Netanyahu has crossed point of no return on Iran
Story highlights Benjamin Netanyahu's open conflict with President Obama over Iran has served as blow to U.S.-Israeli relationship, says Trita Parsi Parsi: Conflict has also damaged Israel's otherwise arguably successful Iran policy by painting country into corner Over course of past 18 months, Netanyahu government has made Iran all about Israel, Parsi argues
Trita Parsi
Contrary to Israel's rhetoric, the fear of Iran getting a nuclear weapon has not been the driving factor of Israel policy on Iran since the early 1990s. Obviously, Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon would be highly undesirable for Israel. But that has not been Israel's primary concern. Rather, the fear has been that Washington would end up finding a compromise with Iran that on the one hand would close off any Iranian path to a bomb, but on the other hand would lock in a shift in the regional balance of power in Israel's disfavor.
Regardless of the details of a nuclear deal with Iran, a deal per se would reduce Washington's tensions with Tehran, while not necessarily tempering the Israeli-Iranian rivalry proportionally. Israel will be "abandoned" to face Iran alone, Israelis fear. Moreover, a deal would signal, the argument goes, that Washington has accepted and will not contest Iran's geopolitical advances in the region. Iran has hegemonic aspirations, Israel contends, and must be stopped, not accommodated. After a deal with Iran, Washington would be even more likely to shift its geopolitical focus elsewhere and be less intertwined with Israel's needs.
The U.S.-Iran enmity has ensured Washington's commitment to isolating and containing Iran, much to Israel's satisfaction. If your interest dictates that the U.S. and Iran must remain firmly at odds with each other, a nuclear deal -- any deal -- would eliminate the most explosive point of contention between Washington and Tehran and lessen America's inclination to confront Iran on other matters, Israel believes. As Israel's Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon said earlier this week: "[E]very deal that will be signed between the West and this messianic and apocalyptic regime will strike a severe blow to Western and Israeli interests." This also explains why Netanyahu has been contradicting his own intelligence services and exaggerated and misconstrued Iran's nuclear activities.
Israel's policy towards Iran and the nuclear issue in the past two decades has rested on a few principles.
First, consecutive Israeli governments have been on the forefront of sounding the alarm about Iran, while carefully avoiding making Iran an "Israeli issue." At times, Israel has tried to tone down its rhetoric, both to avoid making the nuclear file an Israeli issue, but also to avoid making Israel shine too bright on the Iranian threat radar.
When Netanyahu was first elected prime minister, he requested an intelligence assessment of Israel's security environment. The debate was largely on whether Iran or Iraq constituted Israel's greatest external threat. Netanyahu decided to go with the assessment of the Mossad, presented by Uzi Arad, who argued that Israel could either make itself Iran's prime enemy by continuing belligerent rhetoric against Tehran, or it could tone things down and let Iran focus on other threats.
"Until the Netanyahu government, there was a proliferation of Israeli statements trying to deter Iran, warning Iran, the long arm of the Israeli air force etc. That was stopped, to his credit, by Netanyahu," Israeli journalist Ehud Yaari told me in an interview for my book Treacherous Alliance - the Secret Dealings of Israel, Iran and the US.
Ultimately, Israel was successful at turning the world's focus towards Iran's nuclear activities. The international community, led by Washington, began regarding Iran's nuclear issue as a primary threat to international security, imposed U.N. Security Council sanctions on Iran and the U.S. even openly debated bombing the country.
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Netanyahu has crossed point of no return on Iran
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