SitRep: US and Iran Trade Shots in Syria; Qatar Blockade Continues; ISIS Slaughtering Civilians in Mosul – Foreign Policy (blog)
With Adam Rawnsley
Shooting war. Is this what the start of a war looks like? Near At Tanf, two strikes destroyed two tactical vehicles and a UAS. The line comes from the tally of airstrikes the U.S. Central Command emails to reporters each morning, blandly listing each days strikes against Islamic State targets in Iraq and Syria. Only in Fridays note, the targets were Iranian-backed Shiite militias fighting in support of the regime of Syrias Bashar al Assad.
An American F-15 shot down a pro-regime drone that dropped a munition on U.S.-backed forces near the U.S. garrison at al Tanf on Thursday, narrowly missing the patrol which was accompanied by U.S. forces. The armed drone, which was likely an Iranian-made Shahed-129, was wiped out only hours after other U.S. jets bombed two vehicles which had strayed too close to the base. The Daily Beast has a good run down on the Iranian drone, and its operations in Syria.
New threat for U.S. troops in Syria. The attack, which U.S. military officials say caused no casualties or damage to equipment, was the first time U.S.-backed forces had been targeted by a drone in Syria, and indicates that the Bashar al Assad regime and his Iranian backers are willing to target American and coalition troops directly, FPs Paul McLeary writes. It also came just after American warplanes struck Shiite militias, backed by Iran, for the third time in as many weeks near the U.S. garrison at al Tanf.
A U.S. Defense official said Thursday the drone strike came outside of a 55-mile buffer zone the U.S. enforces around al Tanf, but that U.S.-backed forces, along with their American and international advisors, regularly patrol outside of the area. More here from FPs Dan De Luce and Paul McLeary on where this emerging conflict between Washington and Tehran in Syria might be headed.
More trouble for Qatar. Arab countries put 12 organizations and 59 people on a terror sanctions list early Friday they described as being associated with Qatar, the AP reports Friday morning, the latest in a growing diplomatic dispute thats seen the energy rich nation isolated by Saudi Arabia and others. As of Thursday, Pentagon officials were telling SitRep that operations at the massive Al Udeid air base in Qatar the operational hub of the war in Iraq and Syria were proceeding as normal, though there were some worries about keeping the 11,000 troops on the base supplied in the long term if the blockade by Gulf countries continues.
The Wall Street Journal notes, Qatar may be tiny, but thats where all the major fault lines in the Middle East are converging these days. The sudden cutoff of ties with Qatar by several Saudi-led Arab states has already turned into a proxy fight between supporters and opponents of political Islam and between partners and enemies of Iran.
Its awful lonely out there on the Qatar Peninsula, according to a new batch of satellite imagery posted by Bellingcat. The open source investigative outlet published photos showing that the Saudis have completely cut off vehicle traffic to Qatars As Salwa border crossing. Qatar is dependent on goods delivered across its land border with Saudi Arabia for much of its imports.
Kurds going for it. Iraqi Kurds have finally set a date for their long-discussed referendum on independence from the rest of Iraq, with the Kurdistan Regional Government calling for a vote on Sept. 25, FPs Keith Johnson and Emily Tamkin write.
The decision, announced by KRG president Masoud Barzani on Twitter, is sure to spark a showdown with Baghdad, which has for years sought to keep the restive Kurds inside a barely functioning Iraqi state. The U.S. State Department says it is concerned the referendum will distract Baghdad from the fight against the Islamic State. Turkey, unsurprisingly, thinks the move is a terrible mistake.
ISIS has killed hundreds in Mosul. Meanwhile, Islamic State fighters have shot and killed hundreds of civilians in Mosul over the past two weeks, as the Iraqi army tightens the circle around the last remaining holdouts the United Nations said on Thursday. It is estimated that as many as 200,000 civilians remain trapped by the fighters in their dwindling pocket of control in the western half of Mosul.
Welcome to SitRep. Send any tips, thoughts or national security events to paul.mcleary@foreignpolicy.com or via Twitter: @paulmcleary or @arawnsley.
Arms bazaar. Want to know whats in the reportedly $110 billion arms package the U.S. just offered to the Saudis? Defense News got it hands on a list of the specific items involved, which includes seven THAAD batteries, Patriot anti-missile systems, surveillance planes and fighter jets, as well as tens of thousands of munitions and other assorted arms. While the Trump administration has touted the $110 billion figure, theres still plenty of hurdles before that figure becomes a reality. The U.S. and Saudi Arabia still need to sign letters of agreement for a number of systems and both the Defense Security Cooperation Agency and Congress need to sign off on the sales. Congressional approval could be especially tricky given an emerging opposition to Saudi arms sales in the Senate.
Hack the Casbah. FPs Emily Tamkin reports that Qatars state-supported Al Jazeera news outlet is now under attack online. Al Jazeera officials say the entire Doha-based network is suffering from constant hacking attempts. The statement comes amidst a squabble between Qatar and its Sunni Gulf neighbors over Dohas alleged support of militant groups, the Muslim Brotherhood, and Iran. The rift has been widened by another incident of cyber intrigue involving what Qatar and the FBI say was the hack into the state-run Qatar News Agency. Officials say an op-ed purportedly written by Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani expressing fondness for Iran and Israel was a fake planted by hackers.
For hire. The New York Times also gets a scoop that the culprits responsible for posting that allegedly fake article were Russian mercenary hackers, according to the FBI. Nor are the Qataris the only Gulf country on the receiving end of hackers for hire. One group of cybersecurity researchers is set to publish a report claiming that the hackers responsible for stealing and publishing emails from the Emirati ambassador to the U.S. were part of a mercenary group dubbed Bahamut.
Busted. The Department of Justice announced the arrest of two alleged Hezbollah operatives inside the U.S., charging the men with training with the U.S.-designated terrorist group and scouting out potential American and Israeli targets inside the U.S. and Panama. Prosecutors say Samer El Debek and Ali Kourani, both naturalized U.S. citizens, received military training from Hezbollah in Lebanon, including a course in manufacturing improvised explosive devices for El Debek. Kourani is accused of scouting targets for Hezbollah in New York and searching for weapons suppliers for the group. El Debek allegedly surveilled the U.S. and Israeli embassies in Panama for Hezbollah and helped the group clean out a bomb factory in Thailand after operatives there fell under surveillance.
Shots fired. Russian President Vladimir Putin took aim at Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), his greatest nemesis in the U.S. Congress, on Thursday. In an interview with director and fan Oliver Stone, Putin admitted a grudging fondness for McCain to a certain extent on account of his patriotism. But Putin called out the Arizona senator for liv[ing] in the Old World, saying that his hardline stance on Russia fails to take into account the importance of cooperation between the U.S. and Russia on issues ranging from terrorism, global poverty, and nuclear weapons.
Photo Credit: U.S. Air Force
Twitter Facebook Google + Reddit
Here is the original post:
SitRep: US and Iran Trade Shots in Syria; Qatar Blockade Continues; ISIS Slaughtering Civilians in Mosul - Foreign Policy (blog)
- Iran's Araghchi: Iran continues to give diplomacy a chance to succeed - investingLive - October 28th, 2026 [October 28th, 2026]
- Iran sees only unacceptable ideas in latest mediation to end war, official says - Reuters - October 28th, 2026 [October 28th, 2026]
- Continuous round-the-world cruise comes to an end as Iran war spikes fuel costs - CNN - October 28th, 2026 [October 28th, 2026]
- UK Treasury offers $130 one-off payment to 20 million households and energy bills relief in face of Iran war shock - Fortune - October 28th, 2026 [October 28th, 2026]
- Is Iran moving toward war or peace after Mecca alliance meeting in Tehran? - DW.com - October 28th, 2026 [October 28th, 2026]
- Trump signals possible end to Iran war as US reportedly prepares for post election strikes - KOMO - October 28th, 2026 [October 28th, 2026]
- Eight months into the conflict, the U.S. war with Iran gets a revised price tag - MS NOW - October 28th, 2026 [October 28th, 2026]
- Vance reaches out to Iran security chief in bid to restart peace talks, WSJ reports - The Times of Israel - October 28th, 2026 [October 28th, 2026]
- Iran wars cost to American taxpayers grows to an estimated $47.1 billion - TribLIVE.com - October 28th, 2026 [October 28th, 2026]
- Iran to respond to Qatar offer allowing IAEA inspetion in Iranian nuclear sites - The Jerusalem Post - October 28th, 2026 [October 28th, 2026]
- Vance sent letter to Iran's security chief to revive peace talks - WSJ - Iran International - October 28th, 2026 [October 28th, 2026]
- Oil prices rise as U.S. reportedly tells Gulf countries to prepare for Iran strikes after midterm elections - CNBC - October 28th, 2026 [October 28th, 2026]
- Gulf states working on multipart peace deal to avert renewal of US-Iran war - The Guardian - October 28th, 2026 [October 28th, 2026]
- Trump is in a corner and likely to lash out at Iran again. Heres how to avert that disaster | Simon Tisdall - The Guardian - October 28th, 2026 [October 28th, 2026]
- US costs of Iran war rise to over $47 billion, according to Pentagon estimate - Reuters - October 28th, 2026 [October 28th, 2026]
- Espionage threats blur lines between security and dissent in Iran - Al Jazeera - October 28th, 2026 [October 28th, 2026]
- Food and household brands warn of more price hikes as Iran war costs bite - Reuters - October 28th, 2026 [October 28th, 2026]
- In his own words: Trump on gas prices and energy costs since launching the war with Iran - AP News - October 28th, 2026 [October 28th, 2026]
- Iran's new internet bill raises fears of tighter online restrictions - Iran International - October 28th, 2026 [October 28th, 2026]
- Caretaker role will limit Netanyahu though hell retain war powers, as possible Iran attack looms - The Times of Israel - October 28th, 2026 [October 28th, 2026]
- Iran war will end "whenever I want it to end," Trump says as cost tops $47 billion - CBS News - October 28th, 2026 [October 28th, 2026]
- Netanyahu defies exit polls to take lead in Israeli election what it means for Iran war - New York Post - October 28th, 2026 [October 28th, 2026]
- In unprecedented confrontation, IDF chief said resisting Netanyahus order for military action tied to Iran - The Times of Israel - October 28th, 2026 [October 28th, 2026]
- US costs of Iran war rise to over $47 billion, according to Pentagon estimate - Military Times - October 28th, 2026 [October 28th, 2026]
- Trump weighing next move in war with Iran - Fox News - October 28th, 2026 [October 28th, 2026]
- Iran rejects 'unacceptable' proposal by Qatar to end war with US - Middle East Eye - October 28th, 2026 [October 28th, 2026]
- More Oil Is Now Coming Out of the Persian Gulf Than Before the Iran War - WSJ - October 28th, 2026 [October 28th, 2026]
- The Iran war is creating oil spills visible from space - CNN - October 28th, 2026 [October 28th, 2026]
- Irans Inflation Hits 88.7% as Officials Warn of Job Losses, Winter Shortages and Social Unrest - National Council of Resistance of Iran - NCRI - October 28th, 2026 [October 28th, 2026]
- US warns Gulf states of possible renewed Iran offensive after midterms report - The Times of Israel - October 28th, 2026 [October 28th, 2026]
- Iran says 7 oil tankers were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz as fears grow of a return to war - New York Daily News - October 22nd, 2026 [October 22nd, 2026]
- Peter Thiel breaks with Trump over Iran war: We should not have done it - Yahoo - October 22nd, 2026 [October 22nd, 2026]
- Diplomats Race to Head Off Escalation With Iran - WSJ - October 22nd, 2026 [October 22nd, 2026]
- Iran war updates: Tehran calls for diplomacy but ready to defend itself - Al Jazeera - October 22nd, 2026 [October 22nd, 2026]
- Greece says it is implementing sanctions linked to Iran - Reuters - October 22nd, 2026 [October 22nd, 2026]
- Iran determined to keep uranium amid increased war odds, flurry of meetings - Al Jazeera - October 22nd, 2026 [October 22nd, 2026]
- Iran is trying to create a rot from within through information warfare, analyst warns - Fox News - October 22nd, 2026 [October 22nd, 2026]
- Iran: Oil tankers are on fire, damaged in key strait as fears grow over return to war - KCRA - October 22nd, 2026 [October 22nd, 2026]
- Iran: Oil tankers are on fire, damaged in key strait as fears grow over return to war - WLWT - October 22nd, 2026 [October 22nd, 2026]
- Iran: Oil tankers are on fire, damaged in key strait as fears grow over return to war - WBAL-TV - October 22nd, 2026 [October 22nd, 2026]
- Iran says 7 oil tankers are on fire or damaged in a key strait as fears grow of a return to war - Click2Houston - October 22nd, 2026 [October 22nd, 2026]
- Iran: Oil tankers are on fire, damaged in key strait as fears grow over return to war - KCCI - October 22nd, 2026 [October 22nd, 2026]
- Iran: Oil tankers are on fire, damaged in key strait as fears grow over return to war - WMUR - October 22nd, 2026 [October 22nd, 2026]
- Iran: Oil tankers are on fire, damaged in key strait as fears grow over return to war - WYFF - October 22nd, 2026 [October 22nd, 2026]
- Iran: Oil tankers are on fire, damaged in key strait as fears grow over return to war - KMBC - October 22nd, 2026 [October 22nd, 2026]
- Iran: Oil tankers are on fire, damaged in key strait as fears grow over return to war - WDSU - October 22nd, 2026 [October 22nd, 2026]
- Iran says 7 oil tankers were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz as fears grow of a return to war - Newsday - October 22nd, 2026 [October 22nd, 2026]
- Iran: Oil tankers are on fire, damaged in key strait as fears grow over return to war - KOCO - October 22nd, 2026 [October 22nd, 2026]
- Iran: Oil tankers are on fire, damaged in key strait as fears grow over return to war - KOAT - October 22nd, 2026 [October 22nd, 2026]
- Iran: Oil tankers are on fire, damaged in key strait as fears grow over return to war - WMTW - October 22nd, 2026 [October 22nd, 2026]
- Iran says seven oil tankers damaged in Strait of Hormuz as fears of all-out war return - The Globe and Mail - October 22nd, 2026 [October 22nd, 2026]
- Iran says 7 oil tankers attacked in the Strait of Hormuz as fears grow of a return to war - WHDH - October 22nd, 2026 [October 22nd, 2026]
- Iran: Oil tankers are on fire, damaged in key strait as fears grow over return to war - WTAE - October 22nd, 2026 [October 22nd, 2026]
- Iran says 7 tankers were damaged in the Strait of Hormuz, and other Mideast news - AP News - October 22nd, 2026 [October 22nd, 2026]
- Iran says 7 tankers on fire or damaged overnight in the Strait of Hormuz, and other Mideast news - WTOP News - October 22nd, 2026 [October 22nd, 2026]
- U.S. and Israel are planning for a possible attack on Iran, source tells NPR - NPR for Oregonians - October 22nd, 2026 [October 22nd, 2026]
- Iran says Strait of Hormuz reopening, seven-day ceasefire conditions still on the table - CBS News - October 22nd, 2026 [October 22nd, 2026]
- Iran says 7 oil tankers are on fire or damaged in a key strait as fears grow of a return to war - Bozeman Daily Chronicle - October 22nd, 2026 [October 22nd, 2026]
- Iran says 7 oil tankers attacked in the Strait of Hormuz as fears grow of a return to war - The Seattle Times - October 22nd, 2026 [October 22nd, 2026]
- Greece says it is implementing sanctions linked to Iran - Al-Monitor - October 22nd, 2026 [October 22nd, 2026]
- The Iran War Has Changed the World Forever - Foreign Policy - October 19th, 2026 [October 19th, 2026]
- Trump heads to Kansas to rally Republicans; Vance's stunning response about Iran attack - CBS News - October 19th, 2026 [October 19th, 2026]
- Theres a Failure in the Leadership: Widower Confronts JD Vance over Iran War Deaths - Democracy Now! - October 19th, 2026 [October 19th, 2026]
- Saudi Arabia postpones big investor conference to 2027 as Iran-backed Houthis escalate attacks on kingdom - CNBC - October 19th, 2026 [October 19th, 2026]
- Flanagan opposed the Iran war from the start. Tafoya's position has shifted. - Star Tribune - October 19th, 2026 [October 19th, 2026]
- The Iran War has sent gas and oil prices higher. That could spell economic disaster in the midterms. - Business Insider - October 19th, 2026 [October 19th, 2026]
- A renewed Iran war is only a matter of time, Israeli experts warn - Jewish Telegraphic Agency - October 19th, 2026 [October 19th, 2026]
- Exclusive: Breakthrough expected in US-Iran mediation efforts this week - The New Arab - October 19th, 2026 [October 19th, 2026]
- Iran chillingly warns it has unfinished jobs in latest threat to US - New York Post - October 19th, 2026 [October 19th, 2026]
- Iran support for Houthis probed as Yemen war re-erupts and Saudi cities hit - Al Jazeera - October 19th, 2026 [October 19th, 2026]
- Qatar warns global energy shockwaves from Iran war have yet to peak - Al Jazeera - October 19th, 2026 [October 19th, 2026]
- Trump says Netanyahu needs to be re-elected, or else US will have to 'finish the job against Iran alone - Fox News - October 19th, 2026 [October 19th, 2026]
- Teenager killed by gunshot to eye after arrest in Iran, source says - Iran International - October 19th, 2026 [October 19th, 2026]
- Iran pols finally admit they want nuclear weapons: 'Its a necessity more important than bread' - New York Post - October 19th, 2026 [October 19th, 2026]
- Trumps Iran war is crushing the Hawaiian dream - The Telegraph - October 19th, 2026 [October 19th, 2026]
- Dont let history repeat: The next Congress must end the Iran War - The Hill - October 19th, 2026 [October 19th, 2026]
- The lessons Israel must learn before the next war with Iran - www.israelhayom.com - October 19th, 2026 [October 19th, 2026]
- Opinion | Take Action October 20 to End the Illegal US-Israeli War on Iran - Common Dreams - October 19th, 2026 [October 19th, 2026]
- How Donald Trump Can Still Intensify the Pressure on Iran - The National Interest - October 19th, 2026 [October 19th, 2026]
- 91 percent in Texas poll say Iran war raising oil and gas prices - Yahoo - October 19th, 2026 [October 19th, 2026]