Matthew Kroenig – Tablet Magazine
Earlier this month, North Korea tested an intercontinental ballistic missile capable (ICBM), capable of reaching Alaska. It is believed that Pyongyang now has enough nuclear material for up to 30 nuclear weapons, missiles that can easily range U.S. bases and allies in Asia, and, in a couple of years, it will possess an ICBM capable of holding at risk the continental United States. This would make North Korea only the third U.S. adversary (after Russia and China) with the ability to threaten nuclear war against the United States and its allies.
If we are not careful, Iran may be next.
The North Korean nuclear crisis began in the 1990s. At the end of the Cold War, Pyongyang signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), but international inspectors immediately found discrepancies in North Koreas declarations. Washington suspected Pyongyang of harboring a secret program to reprocess plutonium for the production of nuclear weapons. (Along with uranium enrichment, plutonium reprocessing is one of two methods to produce nuclear fuel for either nuclear reactors, or for nuclear weapons.)
President Bill Clintons administration prepared a military strike on North Koreas nuclear reactor, but the operation was called off due to hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough. Republicans in Congress derided the Clinton administrations naivety for its engagement with a nuclear-seeking totalitarian regime, but a deal was eventually struck. Under the 1994 Agreed Framework North Korea agreed to freeze its plutonium production program in exchange for economic aid and other benefits. Some of the deals proponents argued that the details of the agreement did not really matter, however, because it was only a matter of time before the Kim regime in North Korea fell, solving the problem for us.
We now know that North Korea cheated on the agreement almost from day one, launching a secret uranium-enrichment program with the help of sensitive nuclear assistance from Pakistan.
The Bush administration confronted North Korea with its suspicions in 2002, setting off a decade of bipartisan policy failures. Bush and Obama increased sanctions and engaged in futile negotiations, but it was not enough.
In October 2006, North Korea conducted its first of six nuclear tests. Since that time, it has conducted over 70 missile tests, including 17 this year. Some take comfort that some of these tests are failures, but practice makes perfect. With every test, successful or not, North Korea further ensconces itself in the nuclear club.
There were flickerings of renewed diplomacy and even a couple of agreements. In 2007, the six parties agreed to an action plan for North Korean denuclearization. And in February 2012, there was a Leap Day deal. But both unraveled in a spectacular fashion. The Leap Day deal, for example, prohibited missile tests, but just weeks after the agreement was signed, North Korea conducted a satellite launch, scuttling the accord. (Recall Sputnik: The technology required to launch a satellite into space is exactly the same needed to launch an ICBM.)
Of course, hopes of regime change did not materialize, and Kim Jong Un is the third generation in the Kim family to rule the Hermit Kingdom with an iron fist.
President Donald Trump assumed office amid a bipartisan consensus that North Korea should now be a foremost national-security priority and the administration has conducted a comprehensive review that will leave no options off the table.
It is likely that Trumps strategy will contain two key pillars. First, Washington will seek to increase diplomatic, economic, and military pressure on North Korea with the goal of forcing Pyongyang to the negotiating table and persuading them to limit and then roll back their nuclear and missile program. Recent moves in this direction include secondary sanctions on Chinese firms and banks doing business with the North. Second, realizing that this could be a difficult and lengthy task but that serious threats exist in the here and now, the United States will take steps to defend itself and its allies. This will include the deployment of missile defenses, such as the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system in South Korea. It will also include the development of intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities to track North Koreas nuclear assets and offensive strike capabilities to make sure that if North Korea uses a nuclear weapon, it will not be permitted to use a second or a third.
This is not a great set of options, but it is better than the alternatives. I remain hopeful, but others insist that the game is over. They claim we need to learn to live with a nuclear-armed North Korea, despite the fact that several consecutive U.S. presidents have declared that a nuclear North Korea is unacceptable.
***
The Iranian nuclear crisis began in the 1990s when Tehran cheated on its NPT commitments and began a secret uranium-enrichment program with the help of Pakistan. The program was revealed in 2002, leading to over a decade of increased sanctions, unproductive negotiations, and an ever-expanding Iranian uranium-enrichment and missile program. Israel threatened military action to destroy Irans nuclear facilities and President Barack Obama declared all options on the table, but, once again the prospect of a diplomatic resolution proved irresistible. In 2015, a deal was struck and the Obama administration hailed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) as one of its crowning achievements.
Unlike the Agreed Framework, however, which prohibited North Korea from making nuclear fuel altogether, the JCPOA gives Irans uranium enrichment program an international stamp of approval. The deal places limits on Iranian enrichment, but those restrictions begin to expire after 10 years (or roughly eight years from last week).
Some of the deals proponents argue that we should not worry about these sunset clauses because Iran will be a fundamentally different country when the deal expires. Years of cooperation with the West and integration in the international economy under the terms of the deal, they argue, will help topple the mullahs and usher to power a more reasonable, and possibly even a pro-Western and democratic, government. Hope springs eternal, but we have been wish-casting for democratic uprisings in Iran and North Korea for many years, and neither appears close to becoming Switzerland any time soon.
Few experts expect this deal to resolve the Iranian nuclear threat. In a recent workshop in Washington, D.C., several other specialists and I (including those who had favored and opposed the deal) forecasted the future of the accord. We all assessed that Irans ultimate goal is to have its cake and eat it too: sanctions relief and a robust nuclear and missile program. All but one of us believed that Iran would cheat on the deal before it expires. The only one who believed the deal would endure reasoned that the mullahs had every incentive to abide by the accord because it was such a sweetheart deal. They can revitalize their economy with a decade of sanctions relief and then recommence their march to the bomb once the limits expire. In short, none of us were optimistic.
Moreover, the deal does not cover Irans ballistic-missile program. Iran has the most sophisticated ballistic-missile program in the Middle East. The Obama administration made a strategic decision to exclude ballistic missiles from negotiations because they thought including them would have been too hard. Iran has conducted several ballistic-missile tests since the nuclear deal went into effect. It now possesses medium-range ballistic missiles capable of ranging the Middle East (including Israel) and Southeastern Europe. And earlier this year, the U.S. Missile Defense Agency estimated that Iran could have the ability to deploy an operational ICBM by 2020.
We are in a tough spot, but, unlike in North Korea, we do have the ability to stop Iran from going nuclear. As an adviser to then-presidential candidate Marco Rubio, I recommended tearing up the Iran deal on day one. That moment has passed. At present, I believe the best we can do is to do to Iran what Iran is doing to us: Abide by the strict terms of the deal, but compete in every other area not covered by the deal. The Trump administration should ratchet up economic pressure on the still-economically-vulnerable clerical regime: new ballistic-missile tests, new sanctions; new human-rights abuses, new sanctions. We should also seek to push back on Irans malign influence in Syria, Yemen, Iraq, and Lebanon.
What is the ultimate purpose of this increased pressure? The Trump administration is still completing its Iran-policy review. Some argue that we should use the increased pressure to force Iran back to the table and seek to increase the limits on the sunset clause to 25 or 50 years.
This might be worthwhile. Or, like the previous deals with North Korea and Iran, renegotiations might prove counterproductive. I am a political scientist by training. Political science is not physics. We dont have many valid covering laws. But one thing we are pretty sure we know is that autocracies are less likely than democracies to sign international agreements, and when they do, they are more likely to cheat. But we never seem to learn our lesson. North Korea cheated on the agreed framework and several follow-up accords, Russia is currently violating the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, and I would not bet my life that the JCPOA will die a natural death.
Yet, still some will argue for continued diplomacy with the Islamic Republic. Indeed, many critics initially scoffed at Trumps calls for renegotiating of the Iran deal, but today even E.U. officials and Democrats in Washington are calling for additional negotiations, which is a distinction without a difference.
Other experts in Washington have made a renewed press for an explicit policy of regime change in Iran, not through military force, but through increased pressure on the mullahs and increased support to opposition groups.
Regardless of the path we choose, we must be absolutely clear that we are willing to do whatever it takes to stop Iran from acquiring enough nuclear material for even a single nuclear weapon. If and when Tehran cheats on the accord or the limits expire, we will snap back sanctions per the terms of the JCPOA (although this admittedly is a thin reed). And, if necessary, we are willing to use force if necessary to stop Iran from building nuclear weapons.
The JCPOA put us in a bad spot and we are left with few good options. But, fortunately, we still have alternatives to living with another North Korea, but this time in the volatile Middle East.
***
You can help support Tablets unique brand of Jewish journalism.Click here to donate today.
Matthew Kroenig is an Associate Professor and International Relations Field Chair in the Department of Government at Georgetown and a Senior Fellow at the Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security at The Atlantic Council. He formerly worked as a special adviser on defense policy and strategy for Iran in the Office of the Secretary of Defense. He is the author of A Time to Attack: The Looming Iranian Nuclear Threat.
Read the original here:
Matthew Kroenig - Tablet Magazine
- Trump considers forcing journalists to reveal sources who leaked Iran report - The Guardian - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- Iran crackdown deepens with speedy executions and arrests - ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- Will Iran double down on its nuclear programme after the war? - Al Jazeera - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- How Fox News helped champion Trumps attacks on Iran: I agree with the president - The Guardian - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- Iran could start enriching uranium for bomb within months, UN nuclear chief says - BBC - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- Trump continues to project optimism that strikes on Iran obliterated its nuclear program - Politico - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- How to Assess the Damage of the Iran Strikes - The Atlantic - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- Dont count on the Iran-Israel ceasefire lasting. What Netanyahu really wants is a forever war | Simon Tisdall - The Guardian - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- Trump threatens to force journalists to reveal who leaked report undermining his narrative on Iran bombing - The Independent - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- A week of shifting descriptions of Iran attack spark ongoing questions about extent of damage and goals - ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and... - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- Senate rejects Democratic bid to restrain Trump on Iran as GOP backs his strikes on nuclear sites - PBS - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- Iran holds funeral for commanders and scientists killed in war with Israel - Reuters - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- Iran says it poses no threat to IAEA chief after newspaper called for his execution - The Times of Israel - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- Israel and U.S. Smashed Iran Nuclear Site That Grew After Trump Quit 2015 Accord - The New York Times - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- 'Too early to tell' if Iran has given up its nuclear ambitions: Sen. Lindsey Graham - ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- Why manufacturing consent for war with Iran failed this time - Al Jazeera - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- UN watchdog and intercepted Iran call undermine Trumps boasts about ending nuke program - The Independent - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- Iran could resume uranium enrichment in matter of months, IAEA chief says - The Times of Israel - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- Visualising 12 days of the Israel-Iran conflict - Al Jazeera - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- Trump Should Have Never Ditched the Iran Nuclear Deal - Time Magazine - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- Israel Vows To Maintain Air Superiority Over Iran - The War Zone - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- Trumps Iran strikes threaten to roil elections in Michigan - The Hill - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- US Senate votes down resolution to restrict Trump from escalating Iran war - The Guardian - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- Trump dismisses reports US is weighing up to $30 billion civilian nuclear deal for Iran - Reuters - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- With stunning campaign in Iran over for now, Israel turns back to Gaza slog - The Times of Israel - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- Trump says Iran must open itself to inspection to verify it doesnt restart its nuclear program - AP News - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- Senate Blocks War Powers Resolution to Limit Trumps Ability to Strike Iran Again - The New York Times - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- Iran Carries Out String of Executions and Arrests Amid Fears of Infiltration of Israeli Spies - Time Magazine - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- Mass state funeral in Iran honours top brass, nuclear scientists killed in war with Israel - France 24 - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- Iran says open to transferring highly enriched uranium abroad - Al Monitor - - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- Senate rejects resolution to curb Trump's use of military in Iran - USA Today - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- Did the Attacks on Iran Succeed? - Foreign Affairs - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- Rubio says he wants one-on-one talks with Iran but some in Congress remain skeptical - CNN - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- Gulf states fear an unrestrained Israel will hurt fragile ties with Iran - The Washington Post - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- Battling to survive, Hamas faces defiant clans and doubts over Iran - Reuters - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- US attacks on Iran redraw calculus of use of force for allies and rivals around globe - The Guardian - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- Iran arrests 700 'Israeli agents', but where are the weapons? - France 24 - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- Iran's Ayatollah Khamenei claims victory over Israel, "a big slap in the face" to the U.S. - CBS News - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- Iran mourns victims of conflict with Israel - CNN - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- The Iran threat will haunt the Gulf for years - Financial Times - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- The Most Significant Long-Term Consequence of the U.S. Strikes on Iran - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- Married couple, both IAF combat navigators, flew sorties over Iran during 12-day war - The Times of Israel - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- What the Israel-Iran War and Ceasefire Mean for Chinas Relations With the U.S. and World - Time Magazine - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- Trump says early report on damage to Iran's nuclear program was inconclusive - NPR - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- What to Know About the U.S. Strike on Iran and the Israel-Iran Cease-Fire - The New York Times - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- CNN, New York Times Reject Trumps Demands to Retract False and Unpatriotic Stories About Iran Bombing Raids: No Apology Will Be Forthcoming - Variety - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- Trump vs US intelligence: Iran is only the latest chapter - Al Jazeera - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- Iran moves to suspend cooperation with UN nuclear watchdog - Al Jazeera - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- Trumps $30B pitch to get Iran back in negotiations after demolition of nuclear sites: report - The Independent - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- Life in Iran After the Strikes: Executions, Arrests and Paranoia - WSJ - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- After U.S. and Israeli Strikes, Could Iran Make a Nuclear Bomb? - The New York Times - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- The stars aligned: Why Israel set out for a war against Iran, and what it achieved - The Times of Israel - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- Live updates: Israel and Iran enter shaky ceasefire as Trump accuses both of violations - The Washington Post - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- Israel-Iran live updates: Trump says both Israel, Iran have violated ceasefire - ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- Israel-Iran live updates: Trump says both Israel, Iran have violated ceasefire - ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- Trump lashes out at Israel and Iran as he accuses both of violating ceasefire - live updates - BBC - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- Trump lashes out at Israel and Iran as he accuses both of violating ceasefire - live updates - BBC - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- Trump is 'not happy' with Israel after saying it and Iran both broke a ceasefire - NPR - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- Trump is 'not happy' with Israel after saying it and Iran both broke a ceasefire - NPR - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- Live updates: Israel and Iran enter shaky ceasefire as Trump accuses both of violations - The Washington Post - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- Trump says Israel-Iran ceasefire is in effect after deal initially faltered - AP News - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- Live Updates: Trump Lashes Out at Israel and Iran as Fragile Truce Is Tested - The New York Times - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- Live Updates: Trump Lashes Out at Israel and Iran as Fragile Truce Is Tested - The New York Times - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- Can Iran, Israel and the U.S. Now All Claim to Have Won? - The New York Times - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- Israel and Iran ceasefire under strain and what to watch in New York City primary: Morning Rundown - NBC News - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- Israel and Iran agree to ceasefire to bring end to '12 DAY WAR,' Trump says - ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- A Fragile Cease-Fire Between Iran and Israel, and Toxic Homes in L.A. - The New York Times - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- Trump expresses frustration with Israel and Iran as ceasefire deal teeters and strikes continue - AP News - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- Why Trump thanked Iran after it fired missiles at a U.S. base in Qatar - MSNBC News - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- Have Israel and Iran agreed to a ceasefire? What we know - Al Jazeera - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- Trump holds out Israel-Iran ceasefire deal as validation for his gamble of US airstrikes - AP News - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- What to Know About the Cease-Fire Between Israel and Iran - The New York Times - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- Israel-Iran war live: Trump insists that he doesn't want 'regime change' in Iran - France 24 - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- Trump Brokers Ceasefire to End 12 Day War Between Israel and Iran - Time Magazine - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- What we know about Iran's attack on US base in Qatar - BBC - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- The Son of the Last Shah Wants to Be the Next Leader of Iran - Politico - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- Trump on Israel, Iran continuing fight: They dont know what the f theyre doing - The Hill - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- Netanyahu says Israel has agreed to Trump's proposal for ceasefire with Iran - Reuters - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- What life is like in Iran as Israel warns of more strikes - CNN - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- CNNs Erin Burnett reports from near the Strait of Hormuz about Israel-Iran ceasefire - CNN - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]