Iran nuclear talks: Deadline unlikely

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

Washington (CNN) -- As world powers are gathering in Vienna this week for a final round of nuclear talks with Iran, Western diplomats put their chances of a comprehensive deal at 50 percent at best and a breakthrough before the Nov. 24 deadline appears highly unlikely.

While an accord might not be met by next Monday's deadline, diplomats say it is possible to agree on the outline of a deal. They say an extension of the talks to resolve the remaining issues and work out the details is the most likely scenario.

Though nobody is talking publicly yet about the prospects for an extension, one senior administration official said a continuation of the talks was far preferable to a total collapse of the process.

"We are striving for a final deal, but if that doesn't happen, do we walk away and throw away all of the progress that has been made over these nine months," the official asked rhetorically. "We just can't do that."

The parties have been tight-lipped about the details of the negotiations, most of which are highly technical. While diplomatic sources say progress has been made on all issues, the main sticking points continue to center around Iran's uranium enrichment capacity and the pace at which decades long sanctions against Tehran would be lifted in exchange for intrusive inspections and curbs on its program.

A deal would help end decades of mutual mistrust between Iran and the West, paving the way for better relations and potential cooperation. But failure could lead to an unwanted military confrontation in a region already wracked by violence, instability and political chaos.

Negotiations are aimed at reconfiguring Iran's nuclear program in an effort to extend the time Iran would have enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon, otherwise known as the "breakout time." Experts say at present it could take Iran as little as three months. The six world powers want to extend that to at least a year, giving the international community time to intervene.

As the number of outstanding issues has dwindled, the differences over the remaining ones have grown sharper. Diplomats caution nothing is truly agreed to until everything is hammered out -- comparing the negotiations to a complex "Rubix Cube"-like puzzle.

Take Iran's enrichment program. A key component of extending Iran's breakout time centers around limiting the amount of enriched uranium Iran is able to produce and keep on hand.

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Iran nuclear talks: Deadline unlikely

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