Looks like Rex Tillerson tricked Trump into keeping the Iran deal forever – Washington Examiner
During a week in which all signs point to Republicans enshrining President Obama's top domestic achievement into law, it's now looking like Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has tricked President Trump into keeping the main pillar of Obama's foreign policy legacy in place indefinitely: the disastrous Iran deal.
On Thursday, the Associated Press reported that as part of Trump's move to certify Iran's compliance with the deal, the administration is pushing to "test" the deal with more inspections. On the surface, this may seem like a move to step up enforcement and lay the groundwork to unwind the deal theoretically consistent with Trump's vow to "get tough" on Iran. But in practice, it looks like a stalling tactic designed by Tillerson and Obama holdovers in the State Department to handcuff Trump, with endless bureaucratic delays, from ever being able to pull out of the deal.
Last week, Iran deal supporters in the administration, led by Tillerson, talked Trump into sticking with the deal and certifying Iran compliance for the second time of his presidency, even as he told the Wall Street Journal, "If it was up to me, I would have had them noncompliant 180 days ago."
Under the agreement that secured his decision recertify the deal, the United States will push for more inspections of Iranian military sites. As the AP puts it, "If Iran refuses inspections, the argument goes, Trump finally will have a solid basis to say Iran is breaching the deal, setting up Tehran to take most of the blame if the agreement collapses. If Iran agrees to inspections, those in Trump's administration who want to preserve the deal will be emboldened to argue it's advancing U.S. national security effectively."
The problem is twofold one logistical, and one more fundamental.
Logistically, the process of requesting inspections of Iranian sites is long and arduous, with plenty of opportunities for international institutions and foreign governments to gum up the works, delaying any firm resolution indefinitely, and thus putting pressure on Trump to constantly renew the deal to let the process play out. The prospect of this has not been lost on opponents of the Iran deal, who have been furiously emailing and texting with each other in despair as they contemplate the implications.
In an email to reporters, Omri Ceren, managing director of the Israel Project and one of the most dogged and informed opponents of the deal, observed that, "The push [for inspections] can drag on literally indefinitely: It requires the State Department to persuade the Europeans to persuade the [International Atomic Energy Agency] to persuade the Iranians to allow inspections, and in between there need to be bilateral and multilateral intelligence exchanges, and anyway the [Iran deal] allows Iran to engage in dialogue with the IAEA indefinitely without ever violating the deal."
There are a number of scenarios in which this convoluted process can be exploited by Tillerson and his band of Iran deal proponents at the State Department to maneuver Trump into holding off on his desire to escape the Iran deal.
"One scenario: In 3 months, Iran deal advocates will tell the president he has to certify because the deal is still being tested,'" Ceren wrote. "Another scenario: In 3 months, the Europeans (or Iran deal advocates channeling them) will tell the president he has to certify because they've bought into the testing,' and would backlash against decertification while it's ongoing. These are a half-dozen of these scenarios getting bounced around this morning."
As I noted, these are the logistical problems with substituting the "more inspections" approach in the place of a more focused strategy specifically unwinding the deal. But there's also a more fundamental problem: Regardless of whether it's enforced, the Iran deal is still a really crappy deal.
That is, even if Iran completely complies with the deal, it will still be given space to become a much more dangerous conventional threat while putting it on a glide path to nuclear weapons over time.
One of the main conservative cases for an unconventional outsider like Trump was that at least he was willing to burn things down that needed to be burnt down. But he's been consistently outplayed by swamp creatures. He vowed to reverse eight years of damaging Obama policies, yet more than six months into the Trump presidency, Obama's legacy at home and abroad looks increasingly secure.
View post:
Looks like Rex Tillerson tricked Trump into keeping the Iran deal forever - Washington Examiner
- U.S. negotiating position on Iran in flux as talks continue - The Washington Post - April 25th, 2025 [April 25th, 2025]
- Trump wants Iran deal but will be "leading the pack" for war without one - Axios - April 25th, 2025 [April 25th, 2025]
- Negotiations between Iran and the US over Tehran's nuclear program return to secluded Oman - AP News - April 25th, 2025 [April 25th, 2025]
- Congratulations to Paraguay for Confronting Iran and its Proxies - U.S. Department of State (.gov) - April 25th, 2025 [April 25th, 2025]
- 'Waste That St': In Interview With Free Beacon, Fetterman Tells Trump To Dump Iran Talks and Destroy Tehran's Nuclear Facilities - freebeacon.com - April 25th, 2025 [April 25th, 2025]
- Iran rejects demand from US to rely on imported uranium - The Guardian - April 25th, 2025 [April 25th, 2025]
- Israel said to fear US moving fast toward bad deal that wont block Iran from nukes - The Times of Israel - April 25th, 2025 [April 25th, 2025]
- Iran fortifying buried nuclear sites as talks with US continue, report says - Reuters - April 25th, 2025 [April 25th, 2025]
- Iran, France signal readiness for nuclear talks amid US negotiations - Reuters - April 25th, 2025 [April 25th, 2025]
- Rubio says Iran must give up nuclear enrichment in any deal with the US - AP News - April 25th, 2025 [April 25th, 2025]
- The US, Iran and the bomb - Al Jazeera - April 25th, 2025 [April 25th, 2025]
- What do 'expert level' talks signal for the progress of Iran-U.S. nuclear negotiations? - NBC News - April 25th, 2025 [April 25th, 2025]
- Act of negotiating with Iran is 'problematic,' rocket scientist says - Fox Business - April 25th, 2025 [April 25th, 2025]
- What do expert level talks signal for the progress of the Iran-US nuclear negotiations? - AP News - April 25th, 2025 [April 25th, 2025]
- U.S. Offers Iran Civilian Nuclear Program in Possible Compromise With Tehran - WSJ - April 25th, 2025 [April 25th, 2025]
- As Iran fortifies nuke sites, US says it can have civilian nuclear program if no enrichment - The Times of Israel - April 25th, 2025 [April 25th, 2025]
- Iran weighs pace of nuclear talks with US, unsure if to push for deal with Trump - analysis - The Jerusalem Post - April 25th, 2025 [April 25th, 2025]
- Iran's FM Araghchi to head to Oman for nuclear talks with US - The New Arab - April 25th, 2025 [April 25th, 2025]
- UN watchdog asks Iran to clarify tunnels but upbeat on deal - France 24 - April 25th, 2025 [April 25th, 2025]
- Trump: Willing to meet Leader Khamenei as Iran talks advance - Shafaq News - - April 25th, 2025 [April 25th, 2025]
- Rubio says war with Iran would be much messier than what people are used to seeing - The Hill - April 25th, 2025 [April 25th, 2025]
- After blows to proxies, Iran advances huge space program with Russian assistance - The Times of Israel - April 21st, 2025 [April 21st, 2025]
- Everything you need to know about Iran-US nuclear negotiations - Al Jazeera - April 21st, 2025 [April 21st, 2025]
- Source close to White House: US-Iran talks expected to collapse - www.israelhayom.com - April 21st, 2025 [April 21st, 2025]
- Iran-US talks over Tehrans nuclear program hinge on a billionaire and a seasoned diplomat - AP News - April 21st, 2025 [April 21st, 2025]
- Iran, US task experts with framework for a nuclear deal after 'progress' in talks - Reuters - April 21st, 2025 [April 21st, 2025]
- US and Iran say talks over Tehrans nuclear program make progress and set plans for more - AP News - April 21st, 2025 [April 21st, 2025]
- Trump cant afford to simply revive Obamas Iran nuclear deal - Atlantic Council - April 21st, 2025 [April 21st, 2025]
- What to know about the tensions between Iran and the US before their second round of talks - AP News - April 21st, 2025 [April 21st, 2025]
- In Iran Talks, Trump Is Edging Toward Reviving an Old Deal - The New York Times - April 21st, 2025 [April 21st, 2025]
- Iran, US report progress in nuclear talks, confirm third round next week - Al Jazeera - April 21st, 2025 [April 21st, 2025]
- Iran Says Talks With U.S. to Continue After Positive Meeting - WSJ - WSJ - April 21st, 2025 [April 21st, 2025]
- Iran says nuclear deal is possible if Washington is realistic - Reuters - April 21st, 2025 [April 21st, 2025]
- After Rome talks, Tehran says Iran and US to start designing framework for nuclear deal - The Times of Israel - April 21st, 2025 [April 21st, 2025]
- Trump Is About to Learn That Iran Is a Problem Without a Solution - Foreign Policy - April 21st, 2025 [April 21st, 2025]
- Hopes for Iran nuclear talks tempered by threats and mixed messages - BBC - April 21st, 2025 [April 21st, 2025]
- With his promises of peace unmet in Gaza and Ukraine, Trump may find Iran just as tough - Reuters - April 21st, 2025 [April 21st, 2025]
- Second round of US-Iran nuclear talks end, third round set for next week - France 24 - April 21st, 2025 [April 21st, 2025]
- U.S., Iran officials project progress in second round of nuclear talks - The Washington Post - April 21st, 2025 [April 21st, 2025]
- Iran offered US a nuclear agreement with same enrichment cap as 2015 deal report - The Times of Israel - April 21st, 2025 [April 21st, 2025]
- As Iran talks resume, White House fends off bombing hawks - The Washington Post - April 21st, 2025 [April 21st, 2025]
- Trump says he is in no rush to attack Iran over nuclear program - Reuters - April 21st, 2025 [April 21st, 2025]
- US-Iran: future stability of Middle East hangs on success of nuclear deal but initial signs are not good - The Conversation - April 21st, 2025 [April 21st, 2025]
- Omans sultan to meet Putin in Moscow after Iran-US nuclear talks mediated by Muscat - The Times of Israel - April 21st, 2025 [April 21st, 2025]
- Israel said to still eye limited attack on Iran nuclear sites despite Trump waving off plan - The Times of Israel - April 21st, 2025 [April 21st, 2025]
- Netanyahu: We will not surrender to Hamas, Iran won't have a nuclear weapon - The Jerusalem Post - April 21st, 2025 [April 21st, 2025]
- US and Iran agree to another round of talks to end nuclear stand-off - Financial Times - April 21st, 2025 [April 21st, 2025]
- Mossad chief, Dermer meet US envoy Witkoff in Paris ahead of US-Iran nuclear talks - The Times of Israel - April 21st, 2025 [April 21st, 2025]
- Iran and US move to expert-level talks after 'good meeting' in Rome - Middle East Eye - April 21st, 2025 [April 21st, 2025]
- April 19: US official: Very good progress made in Iran talks; well meet again next week - The Times of Israel - April 21st, 2025 [April 21st, 2025]
- Iran confirms that the 2nd round of nuclear talks with the US will be in Rome - AP News - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- Iran's Khamenei sends letter to Putin ahead of talks with US - Reuters - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- Saudi defence minister arrives in Tehran ahead of Iran-US talks - Reuters - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- Iran Says Despite Shifting U.S. Messages, It Plans to Keep Participating in Nuclear Talks - The New York Times - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- Opinion | Its a Mistake to Think the Biggest Problem With Iran Is Nuclear Weapons - The New York Times - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- Mike Pompeo: We Dont Need a Fake Deal with Iran - The Free Press - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- Ahead of 2nd round of nuclear negotiations, U.S. and Iran harden positions - PBS - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- US, Iran Set for Second Round of Nuclear Talks as Iranian FM Warns Against Unrealistic Demands - Algemeiner.com - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- Trump team's Iran divide: Dialogue vs. detonation to end nuclear threat - Axios - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- Iran says its right to uranium enrichment is non-negotiable - Reuters - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- Iran confirms next round of nuclear talks with US set for Rome on Saturday - Al Jazeera - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- Oil posts weekly gain on trade deal hopes, new Iran sanctions - Reuters - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- Trump Warns Iran: A Nuclear Iran Will Never Bring Happiness to Its People - kurdistan24.net - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- Scoop: Trump holds situation room meeting on Iran nuclear deal negotiations - Axios - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- Why Iran Doesnt Need the Bomb - The National Interest - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- Iran's folded rocks: The crumpled mountains at the intersection of Asia and Europe - Live Science - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- IAEA chief on Tehran visit: Iran, US dont have much time to reach nuclear deal - The Times of Israel - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- Trump Gives Conflicting Signals and Mixed Messages on Iran Nuclear Talks - The New York Times - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- Trump holds Situation Room meeting on Iran, officials say - Reuters - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- Trump warns Iran it can thrive and be a great country without death - Cleveland.com - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- Another US aircraft carrier in Mideast waters ahead of second round of Iran-US nuclear talks - AP News - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- Trump blocked Israeli-proposed joint attack on Iran to pursue nuclear deal report - The Times of Israel - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- If US and Iran Clash, This Remote Base Could Be First To Fight - Newsweek - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- Trump Trashed the Iran Nuclear Deal. Will His Be Any Better? - The New York Times - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- Iran wants to drag out talks, Trump wants a deal now. Neither is good for Israel - The Times of Israel - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- Rubio blames Iran for JCPOA collapse, overlooks U.S. withdrawal from the deal - Tehran Times - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- Iran seeks Russia's support for its nuclear talks with US - theheraldreview.com - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- Iran believes it can reach nuclear agreement with US, wants Russia to play role - The Times of Israel - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- Iran wants guarantees Trump will not quit a new nuclear pact, official says - The Times of Israel - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- US-Iran talks to be held in Rome following confusion over location - Euronews.com - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]