are responding to Trump's Iran address - PBS - April 3rd, 2026 [April 3rd, 2026]
- On the war in Iran, the public deserved the truth. But Trump offered something else. - MS NOW - April 3rd, 2026 [April 3rd, 2026]
- UK and allies discuss sanctions to stop Iran blocking Strait of Hormuz - BBC - April 3rd, 2026 [April 3rd, 2026]