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Tensions between the United States and Iran, boiling after the U.S. killed Gen. Qassem Suleimani on Jan. 3, have now returned to a simmer. Tehrans ineffective response seems calibrated to avoid a damaging reprisal. But Tehrans reluctance to risk further open hostilities suggests that it will return to its old playbook of asymmetric, indirect attacks against the U.S. The sweet spot for Iran is an attack that wounds the U.S. but has enough murkiness around ultimate responsibility that the Trump administration would struggle to justify a vigorous response.

Africa could be the site of such an attempted revenge tour.

Thanks to recenteffortsby its Middle Eastern rivals, Iran has lost some of the influence it began building across Africa almost immediately after the 1979 revolution. Tehrans networks still weave across parts of the continent, however, offering options that it could tap for an attack.

Hezbollah, Tehrans most formidable terrorist proxy, smuggles everything fromdrugs to peoplethrough West Africa. Major Hezbollah funders have business empires stretching intomultiple African countries.

Moreover, Iranian proselytization in countries such asSenegalandSudanhas created Shiite communities which, though usually small, likely contain some devotees willing to take Iranian orders. The founders of an influential, Iranian-backed Shiite organization in northern Nigeria, in fact, hoped to foment in their own country arevolutionlike Irans.

Before Suleimanis death, the Quds Force he headed was reportedly creating new African capabilities for retaliating against the Trump administrations maximum pressure campaign. Suleimani establishedterror cellsdesigned to hit U.S. and other Western targets on the continent.

Suleimanis death could slow this plan, but his successor, Esmail Qaani, reportedlyranthe Quds Forces Africa operations previously, suggesting he could seamlessly continue Suleimanis project. Iran has also used Africa before: Kenyan authorities have arrested Iranians for involvement in two separateterror plotsagainst Israeli targets in Kenya, so operations there would be a return to familiar territory.

Surely, Tehran recognizes that Africa is one of the easiest regions in the world in which to launch a deniable attack. African terrorist groups have proliferated recently, giving Iranplenty of choiceif it seeks a partner to serve as the face of an attack.

Nearly all African terrorists are Sunni and not natural allies for Shiite Iran, yet Tehran and al Qaeda have previouslyembracedecumenicism long enough to cooperate against the great Satan. Iran and Hezbollahhelped al Qaedalaunch the devastating 1998 bombings of the U.S. embassies in Tanzania and Kenya, and reportedly had links to theIslamic Courts Unionand its successor,al Shabaab, which are both Sunni terrorist organizations from Somalia.

The U.S.'s surveillance and intelligence capabilities are also morethinly stretchedin Africa than in the Middle East, and arumored drawdownof U.S. military personnel in Africa would heighten the challenge of defending against an Iranian plot on a continent three times larger than the Middle East.

There is, as well, a staggering amount of illicit activity in Africa; informal cross-border trade accounts for more than 40% of the continents GDP, for example. This creates enough noise to cloak terrorist undertakings.

The incapacity of many African governments hobbles their ability to disrupt terror activity on their soil; byone measure, 18 of the worlds 25 most fragile states are African. And the great cancer of many African countries,corruption, has already made terrorists jobs far easier there.

Africa has no shortage of potential U.S. targets for an Iranian-backed attack. For instance, thousands of U.S. aid workers operate on the continent, often in remote and insecure areas. In fact, terrorists already frequentlytarget aid workers.

Even the U.S. military presence in Africa has been vulnerable at times, as shown by the recent terrorist attack on a joint U.S.-Kenya military base thatkilled three Americans. Last year, the U.S. had 29 military sites on the continent, though not all of them are manned full time.

The Trump administrations killing of Suleimani has made Iran wary of openly provoking the U.S., but it is not going to abandon four decades of hell-raising now. Tehran may decide that Africa, sprinkled with Iranian networks, burdened with swathes of territory ungoverned by any legitimate authority, and target-rich, is just the right place for a series of deniable, asymmetric attacks against U.S. interests there.

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Where Will Iran Strike Back Against the U.S.? - Heritage.org