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Izvestia: Whats on the agenda of the Lavrov-Blinken talks in Geneva

Real negotiations on security guarantees will begin only after Moscow receives an official written response from the United States and NATO to its proposals, a source familiar with the course of contacts told Izvestia. The January 21 scheduled meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, implies "only discussion" of guarantees, the source said. Before talking to his Russian counterpart, the US top diplomat visited Ukraine and headed to Germany. The itinerary of his tour makes it clear that work on de-escalation is proceeding along the Washington-Berlin-Kiev-Moscow track, where the Russian-US dialogue plays a decisive role.

"The negotiations between Russia and the United States on January 21 are, in fact, just a discussion," an informed source familiar with the course of the consultations told Izvestia. "Real negotiations can begin only after Moscow receives a written answer. Thats when decisions will be made. So far, we have no such answer," the source said.

Meanwhile, this source emphasized that Moscow is not going to change its negotiating positions, since "they are all set out on paper". The Russian side wants everything to go quickly. This should not be "a process that will drag on for months and years". Therefore, Moscow is actively urging the West to give it an official answer, according to Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov, it expects to receive it "any day now".

These consultations could launch negotiations on European security, arms control and confidence-building measures, head of the International Order and Democracy program at the German Council on Foreign Relations Stefan Meister told Izvestia.

At the same time, despite all the geopolitical risks, it is still possible to reach a compromise. One option is for NATO to say that the alliance is not abandoning its "open door" policy, expert at the Center for Security Studies at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich Henrik Larsen told the newspaper.

Tehran gave Moscow a draft of a 20-year-long strategic cooperation agreement following yesterdays talks between Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi. The Russian head of state noted that Russia and Iran are closely cooperating in many areas, including the fight against terrorism. In addition, over recent years, trade between the two countries has increased. According to experts interviewed by Izvestia, pressure from the West, which both states are experiencing, could push Moscow and Tehran towards closer cooperation, even in the security sphere.

Putin highlighted the growing trade between the countries, pointing out that in 2021, it had exceeded $3.3 bln. Further development of bilateral relations can be facilitated by the conclusion of a comprehensive agreement on strategic partnership, Raisi believes. The Iranian president also encouraged the Russian leader to unite against the backdrop of sanctions pressure from Washington and its allies.

Given the extensive souring of relations between Russia and the United States, there is no doubt that Moscow will strengthen ties with Iran, orientalist Vyacheslav Matuzov told Izvestia. The commentator does not rule out that they can even transform into allies, since Russia and Iran are under pressure that goes beyond international law. "This is pushing Russia, Iran, and China, as well as other countries to work together more closely in order to protect themselves from lawlessness," the expert emphasized.

Political scientist Roland Bidzhamov agrees. According to him, in the current situation, Russia and Iran need to conclude an agreement on strategic partnership. "This will help foster cooperation in various fields, including the economy. At the same time, Moscow and Tehran need to switch to settlements in national currencies," the expert believes.

Ankara is ready to provide its negotiating platform for organizing a Russian-Ukrainian summit, according to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who invited his colleagues Vladimir Putin and Vladimir Zelensky to "settle all differences". This is not the first proposal by the authorities of a NATO member state to provide diplomatic mediation in resolving the Donbass conflict, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes. Nevertheless, experts doubt that the Turkish initiative interests the Kremlin.

Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov, commenting on the Turkish presidents initiative, noted that the place of organizing the proposed top-level contacts is a secondary issue. "The most important thing is to persuade Ukraine," he stressed.

Head of the Department of international relations and political science at Kahramanmaras Sutcu Imam University Togrul Ismayil told the newspaper, that the crisis between Russia and Ukraine is extremely detrimental for Ankara, like any conflicts in the Black Sea region. In this regard, Turkey is ready to do everything possible to prevent any confrontation. Prior to this present bid, Erdogan had offered mediation between Kiev and Moscow. Ankara is trying to avoid an escalation, the expert said, adding that Erdogan has good personal relations with both Putin and Zelensky.

Head of R. Politik analytical center, political scientist Tatyana Stanovaya, explained to Nezavisimaya Gazeta that for Moscow the question of negotiations with Kiev had lost its meaning back in 2020. "So, it doesnt matter what platform is used for it," the expert maintained. "Now everything revolves around negotiations on security guarantees between Russia and the United States, and the issue of the Donbass conflict has become just one of the episodes - albeit the most serious ones - of this much larger agenda," she added.

UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet announced that she was completing a report on the situation in Xinjiang. But the work was not published due to the fact that Beijing did not allow the organization to visit the autonomous region. The US and its allies claim that the Uyghurs are being persecuted and are even facing genocide, while Beijing denies this accusation. US Congressional members are urging Bachelet to publish the report before the opening of the Beijing Olympics on February 4. Experts told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that China might ignore the report altogether.

American lawmakers demanded that the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights release its assessment of China's policy in Xinjiang before the Olympics. This, they say, will serve as an important reminder that no country where a serious violation of human rights occurs can escape an international probe. The Office of the High Commissioner has so far kept silent about the date when the report will be distributed.

Deputy Director of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations Alexander Lomanov told Nezavisimaya Gazeta, "It is impossible to disrupt the Olympics as a sporting event. The coronavirus has become its main enemy. And the US takes second place. After all, the Omicron strain entered China before February 1, the beginning of the [Chinese] New Year, which is a very big holiday." "During that week, people may not go to work. In addition, this is a rare chance to visit relatives. Tens of millions of people will be moving from big cities to small ones, from small towns to the countryside," the expert said, adding that the authorities will have to ensure that the tradition does not lead to the spread of the virus.

Moldova once again runs the risk of being left without gas supplies from Russia. Following two days of negotiations, the parties failed to agree on deferring payment for January. Chisinau lacks about $25 mln, which, after the introduction of a state of emergency in the energy sector will have to be withdrawn from the budget. According to Kommersant, despite the critical situation, the Moldovan authorities are in no hurry to visit Russia to discuss payments for gas.

Since November, Moldovagaz and Gazprom have entered into a new five-year contract for 3.3 bln cubic meters of gas per year, thus preventing a complete halt of Russian gas supplies to the Eastern European country. Given the current increase in spot gas prices in Europe, Moldova secured relatively low prices. Nevertheless, gas prices for Moldovagaz are constantly growing - from $450 per 1,000 cubic meters in November to $550 in December and $647 in January.

Dmitry Marinchenko from Fitch noted that quite possibly that Moldova is paying for gas about as much as European buyers are, but significantly more than other CIS countries (like Belarus and Armenia). Katya Yafimava of OIES told the newspaper that Moldovagaz has a lack of cash because consumers pay it on delivery (rather than upfront), and even higher tariffs are not enough to cover the sharp increase in import prices. "I dont see geopolitics here, at least from the Russian side. Since a similar situation had occurred in November, the Moldovan government knows that Gazprom is serious and it will not be possible to accumulate new debt," she noted.

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Press review: Iran offers Russia long-term deal and whats on the Lavrov-Blinken agenda - TASS