Turkey’s Article 5 reversal; Russia’s disinfo in Lithuania; NATO spending ideas; Iran-Russia-China plan naval wargames; And a bit more. – Defense One
In a sudden reversal, Turkey is now ok with NATOs Baltic defense plan. Thats the word from NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who said today in London that Turkeys President Recep Erdogan has dropped his threat of refusing to support an alliance-wide plan to defend the Baltic states of Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Poland from possible invasion by Russia. It was an unusual threat from a NATO ally, and alliance officials made it public last week in remarks to Reuters.
What Erdogan wanted in return for supporting Baltic defense: For fellow NATO nations to recognize the Kurdish YPG in Syria which is a U.S.- and coalition-backed militia fighting ISIS as a terrorist group, and to do it in some sort of formaldocument.
What Turkey got: Unclear just yet. But U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper was asked Tuesday if he would support, as Reuters writes, branding the YPG as terrorists in order to break the deadlock. Esper replied, I wouldnt support that. Were going to stick to our positions, and I think NATO will aswell.
U.S. President Donald Trump spoke to Erdogan today in an unannounced meeting that lasted about 30 minutes, according to Erdogans office, which released photos before the White House shared any details with the press. According to the Whitie House, the two men discussed the importance of Turkey fulfilling its alliance commitments, further strengthening commerce through boosting bilateral trade by $100 billion, regional security challenges, and energy security. A bit more from Politico, here.
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By the way: We wont be doing a press conference at the close of NATO because we did so many over the past two days, Trump tweeted this morning. (Politico called it an abrupt cancellation after tense exchanges with world leaders. More on those tensions in the bulletsbelow.)
So whats the alliances message to the world on its 70th anniversary? NATO guarantees the security of our territory and our one billion citizens, our freedom, and the values we share, including democracy, individual liberty, human rights, and the rule of law, according to the alliances London Declaration, which was releasedtoday.
The rest of the nine-point document reaffirms Article 5, the two-percent defense investment guidelines, references Russias aggressive actions, cyber and hybrid threats, irregular migration, challenges to the rules-based international order, the demise of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, commitment to keeping in place NATOs Open Door policy, 5G security, and Chinas growing influence and internationalpolicies.
Here are some of todays headlines summarizing developments inLondon:
Russian Trolls Are Hammering Away at NATOs Presence in Lithuania // Patrick Tucker: A broad disinformation campaign of fake news and other tricks aims to turn the Baltic nations public against thealliance.
NATO Should Count Spending on Secure 5G Towards Its 2% Goals // Lindsay Gorman: Getting 5G right is key to the alliances veryfuture.
NATOs Newest Threat Is Coming From Inside the House / Kevin Baron: Worry less about the gaps between NATO leaders, and more about the gap between those leaders and the national securitycommunity.
Three Tweaks to Foster Innovative Defense Products / Jeff Decker: Even the Pentagon cant lavish billionaire-level cash on every promising tech startup but it can make several moves thathelp.
Welcome to this Wednesday edition of The D Brief from Ben Watson. If youre not already subscribed, you can do that here. On this day in 1941, the Chicago Tribune and the Washington Herald published secret U.S. plans to invade Europe and defeat Hitler in1943.
Pentagon officials say Iran may soon attack U.S. forces in the Middle East. Thats according to CNNs Barbara Starr, who tweeted around 6 p.m. on Tuesday: There is fresh intelligence in last month of a potential Iranian threat against US forces and interests in the Middle East according to several US defense and administration officials speaking to CNN.Where this comes from: Alleged evidence Iran has moved forces and weapons, though there was no indication at this time Iran regime has made any decision to attack U.S. forces.The Pentagons No. 3 official, John Rood, is saying that today, too, according to Reuters, which notes Rood did not provide details about what information he was basing that concern on or anytimeline.
Syrians say U.S. raid on Baghdadi also killed civilians. NPR: A Syrian farmer says his arm was blown off and his two friends were killed by U.S. helicopter fire in the village where American special forces were attacking the compound of ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in October. His account is supported by analysis of photos of shrapnel and of a damaged van.That belies a Pentagon statement that said special forces protected all of the non-combatants during the Oct. 26 raid.The U.S. military will review the incident, a defense official told NPR. Read on, here.
North Koreas leader hopped on a horse again, so the images are making their way across the interwebs quickly. AP puts them in context, here.
Iran, Russia and China finally announced joint naval exercises, according to Russias state-run TASS. The drills are expected to begin Dec. 22 and run through January 20. Writes the Washington Posts Liz Sly, who flagged the announcement on Twitter: Its been long promised; now theres a date. A potential challenge to the U.S. & a big boost forIran.
Anyone interested in a real spy story? Bellingcats Eliot Higgins this week flagged a new report from his fellow open-source sleuths all about how Russia recruited a hitman who murdered a Russian businessman in 2013, gave him a new identity, and then he was arrested in 2019 in Berlin for the murder of Zelimkhan Khangoshvili.Khangoshvili had previously fought alongside anti-Moscow separatists in Chechnya, Reuters reports today. Khangoshvili was shot twice in the head in a central Berlin park in August as he was heading to a mosque.Russias reax: This is absolutely groundless speculation, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said today.By the way: Germany just booted two Russian diplomats out of the country on allegations Russia is refusing to cooperate in the Khangoshvili investigation. More from Reuters, here.
ICYMI: A former Green Beret is running against a former SEAL in Virginia to unseat a former CIA agent in the House. AP has the story, here.
Former Marine officer, Rep. Duncan Hunter pleaded guilty Tuesday to one count of conspiracy in a case surrounding his alleged misuse of $250,000 in campaign donations for personal expenses such as family vacations and oral surgeries, ABC News reported after months of denials from the California Republican.Hunter said he pleaded guilty for his children. I think itd be really tough for them, he said. Its hard enough being the kids of a public figure, and I think its time for them to live life outside the spotlight. Story, here.
Do you want to end Americas endless wars? So does George Soros and Charles Koch. Politicos Brian Bender explains why a new think tank called the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft is opening today in Washington, here.
Lastly today in NCAA football,No. 25 Air Force is ranked for the first time since 2010. With Navy at No. 23, there are two service academies ranked at the same time for the first time since Oct. 14,1985.
- Opinion | Wasnt Hell Supposed to Break Loose if the U.S. Struck Iran? - The Wall Street Journal - September 13th, 2025 [September 13th, 2025]
- After wedding was canceled due to Iran war, Avner Netanyahu calls off his engagement - The Times of Israel - September 13th, 2025 [September 13th, 2025]
- Iran-Contra figures Oliver North and Fawn Hall marry after 40 years - BBC - September 13th, 2025 [September 13th, 2025]
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- Iran Says Withdrawal from NPT Remains an Option if Snapback Triggered - WANA News Agency - September 13th, 2025 [September 13th, 2025]
- Iran committed to developing sustainable, clean energy - Tehran Times - September 13th, 2025 [September 13th, 2025]
- Iran, Iraq sign MOU to beef up ties in combating narcotics - Tehran Times - September 13th, 2025 [September 13th, 2025]
- Salutes and anthems: how sports succumbed to Iran's culture war - - September 13th, 2025 [September 13th, 2025]
- Woman, Life, Freedom Uprising sparked social revolution in E.Kurdistan, Iran - ANHA - September 13th, 2025 [September 13th, 2025]
- Iran and Tunisia Forge New Path in Economic and Tourism Cooperation - Travel And Tour World - September 13th, 2025 [September 13th, 2025]
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- Iran warns it will withdraw from fresh IAEA agreement if Europe invokes "snapback" sanctions - Peoples Dispatch - September 13th, 2025 [September 13th, 2025]
- Kordestan, a hidden treasure in west of Iran - Tehran Times - September 13th, 2025 [September 13th, 2025]
- Iran to take part in five intl. tourism fairs - Tehran Times - September 13th, 2025 [September 13th, 2025]
- US seizes nearly $600k in crypto from Iranian tied to IRGC drones | Iran International - - September 13th, 2025 [September 13th, 2025]
- Iran publishes footage and testimonies from 11-day conflict with Israel - Middle East Eye - September 11th, 2025 [September 11th, 2025]
- Nuclear watchdog chief announces breakthrough on Iran monitoring - Department of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs - September 11th, 2025 [September 11th, 2025]
- Iran, IAEA announce agreement on resuming nuclear inspections - Reuters - September 11th, 2025 [September 11th, 2025]
- War or Peace, Win or Lose TV satellite program in Iran started its encouraging work - Mission Network News - September 11th, 2025 [September 11th, 2025]
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- The Clerical Regimes Endure and Suffer Tactic: Crushing Iran's Society Through Systemic Deprivation - National Council of Resistance of Iran - NCRI - September 11th, 2025 [September 11th, 2025]
- US offers $15 million reward over Iran's Revolutionary Guards network - - September 11th, 2025 [September 11th, 2025]
- Iran Arrests Three 17-Year-Olds, Transfers Them to Undisclosed Locations - IranWire - September 11th, 2025 [September 11th, 2025]
- New Trump Corridor Leaves Iran Scrambling to Preserve Influence in the South Caucasus - Stimson Center - September 11th, 2025 [September 11th, 2025]
- IAEA chief says agreement reached with Iran on resuming inspections - Anadolu Ajans - September 11th, 2025 [September 11th, 2025]
- Opinion: With Traditional Proxies Sidelined, Iran Sets Its Sights on Sudan - Philadelphia Jewish Exponent - September 11th, 2025 [September 11th, 2025]
- Iran says more talks needed to bring about IAEA inspections - Reuters - September 11th, 2025 [September 11th, 2025]
- Iran says deal with IAEA does not yet guarantee inspectors access to nuclear sites - The Times of Israel - September 11th, 2025 [September 11th, 2025]
- Iran-IAEA 'deal' on broader nuclear standoff unclear, with contradicting reports on inspections - The Jerusalem Post - September 11th, 2025 [September 11th, 2025]
- Israel and Iran: Major Threats to Middle East Stability - The Cairo Review of Global Affairs - September 11th, 2025 [September 11th, 2025]
- Iran Automotive Market - Ken Research Stated the Sector Valued at ~IRR 38 billion with Strong Growth Potential - openPR.com - September 11th, 2025 [September 11th, 2025]
- Explainer: What does the new agreement between Iran and IAEA entail - PressTV - September 11th, 2025 [September 11th, 2025]
- Iran, UN nuclear watchdog reach understanding on cooperation - KSL.com - September 11th, 2025 [September 11th, 2025]
- Iran and IAEA Seal Cairo Understanding To Restart Inspections - The Media Line - September 11th, 2025 [September 11th, 2025]
- Oliver North And Fawn Hall, Key Players In The Iran-Contra Scandal, Are Married - MSN - September 11th, 2025 [September 11th, 2025]
- 'Little Iran' signage coming to part of Yonge St. in October - MSN - September 11th, 2025 [September 11th, 2025]
- Iran will exchange nuclear monitoring for lifted sanctions, says its foreign minister - The Guardian - September 9th, 2025 [September 9th, 2025]
- After Israeli, US strikes, Europeans hope snapback threats push Iran to tougher nuclear deal - The Times of Israel - September 9th, 2025 [September 9th, 2025]
- IAEA chief notes progress in Iran talks over nuclear site inspections - Al Jazeera - September 9th, 2025 [September 9th, 2025]
- Iran Sends Warning Over Nuclear Sanctions - Newsweek - September 9th, 2025 [September 9th, 2025]
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- Restoring IAEA Inspections in Iran Would Create Promising Ground for Wider Progress, Says Director General Grossi - IAEA - September 9th, 2025 [September 9th, 2025]
- Severe Water Crisis and Regular Blackouts Threaten to Push Iran to the Brink - cbn.com - September 9th, 2025 [September 9th, 2025]
- Iran Witnesses Protests Over Corruption, Repression, and State Failure - National Council of Resistance of Iran - NCRI - September 9th, 2025 [September 9th, 2025]
- Trump considers banning Iranian diplomats from shopping at Costco: Hit Iran where it hurts - Fox Business - September 9th, 2025 [September 9th, 2025]
- Iran Culture Ministry Official Fired After Backlash from Conservatives - IranWire - September 9th, 2025 [September 9th, 2025]
- Iran: Protests, Strikes in Semirom Following Execution of Political Prisoner Mehran Bahramian - National Council of Resistance of Iran - NCRI - September 9th, 2025 [September 9th, 2025]
- The people stood up: how war turned Iran towards everyday nationalism - The Guardian - September 9th, 2025 [September 9th, 2025]
- Iran-Contra figures Oliver North and Fawn Hall secretly marry 40 years after scandal: report - New York Post - September 9th, 2025 [September 9th, 2025]
- Irans Economic Strain and Unrest Fears Drive Khameneis Push for Narrative Control - National Council of Resistance of Iran - NCRI - September 9th, 2025 [September 9th, 2025]
- When Israel attacked Iran, it rekindled memories and sparked new dreamsfor those who'd left decades ago - Israel from the Inside with Daniel Gordis - September 9th, 2025 [September 9th, 2025]
- UN nuclear watchdog warns Iran time running out for talks on inspections - The Times of Israel - September 9th, 2025 [September 9th, 2025]
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- Under Ayatollah Khameneis Leadership, Iran Is the Pillar of the Islamic Ummah - taghribnews.com - September 9th, 2025 [September 9th, 2025]
- Trump chides senator over Declaration of Independence analogy to Iran - - September 9th, 2025 [September 9th, 2025]
- What Aspiring Nuclear Powers Learned From Israels Strikes on Iran - IranWire - September 9th, 2025 [September 9th, 2025]
- Iran caught in nuclear standoff between Trump, Europe and Khamenei - Le Monde.fr - September 9th, 2025 [September 9th, 2025]
- Iran urges South Korea to take responsible stance on E3s illegitimate snapback move - PressTV - September 9th, 2025 [September 9th, 2025]
- Iranians Rally in Brussels Marking 60th Anniversary of the Peoples Mojahedin Organization of Iran - irannewsupdate.com - September 9th, 2025 [September 9th, 2025]
- Iran reasserts indisputable sovereignty over three Persian Gulf islands - PressTV - September 9th, 2025 [September 9th, 2025]
- Kneeling Bull: A 5,000-year-old hybrid creature from Iran with a mysterious purpose - Live Science - September 9th, 2025 [September 9th, 2025]
- Five mcm/d of Russian gas to start flowing to Iran: Iran Envoy - IranOilGas - September 9th, 2025 [September 9th, 2025]
- Iran: Resistance Units Mark MEKs 60th Anniversary with 60 Image Projections in 20 Cities - National Council of Resistance of Iran - NCRI - September 6th, 2025 [September 6th, 2025]
- UK Government Labels Iran a Persistent and Multi-Layered Threat in New Security Assessment - National Council of Resistance of Iran - NCRI - September 6th, 2025 [September 6th, 2025]
- Mideast Iran Islamic Revolution Anniversary - Martinsville Bulletin - September 6th, 2025 [September 6th, 2025]
- Louisiana congressman grateful for snapback sanctions on Iran, says they must be enforced - JNS.org - September 6th, 2025 [September 6th, 2025]
- Iran executes man over attack on security forces at 2022 Mahsa Amini protests - The Times of Israel - September 6th, 2025 [September 6th, 2025]
- Iran executes man over attack on security forces during 2022 Mahsa Amini protests - The Times of Israel - September 6th, 2025 [September 6th, 2025]
- Iran paves over mass grave of 1979 revolution victims, turning it into a parking lot - ABC News - September 6th, 2025 [September 6th, 2025]
- Tens of Thousands Rally in Brussels Marking the 60th Anniversary of the PMOI, Calling for a Free Iran - National Council of Resistance of Iran - NCRI - September 6th, 2025 [September 6th, 2025]
- 'No Business As Usual': Iran FM Rules Out Pre-war Terms For Nuclear Talks - i24NEWS - September 6th, 2025 [September 6th, 2025]
- Irans Clerical Regime Confronts Rising Fear of the PMOI and an Explosive Society - National Council of Resistance of Iran - NCRI - September 6th, 2025 [September 6th, 2025]
- Iran executes man involved in 2022 uprising over women's rights - Reuters - September 6th, 2025 [September 6th, 2025]
- Iran says calls from Japan and Australia for diplomacy hypocritical - Tehran Times - September 6th, 2025 [September 6th, 2025]
- Iran Unveils New Rural Literary Tourism Route In Kandelous, Mazandaran, Linking Local Folklore With Culture And Ecotourism, Get All The Details Here -... - September 6th, 2025 [September 6th, 2025]