Turkey’s Article 5 reversal; Russia’s disinfo in Lithuania; NATO spending ideas; Iran-Russia-China plan naval wargames; And a bit more. – Defense One
In a sudden reversal, Turkey is now ok with NATOs Baltic defense plan. Thats the word from NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who said today in London that Turkeys President Recep Erdogan has dropped his threat of refusing to support an alliance-wide plan to defend the Baltic states of Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Poland from possible invasion by Russia. It was an unusual threat from a NATO ally, and alliance officials made it public last week in remarks to Reuters.
What Erdogan wanted in return for supporting Baltic defense: For fellow NATO nations to recognize the Kurdish YPG in Syria which is a U.S.- and coalition-backed militia fighting ISIS as a terrorist group, and to do it in some sort of formaldocument.
What Turkey got: Unclear just yet. But U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper was asked Tuesday if he would support, as Reuters writes, branding the YPG as terrorists in order to break the deadlock. Esper replied, I wouldnt support that. Were going to stick to our positions, and I think NATO will aswell.
U.S. President Donald Trump spoke to Erdogan today in an unannounced meeting that lasted about 30 minutes, according to Erdogans office, which released photos before the White House shared any details with the press. According to the Whitie House, the two men discussed the importance of Turkey fulfilling its alliance commitments, further strengthening commerce through boosting bilateral trade by $100 billion, regional security challenges, and energy security. A bit more from Politico, here.
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By the way: We wont be doing a press conference at the close of NATO because we did so many over the past two days, Trump tweeted this morning. (Politico called it an abrupt cancellation after tense exchanges with world leaders. More on those tensions in the bulletsbelow.)
So whats the alliances message to the world on its 70th anniversary? NATO guarantees the security of our territory and our one billion citizens, our freedom, and the values we share, including democracy, individual liberty, human rights, and the rule of law, according to the alliances London Declaration, which was releasedtoday.
The rest of the nine-point document reaffirms Article 5, the two-percent defense investment guidelines, references Russias aggressive actions, cyber and hybrid threats, irregular migration, challenges to the rules-based international order, the demise of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, commitment to keeping in place NATOs Open Door policy, 5G security, and Chinas growing influence and internationalpolicies.
Here are some of todays headlines summarizing developments inLondon:
Russian Trolls Are Hammering Away at NATOs Presence in Lithuania // Patrick Tucker: A broad disinformation campaign of fake news and other tricks aims to turn the Baltic nations public against thealliance.
NATO Should Count Spending on Secure 5G Towards Its 2% Goals // Lindsay Gorman: Getting 5G right is key to the alliances veryfuture.
NATOs Newest Threat Is Coming From Inside the House / Kevin Baron: Worry less about the gaps between NATO leaders, and more about the gap between those leaders and the national securitycommunity.
Three Tweaks to Foster Innovative Defense Products / Jeff Decker: Even the Pentagon cant lavish billionaire-level cash on every promising tech startup but it can make several moves thathelp.
Welcome to this Wednesday edition of The D Brief from Ben Watson. If youre not already subscribed, you can do that here. On this day in 1941, the Chicago Tribune and the Washington Herald published secret U.S. plans to invade Europe and defeat Hitler in1943.
Pentagon officials say Iran may soon attack U.S. forces in the Middle East. Thats according to CNNs Barbara Starr, who tweeted around 6 p.m. on Tuesday: There is fresh intelligence in last month of a potential Iranian threat against US forces and interests in the Middle East according to several US defense and administration officials speaking to CNN.Where this comes from: Alleged evidence Iran has moved forces and weapons, though there was no indication at this time Iran regime has made any decision to attack U.S. forces.The Pentagons No. 3 official, John Rood, is saying that today, too, according to Reuters, which notes Rood did not provide details about what information he was basing that concern on or anytimeline.
Syrians say U.S. raid on Baghdadi also killed civilians. NPR: A Syrian farmer says his arm was blown off and his two friends were killed by U.S. helicopter fire in the village where American special forces were attacking the compound of ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in October. His account is supported by analysis of photos of shrapnel and of a damaged van.That belies a Pentagon statement that said special forces protected all of the non-combatants during the Oct. 26 raid.The U.S. military will review the incident, a defense official told NPR. Read on, here.
North Koreas leader hopped on a horse again, so the images are making their way across the interwebs quickly. AP puts them in context, here.
Iran, Russia and China finally announced joint naval exercises, according to Russias state-run TASS. The drills are expected to begin Dec. 22 and run through January 20. Writes the Washington Posts Liz Sly, who flagged the announcement on Twitter: Its been long promised; now theres a date. A potential challenge to the U.S. & a big boost forIran.
Anyone interested in a real spy story? Bellingcats Eliot Higgins this week flagged a new report from his fellow open-source sleuths all about how Russia recruited a hitman who murdered a Russian businessman in 2013, gave him a new identity, and then he was arrested in 2019 in Berlin for the murder of Zelimkhan Khangoshvili.Khangoshvili had previously fought alongside anti-Moscow separatists in Chechnya, Reuters reports today. Khangoshvili was shot twice in the head in a central Berlin park in August as he was heading to a mosque.Russias reax: This is absolutely groundless speculation, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said today.By the way: Germany just booted two Russian diplomats out of the country on allegations Russia is refusing to cooperate in the Khangoshvili investigation. More from Reuters, here.
ICYMI: A former Green Beret is running against a former SEAL in Virginia to unseat a former CIA agent in the House. AP has the story, here.
Former Marine officer, Rep. Duncan Hunter pleaded guilty Tuesday to one count of conspiracy in a case surrounding his alleged misuse of $250,000 in campaign donations for personal expenses such as family vacations and oral surgeries, ABC News reported after months of denials from the California Republican.Hunter said he pleaded guilty for his children. I think itd be really tough for them, he said. Its hard enough being the kids of a public figure, and I think its time for them to live life outside the spotlight. Story, here.
Do you want to end Americas endless wars? So does George Soros and Charles Koch. Politicos Brian Bender explains why a new think tank called the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft is opening today in Washington, here.
Lastly today in NCAA football,No. 25 Air Force is ranked for the first time since 2010. With Navy at No. 23, there are two service academies ranked at the same time for the first time since Oct. 14,1985.
- U.S. negotiating position on Iran in flux as talks continue - The Washington Post - April 25th, 2025 [April 25th, 2025]
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- Congratulations to Paraguay for Confronting Iran and its Proxies - U.S. Department of State (.gov) - April 25th, 2025 [April 25th, 2025]
- 'Waste That St': In Interview With Free Beacon, Fetterman Tells Trump To Dump Iran Talks and Destroy Tehran's Nuclear Facilities - freebeacon.com - April 25th, 2025 [April 25th, 2025]
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- Iran's FM Araghchi to head to Oman for nuclear talks with US - The New Arab - April 25th, 2025 [April 25th, 2025]
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- Iran-US talks over Tehrans nuclear program hinge on a billionaire and a seasoned diplomat - AP News - April 21st, 2025 [April 21st, 2025]
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- US and Iran say talks over Tehrans nuclear program make progress and set plans for more - AP News - April 21st, 2025 [April 21st, 2025]
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- In Iran Talks, Trump Is Edging Toward Reviving an Old Deal - The New York Times - April 21st, 2025 [April 21st, 2025]
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- Trump Is About to Learn That Iran Is a Problem Without a Solution - Foreign Policy - April 21st, 2025 [April 21st, 2025]
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- With his promises of peace unmet in Gaza and Ukraine, Trump may find Iran just as tough - Reuters - April 21st, 2025 [April 21st, 2025]
- Second round of US-Iran nuclear talks end, third round set for next week - France 24 - April 21st, 2025 [April 21st, 2025]
- U.S., Iran officials project progress in second round of nuclear talks - The Washington Post - April 21st, 2025 [April 21st, 2025]
- Iran offered US a nuclear agreement with same enrichment cap as 2015 deal report - The Times of Israel - April 21st, 2025 [April 21st, 2025]
- As Iran talks resume, White House fends off bombing hawks - The Washington Post - April 21st, 2025 [April 21st, 2025]
- Trump says he is in no rush to attack Iran over nuclear program - Reuters - April 21st, 2025 [April 21st, 2025]
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- Omans sultan to meet Putin in Moscow after Iran-US nuclear talks mediated by Muscat - The Times of Israel - April 21st, 2025 [April 21st, 2025]
- Israel said to still eye limited attack on Iran nuclear sites despite Trump waving off plan - The Times of Israel - April 21st, 2025 [April 21st, 2025]
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- Iran confirms that the 2nd round of nuclear talks with the US will be in Rome - AP News - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- Iran's Khamenei sends letter to Putin ahead of talks with US - Reuters - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- Saudi defence minister arrives in Tehran ahead of Iran-US talks - Reuters - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- Iran Says Despite Shifting U.S. Messages, It Plans to Keep Participating in Nuclear Talks - The New York Times - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- Opinion | Its a Mistake to Think the Biggest Problem With Iran Is Nuclear Weapons - The New York Times - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- Mike Pompeo: We Dont Need a Fake Deal with Iran - The Free Press - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- Ahead of 2nd round of nuclear negotiations, U.S. and Iran harden positions - PBS - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- US, Iran Set for Second Round of Nuclear Talks as Iranian FM Warns Against Unrealistic Demands - Algemeiner.com - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
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- Iran says its right to uranium enrichment is non-negotiable - Reuters - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- Iran confirms next round of nuclear talks with US set for Rome on Saturday - Al Jazeera - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- Oil posts weekly gain on trade deal hopes, new Iran sanctions - Reuters - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- Trump Warns Iran: A Nuclear Iran Will Never Bring Happiness to Its People - kurdistan24.net - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
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- Iran's folded rocks: The crumpled mountains at the intersection of Asia and Europe - Live Science - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- IAEA chief on Tehran visit: Iran, US dont have much time to reach nuclear deal - The Times of Israel - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- Trump Gives Conflicting Signals and Mixed Messages on Iran Nuclear Talks - The New York Times - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- Trump holds Situation Room meeting on Iran, officials say - Reuters - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- Trump warns Iran it can thrive and be a great country without death - Cleveland.com - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- Another US aircraft carrier in Mideast waters ahead of second round of Iran-US nuclear talks - AP News - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- Trump blocked Israeli-proposed joint attack on Iran to pursue nuclear deal report - The Times of Israel - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- If US and Iran Clash, This Remote Base Could Be First To Fight - Newsweek - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- Trump Trashed the Iran Nuclear Deal. Will His Be Any Better? - The New York Times - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- Iran wants to drag out talks, Trump wants a deal now. Neither is good for Israel - The Times of Israel - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- Rubio blames Iran for JCPOA collapse, overlooks U.S. withdrawal from the deal - Tehran Times - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- Iran seeks Russia's support for its nuclear talks with US - theheraldreview.com - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- Iran believes it can reach nuclear agreement with US, wants Russia to play role - The Times of Israel - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- Iran wants guarantees Trump will not quit a new nuclear pact, official says - The Times of Israel - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- US-Iran talks to be held in Rome following confusion over location - Euronews.com - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]