Turkey’s Article 5 reversal; Russia’s disinfo in Lithuania; NATO spending ideas; Iran-Russia-China plan naval wargames; And a bit more. – Defense One
In a sudden reversal, Turkey is now ok with NATOs Baltic defense plan. Thats the word from NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who said today in London that Turkeys President Recep Erdogan has dropped his threat of refusing to support an alliance-wide plan to defend the Baltic states of Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Poland from possible invasion by Russia. It was an unusual threat from a NATO ally, and alliance officials made it public last week in remarks to Reuters.
What Erdogan wanted in return for supporting Baltic defense: For fellow NATO nations to recognize the Kurdish YPG in Syria which is a U.S.- and coalition-backed militia fighting ISIS as a terrorist group, and to do it in some sort of formaldocument.
What Turkey got: Unclear just yet. But U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper was asked Tuesday if he would support, as Reuters writes, branding the YPG as terrorists in order to break the deadlock. Esper replied, I wouldnt support that. Were going to stick to our positions, and I think NATO will aswell.
U.S. President Donald Trump spoke to Erdogan today in an unannounced meeting that lasted about 30 minutes, according to Erdogans office, which released photos before the White House shared any details with the press. According to the Whitie House, the two men discussed the importance of Turkey fulfilling its alliance commitments, further strengthening commerce through boosting bilateral trade by $100 billion, regional security challenges, and energy security. A bit more from Politico, here.
Subscribe
Receive daily email updates:
Subscribe to the Defense One daily.
Be the first to receive updates.
By the way: We wont be doing a press conference at the close of NATO because we did so many over the past two days, Trump tweeted this morning. (Politico called it an abrupt cancellation after tense exchanges with world leaders. More on those tensions in the bulletsbelow.)
So whats the alliances message to the world on its 70th anniversary? NATO guarantees the security of our territory and our one billion citizens, our freedom, and the values we share, including democracy, individual liberty, human rights, and the rule of law, according to the alliances London Declaration, which was releasedtoday.
The rest of the nine-point document reaffirms Article 5, the two-percent defense investment guidelines, references Russias aggressive actions, cyber and hybrid threats, irregular migration, challenges to the rules-based international order, the demise of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, commitment to keeping in place NATOs Open Door policy, 5G security, and Chinas growing influence and internationalpolicies.
Here are some of todays headlines summarizing developments inLondon:
Russian Trolls Are Hammering Away at NATOs Presence in Lithuania // Patrick Tucker: A broad disinformation campaign of fake news and other tricks aims to turn the Baltic nations public against thealliance.
NATO Should Count Spending on Secure 5G Towards Its 2% Goals // Lindsay Gorman: Getting 5G right is key to the alliances veryfuture.
NATOs Newest Threat Is Coming From Inside the House / Kevin Baron: Worry less about the gaps between NATO leaders, and more about the gap between those leaders and the national securitycommunity.
Three Tweaks to Foster Innovative Defense Products / Jeff Decker: Even the Pentagon cant lavish billionaire-level cash on every promising tech startup but it can make several moves thathelp.
Welcome to this Wednesday edition of The D Brief from Ben Watson. If youre not already subscribed, you can do that here. On this day in 1941, the Chicago Tribune and the Washington Herald published secret U.S. plans to invade Europe and defeat Hitler in1943.
Pentagon officials say Iran may soon attack U.S. forces in the Middle East. Thats according to CNNs Barbara Starr, who tweeted around 6 p.m. on Tuesday: There is fresh intelligence in last month of a potential Iranian threat against US forces and interests in the Middle East according to several US defense and administration officials speaking to CNN.Where this comes from: Alleged evidence Iran has moved forces and weapons, though there was no indication at this time Iran regime has made any decision to attack U.S. forces.The Pentagons No. 3 official, John Rood, is saying that today, too, according to Reuters, which notes Rood did not provide details about what information he was basing that concern on or anytimeline.
Syrians say U.S. raid on Baghdadi also killed civilians. NPR: A Syrian farmer says his arm was blown off and his two friends were killed by U.S. helicopter fire in the village where American special forces were attacking the compound of ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in October. His account is supported by analysis of photos of shrapnel and of a damaged van.That belies a Pentagon statement that said special forces protected all of the non-combatants during the Oct. 26 raid.The U.S. military will review the incident, a defense official told NPR. Read on, here.
North Koreas leader hopped on a horse again, so the images are making their way across the interwebs quickly. AP puts them in context, here.
Iran, Russia and China finally announced joint naval exercises, according to Russias state-run TASS. The drills are expected to begin Dec. 22 and run through January 20. Writes the Washington Posts Liz Sly, who flagged the announcement on Twitter: Its been long promised; now theres a date. A potential challenge to the U.S. & a big boost forIran.
Anyone interested in a real spy story? Bellingcats Eliot Higgins this week flagged a new report from his fellow open-source sleuths all about how Russia recruited a hitman who murdered a Russian businessman in 2013, gave him a new identity, and then he was arrested in 2019 in Berlin for the murder of Zelimkhan Khangoshvili.Khangoshvili had previously fought alongside anti-Moscow separatists in Chechnya, Reuters reports today. Khangoshvili was shot twice in the head in a central Berlin park in August as he was heading to a mosque.Russias reax: This is absolutely groundless speculation, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said today.By the way: Germany just booted two Russian diplomats out of the country on allegations Russia is refusing to cooperate in the Khangoshvili investigation. More from Reuters, here.
ICYMI: A former Green Beret is running against a former SEAL in Virginia to unseat a former CIA agent in the House. AP has the story, here.
Former Marine officer, Rep. Duncan Hunter pleaded guilty Tuesday to one count of conspiracy in a case surrounding his alleged misuse of $250,000 in campaign donations for personal expenses such as family vacations and oral surgeries, ABC News reported after months of denials from the California Republican.Hunter said he pleaded guilty for his children. I think itd be really tough for them, he said. Its hard enough being the kids of a public figure, and I think its time for them to live life outside the spotlight. Story, here.
Do you want to end Americas endless wars? So does George Soros and Charles Koch. Politicos Brian Bender explains why a new think tank called the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft is opening today in Washington, here.
Lastly today in NCAA football,No. 25 Air Force is ranked for the first time since 2010. With Navy at No. 23, there are two service academies ranked at the same time for the first time since Oct. 14,1985.
- Whenever Miriam Adelsons mouthpiece pushes a dramatic claim about Iran, its worth asking who it serves. Even the U.S. President has acknowledged where... - February 11th, 2026 [February 11th, 2026]
- Iran rules out broader U.S. talks as Trump hints at sending 2nd carrier - NBC News - February 11th, 2026 [February 11th, 2026]
- Trump says he insisted to Netanyahu that Iran talks go on, as PM stresses security needs - The Times of Israel - February 11th, 2026 [February 11th, 2026]
- UN chief blasted as abjectly tone-deaf over message to Iran marking revolution anniversary - Fox News - February 11th, 2026 [February 11th, 2026]
- Netanyahu returns to Washington this time to shape a deal with Iran, not fight one - The Forward - February 11th, 2026 [February 11th, 2026]
- Trump alludes to potential military action if Iran refuses to negotiate its nuclear program - Fox Business - February 11th, 2026 [February 11th, 2026]
- Mideast experts on what Israel wants from U.S.-Iran nuclear discussions - PBS - February 11th, 2026 [February 11th, 2026]
- Trump continues to threaten Iran to come to deal after meeting with Netanyahu - Politico - February 11th, 2026 [February 11th, 2026]
- Trump says Iran negotiations will continue after meeting with Israeli PM - wng.org - February 11th, 2026 [February 11th, 2026]
- Turkish foreign minister warns of nuclear arms race if Iran gets the bomb - Long War Journal - February 11th, 2026 [February 11th, 2026]
- Trump threatens Iran with something very tough if US demands are not met - Al Jazeera - February 11th, 2026 [February 11th, 2026]
- Trump says no 'definitive' agreement with Netanyahu, US talks with Iran to continue - Reuters - February 11th, 2026 [February 11th, 2026]
- Pezeshkian says Iran 'ready to hear voice of the people' - The Jerusalem Post - February 11th, 2026 [February 11th, 2026]
- Iran Commemorates Revolution, With U.S. Warships Lurking Off the Coast - The New York Times - February 11th, 2026 [February 11th, 2026]
- Nothing definitive on Iran, Trump says of meeting with Netanyahu - JNS.org - February 11th, 2026 [February 11th, 2026]
- Netanyahu to discuss potential Iran strikes with Trump as Washington and Tehran resume talks - CNN - February 11th, 2026 [February 11th, 2026]
- Trump insisted that US talks with Iran will continue as Netanyahu pushes for their expansion - France 24 - February 11th, 2026 [February 11th, 2026]
- Trump 'insisted' Iran talks continue in meeting with Netanyahu - Middle East Eye - February 11th, 2026 [February 11th, 2026]
- Why Netanyahu raced to Washington over Iran - - February 11th, 2026 [February 11th, 2026]
- US-based activists raise death toll in Iran protest crackdown to over 7,000 - The Times of Israel - February 11th, 2026 [February 11th, 2026]
- Machine guns to machetes: Weapons that massacred thousands in Iran - BBC - February 11th, 2026 [February 11th, 2026]
- Trump Reverts to Diplomacy With Iran, but the Road Is Narrow - The New York Times - February 11th, 2026 [February 11th, 2026]
- After meeting with Netanyahu, Trump warns Iran to be more reasonable - WPLG Local 10 - February 11th, 2026 [February 11th, 2026]
- Trump says Iran talks will continue after very good meeting with Netanyahu - The Independent - February 11th, 2026 [February 11th, 2026]
- Trump says he 'insisted' to Netanyahu that US talks with Iran continue over nuclear programme - Euronews.com - February 11th, 2026 [February 11th, 2026]
- Trump confirms more talks with Iran as Tehran stands firm on nuclear enrichment. Heres what to know - CNN - February 11th, 2026 [February 11th, 2026]
- Talks with US set to continue after 'good beginning', Iran's foreign minister says - BBC - February 11th, 2026 [February 11th, 2026]
- Trump signs executive order threatening tariffs for countries trading with Iran - BBC - February 11th, 2026 [February 11th, 2026]
- Iran says talks with US in Oman were 'good start', will continue - Reuters - February 11th, 2026 [February 11th, 2026]
- Oil Prices Surge: Impact of US-Iran Relations on Markets - Global Banking & Finance Review - February 11th, 2026 [February 11th, 2026]
- The violence in Iran could lead to civil war - The Economist - February 2nd, 2026 [February 2nd, 2026]
- U.S. and Iran plan talks in Istanbul, as Trump warns of bad things - The Washington Post - February 2nd, 2026 [February 2nd, 2026]
- Trump says talks with Iran ongoing - Reuters - February 2nd, 2026 [February 2nd, 2026]
- Trump pairs deal talk with war threats ahead of Iran negotiations - - February 2nd, 2026 [February 2nd, 2026]
- As US and Iran set for talks, Trump warns bad things will happen if no deal reached - The Times of Israel - February 2nd, 2026 [February 2nd, 2026]
- U.S. and Iran may hold talks in Istanbul on Friday as Trump weighs military action - NBC News - February 2nd, 2026 [February 2nd, 2026]
- Iran summons EU ambassadors to protest Revolutionary Guard being listed as a terror group - ABC News - February 2nd, 2026 [February 2nd, 2026]
- Oscar-Nominated Screenwriter Arrested in Iran for Criticizing Regime - The New York Times - February 2nd, 2026 [February 2nd, 2026]
- U.S. and Iran expected to hold nuclear talks on Friday, sources say - NBC News - February 2nd, 2026 [February 2nd, 2026]
- Iran rebuilds nuclear sites as US weighs strike - The Jerusalem Post - February 2nd, 2026 [February 2nd, 2026]
- Trump says big ships are heading to Iran right now in new threat - latest - The Independent - February 2nd, 2026 [February 2nd, 2026]
- Co-writer of Oscar-nominated film It Was Just an Accident arrested in Iran - The Guardian - February 2nd, 2026 [February 2nd, 2026]
- Ahead of Friday nuclear talks with Iran, Witkoff heading to Israel to meet PM, Zamir - The Times of Israel - February 2nd, 2026 [February 2nd, 2026]
- Israel to push for US to demand that Iran give up nuclear program, missiles, proxies report - The Times of Israel - February 2nd, 2026 [February 2nd, 2026]
- Iran has repeatedly proved itself untrustworthy in negotiations: Brit Hume - Fox News - February 2nd, 2026 [February 2nd, 2026]
- U.S. tells Iran it is ready to meet and negotiate a deal - Axios - February 2nd, 2026 [February 2nd, 2026]
- Voices from inside Iran : State of the World from NPR - NPR - February 2nd, 2026 [February 2nd, 2026]
- US, Iran signal talks to avert military conflict amid tensions in the Gulf - Al Jazeera - February 2nd, 2026 [February 2nd, 2026]
- Trump weighs diplomacy with Iran amid rising tensions - Fox News - February 2nd, 2026 [February 2nd, 2026]
- Alarm grows over detention of doctors who treated Iran protesters - - February 2nd, 2026 [February 2nd, 2026]
- Interview with the Director of Iranian Studies: How the West Gets Iran Wrong - The Stanford Review - February 2nd, 2026 [February 2nd, 2026]
- Talks Are Iran's Last Chance to Avoid Confrontation With Trump but Wide Gaps Remain - Haaretz - February 2nd, 2026 [February 2nd, 2026]
- Iran's foreign minister says Tehran ready to resume nuclear talks with U.S. - Axios - February 2nd, 2026 [February 2nd, 2026]
- Iran heads for make or break this week over averting war with US - Sky News - February 2nd, 2026 [February 2nd, 2026]
- US, Iran ready to talk, with mediators organizing meeting in Ankara report - The Times of Israel - February 2nd, 2026 [February 2nd, 2026]
- Iran and U.S. to hold nuclear talks on Friday as Trump warns Tehran - The Japan Times - February 2nd, 2026 [February 2nd, 2026]
- Trump tells Iran to drop nuclear aims and stop killing protesters to avoid military action - BBC - February 2nd, 2026 [February 2nd, 2026]
- Iran orders talks with US as Trump warns of 'bad things' if no deal reached - The Mountaineer - February 2nd, 2026 [February 2nd, 2026]
- The War Room newsletter: Three ways Donald Trump could strike Iran - The Economist - January 26th, 2026 [January 26th, 2026]
- Aircraft carrier reaches Middle East, bolstering Iran options for Trump - The Washington Post - January 26th, 2026 [January 26th, 2026]
- Iran Protest Death Toll Could Top 30,000, According to Local Health Officials - Time Magazine - January 26th, 2026 [January 26th, 2026]
- Iran offline: How a government can turn off the internet : Short Wave - NPR - January 26th, 2026 [January 26th, 2026]
- Lebanon's Hezbollah chief says group concerned with confronting US threat against Iran - Reuters - January 26th, 2026 [January 26th, 2026]
- New Iran videos show bodies piled in hospital and snipers on roofs - BBC - January 26th, 2026 [January 26th, 2026]
- US Official says Washington is open for business if Iran wishes to contact them - Reuters - January 26th, 2026 [January 26th, 2026]
- Trump warned off Iran strikes in 'you will reap the whirlwind' threat - Sky News - January 26th, 2026 [January 26th, 2026]
- Airlines Are Suspending Flights to Dubai, Iran, and IsraelHere's What to Know - Cond Nast Traveler - January 26th, 2026 [January 26th, 2026]
- Pools of blood, hundreds of gunshots: I am a surgeon in Iran - this is the horror Ive witnessed in the crackdown - The Guardian - January 26th, 2026 [January 26th, 2026]
- US Aircraft Carrier Arrives in the Middle East as Tensions With Iran Remain High - Military.com - January 26th, 2026 [January 26th, 2026]
- Italy pushes for EU clampdown on Iran's Revolutionary Guard over 'heinous acts - Reuters - January 26th, 2026 [January 26th, 2026]
- After mass killings, bodies of Iran's slain leveraged to quash dissent - - January 26th, 2026 [January 26th, 2026]
- Iran tensions: US aircraft carrier, warships arrive in Middle East - Times of India - January 26th, 2026 [January 26th, 2026]
- Italy urges EU to list Iran's Revolutionary Guards as terror group - Euronews.com - January 26th, 2026 [January 26th, 2026]
- USS Abraham Lincoln returns to the Middle East amid rising tensions with Iran - Task & Purpose - January 26th, 2026 [January 26th, 2026]
- US warships arrive in Middle East amid fears Trump will finally order Iran strike - The Independent - January 26th, 2026 [January 26th, 2026]
- Trump: Iran wants to talk, situation in flux after US sent big armada to Mideast - timesofisrael.com - January 26th, 2026 [January 26th, 2026]
- US Official Says Washington Is Open for Business if Iran Wishes to Contact Them - U.S. News & World Report - January 26th, 2026 [January 26th, 2026]
- Scale of Iran's nationwide protests and bloody crackdown come into focus even as internet is out - ABC News - January 24th, 2026 [January 24th, 2026]
- Iran's Ayatollah Khamenei moves to underground bunker amid fears of US strike - report - jpost.com - January 24th, 2026 [January 24th, 2026]
- Iran-US tensions LIVE: Trump gets new trigger ready threat from Tehran, India gets a thank you note - Hindustan Times - January 24th, 2026 [January 24th, 2026]