Iran Is Just Loving the Trump Era So Far – Slate Magazine (blog)
An Iranian woman holds a placard showing a caricature of President Donald Trump at a rally marking the anniversary of the 1979 revolution on Feb. 10 in Tehran.
AFP/Getty Images
If youre feeling generous, you could say the one organizing principle of Donald Trumps foreign policy is that Iranian influence must be contained and rolled back. Though the president doesnt seem to agree on much with senior members of his national security team, like H.R. McMaster and James Mattis, these days, theyre on the same page when it comes to the threat posed by Tehrans regional ambitions. But far from being rolled back, Iranian influence appears to be spreading. And far from being united, the international community is deeply divided over how to respond. Some of the Trump administrations policies may even ultimately bolster the Islamic Republics growing clout.
Want to listen to this article out loud? Hear it on Slate Voice.
Listen to an audio recording of this article
Get Slate Voice, the spoken edition of the magazine, made exclusively for Slate Plus members. In addition to this article, youll hear a daily selection of our best stories, handpicked by our editors and voiced by professional narrators.
Your Slate Voice podcast feed
To listen to an audio recording of this article, copy this link and add it to your podcast app:
For full instructions see the Slate Plus podcasts FAQ.
Carlotta Gall of the New York Times reported over the weekend on Irans growing influence in Afghanistan. Iran is providing local Taliban insurgents with weapons, money and training. It has offered Taliban commanders sanctuary and fuel for their trucks. It has padded Taliban ranks by recruiting among Afghan Sunni refugees in Iran, according to Afghan and Western officials. Afghans also fear that Iran is working to subvert plans in Afghanistan for upstream dams that could threaten its water supply. Iranian influence has grown as the U.S. presence in Afghanistan has waned. From that perspective, the current debate within the U.S. administration over troop levels in the country presents something of a win-win for Iran: Washington will either commit more troops and financial resources to a fight it has little hope of winning (whatever winning means at this point) or it will draw down further and leave a power vacuum behind.
Weve seen this movie beforein Iraq, where Irans economic, political, and military influence is stronger than ever. Just days after the U.S. passed new sanctions on Iran last month, Baghdad signed a deal to boost military cooperation with Tehran. During his campaign, Trump often accused Barack Obama of handing the country over to Iran by withdrawing troops, but that die was probably cast in 2003, when the U.S. toppled the anti-Iranian government of a country that borders Iran and has a majority Shiite population. When the Iraqi military collapsed in the face of ISIS in 2014, Iranian-backed Shiite militias stepped in, doing much of the fighting against the group. Now that ISIS has been mostly ousted from the country after the fall of Mosul, those militias dont seem to be in a hurry to disband.
As reporter Borzou Daragahi recently reported in a lengthy investigative piece for BuzzFeed, militias, overseen by the secretive Quds force of Irans Revolutionary Guards, are an increasingly dominant force throughout the region. This is particularly true in Syria, where, in recent years, Iranian-backed militias have done the bulk of the on-the-ground fighting on behalf of Bashar al-Assads embattled regime. The Revolutionary Guards have reportedly also found ways to continue to supply covert arms shipments to their Houthi allies in Yemen, despite a U.S.-backed embargo.
President Trump noted these developments in his speech at a regional summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, in May, arguing that nations of conscience must work together to isolate Iran, deny it funding for terrorism, and pray for the day when the Iranian people have the just and righteous government they deserve. (The last part was a bit rich for a speech delivered to an audience primarily of monarchs and dictators.) To this end, the administration has supported new sanctions on Irans ballistic missile program, increased support for the brutal Saudi-led air campaign in Yemen, and may yet cancel the 2015 nuclear deal.
But U.S. moves have not been consistently anti-Iranian. The recent reports that the CIA is dropping its support for anti-Assad rebels in Syria is the clearest signal yet that the U.S. plans to leave the Syrian strongman in power, giving Iran an unblocked string of allies through Iran and Syria to the Mediterranean. At one point last spring, the U.S. military was actually firing on Iranian-backed militias to protect a group of rebels being trained by U.S. special forces in Southern Syria, but CNN reported recently that those rebels have left the U.S. coalition after they were told they were only to fight ISIS, not Assad. Some have even been recruited by the regime to switch sides. And while American diplomats have reportedly worked to ensure that Iranian-backed foreign fighters wont be the ones on the ground enforcing the recent U.S.-Russia cease-fire deal, that hasnt mollified the Israeli government, which opposes the cease-fire on the grounds that it will ensure a long-term Iranian presence in Syria.
Iran has also benefited at times from the confusion and mixed signals coming out of Washington. In June, Saudi Arabia and its allies cut off diplomatic relations with neighboring Qatar and imposed a blockade, demandingamong other thingsthat it cease its relatively friendly relations with Iran. The Saudis maximalist position was no doubt encouraged by Trumps fighting words in Riyadh, and indeed the president took credit for the situation on Twitter. But Secretary of State Rex Tillerson took a neutral approach to the situation, and the U.S. continued to move forward on an arms deal with Qatar, undermining the Saudi position. Qatar hasnt backed down, and ironically the blockades main impact has been to deepen Qatars economic ties to Iran.
The new set of U.S. sanctions on Iran may have an impact on some high-ranking members of the Revolutionary Guards, but its overall impact on Irans policies will probably be limited, as other countries seem unlikely to follow suit. China has been investing heavily in Irans infrastructure as part of its global One Belt, One Road trade initiative. European companies have also been investing in Iran since the lifting of nuclear sanctions: Just Monday, French carmaker Renault signed a $780 million deal to increase vehicle production in Iran. EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherinis attendance over the weekend at President Hassan Rouhanis inauguration for a second term was another sign that European governments arent heeding Washingtons calls to isolate Iran.
Thats going to be a problem if Trump follows through on his tweets to blow up the nuclear deal entirely: The U.S. can reimpose its own sanctions, but they wont have the same bite they did before 2015 if other countries dont join the push. Trump has made matters worse by signaling that he plans to certify Iran as noncompliant with the deal, whether or not his intelligence agencies conclude that it is. This makes it patently obvious that the U.S. administration wants to kill the deal no matter what and has no serious intention of giving diplomacy a chance. If Trump goes through with it, Iran could end up with something it almost never has: widespread international support.
It would be ironic if this deeply anti-Iranian administration ended up increasing Irans regional clout and global influence. Of course, this assumes the Trump administration doesnt follow its current Iran policies to their logical endpoint: armed conflict. Thats not a good outcome for anyone.
See the original post:
Iran Is Just Loving the Trump Era So Far - Slate Magazine (blog)
- Iran faces stiff sanctions if no deal by end of August, U.S. and allies agree - Axios - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- As Iran Deports a Million Afghans, Where Do We Even Go? - The New York Times - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Lessons Observed from the War Between Israel and Iran - War on the Rocks - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Europeans Threaten to Reimpose Tough U.N. Nuclear Sanctions on Iran - The New York Times - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- The scale of Afghans returning from Iran is overwhelming, says UN official - AP News - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Trump was reelected with help from podcasters like Joe Rogan. Is he losing their support over Epstein and Iran? - ABC News - Breaking News, Latest... - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Trump says Iran would like to talk but hes in no rush after striking nuclear sites - The Times of Israel - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Afghan Women and Girls Deported From Iran Fear Returning to Afghanistan - The New York Times - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- US, European allies to give Iran until end of August to reach nuclear deal report - The Times of Israel - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Iran Seeks Backing from China and Russia After U.S. Airstrikes - Newsweek - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- France, UK and Germany would restore UN sanctions on Iran next month without progress on a deal - ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Iran says it will respond to reimposition of UN sanctions - Reuters - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Eric Navarro on Newsmax: Hamas, Gaza, and Iran - Middle East Forum - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- The humiliating way Israel achieved air superiority in Iran during the 12-Day War - We Are The Mighty - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Video: Why So Many Afghans Have Been Forced Out of Iran - The New York Times - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Professor who called for Iran to strike US base removed, Georgetown says at House hearing - JNS.org - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Whats the legacy of the Iran nuclear deal and its collapse? - Al Jazeera - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Iran and the Logic of Limited Wars - Foreign Policy - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Israel's air superiority in Iran conflict can't be compared to either Russia or Ukraine - Middle East Eye - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Iran Insists on Preconditions before Resuming Nuclear Talks with US - kaohoon international - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Iran threatens Europe as France, Germany, and UK weigh snapback options - Long War Journal - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Iran into in FIBA Womens Asia Cup 2025 Division B semis - Tehran Times - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- EU sets deadline to reinstate sanctions on Iran over nuclear program - Ynetnews - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Iran and Israel Don't Understand Each Other's Narrative. The War Can Restart Soon - IranWire - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Netanyahu says hes confident hostage deal can be reached, Iran in deep trouble - The Times of Israel - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- In US, Iran strikes afterglow buys Netanyahu time to carry on ineffective Gaza war - The Times of Israel - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- Iran sees chance for nuclear deal with U.S. even after attacks - The Washington Post - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- Israeli F-15 malfunctioned above Iran in war, just avoided emergency landing report - The Times of Israel - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- Iran vows Israel will 'pay the price' for 'assassination' attempt on president - Ynetnews - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- Putin urges Iran to take 'zero enrichment' nuclear deal with US, Axios reports - Reuters - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- Open letter to Thomas Friedman: Calls for diplomacy with Iran have poor timing - opinion - The Jerusalem Post - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- How the 12-day Israel-Iran war could rebuild the Middle East - The Hill - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- Putin said to tell Trump, Iran that he backs deal barring Tehran from enriching uranium - The Times of Israel - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- Iran Says Its Considering US Offer to Restart Nuclear Talks - Bloomberg - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- What will it take to end Iran's nuke program? An army. - The Japan Times - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- Russia Slams Report It Urged Iran To Agree To Zero enrichment As 'defamation' - i24NEWS - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- Iran: Israel Will Pay the Price for Allegedly Trying to Kill Pezeshkian - Algemeiner.com - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- The cost of assumptions: Iran, Oct. 7 and the power of a conceptzia - JNS.org - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- Tehran dreams of a country like Israel, and Tel Aviv fears becoming Iran - The Jerusalem Post - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- FM Araqchi says Iran to work with IAEA, but inspections may be risky - Reuters - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Opinion | Whats Trumps Next Move on Iran? - The Wall Street Journal - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Rep. Omar on Minnesota shootings, Iran and So Called 'Big, Beautiful Bill' - House.gov - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Why is it easier to defeat a big power like Iran than the Palestinians? - JNS.org - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Satellite images show damage at the US base Iran attacked with ballistic missiles one of which hit it - Business Insider - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Pentagon confirms Iran's attack on Qatar air base hit dome used for US communications - Australian Broadcasting Corporation - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators Results From Iran Strike Will Inform Its Future: Defense Officials - The War Zone - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Iran threat to UK is significant and rising, lawmakers say - Reuters - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Emerging from the Israel-Iran war - Al Jazeera - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Mass arrests and executions: Kurds in Iran bear the brunt of war with Israel - Ynetnews - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Iran confirms it arrested 16-year-old French-German biker last month - The Times of Israel - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- The war lasted 12 days. The environmental impact on Iran may last decades - Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Iran poses significant threat to United Kingdom, British lawmakers say in new report - The Times of Israel - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- A weakened Iran and Hezbollah gives Lebanon an opening to chart path away from the regions conflicts will it be enough? - The Conversation - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Trump brushes off Iran's assassination threat with a don't care attitude - Hindustan Times - Hindustan Times - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Son of couple held in Iran: 'They aren't spies, they're Mum and Dad' - BBC - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- China likely to strengthen backing for Iran as it looks to secure interests - South China Morning Post - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- How Turkey Views the Iran-Israel Confrontation - The Washington Institute - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- How the West Can Ensure Iran Never Gets the Bomb - The Atlantic - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Who Will Become the Next Supreme Leader of Iran? - NPR - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Israel Won the War It Fought. But Iran Emerged Victorious in the One That Mattered - Haaretz - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Russia vows to refill Iran's uranium stocks, as Netanyahu warns that enriched supply was unscathed during the war - New York Post - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Opinion | The Fallout From the Iran Strikes - WSJ - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Pakistans ability to thread the needle in relations with the US and Iran tested by the Israel-Iran war - Middle East Institute - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- How Israel tracked down and assassinated scientists involved in Iran's nuclear program - Le Monde.fr - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- The Limits of Russias Friendship: How Moscow Sees the Iran Crisis - CSIS | Center for Strategic and International Studies - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- After US strikes, Iran is seeking closer ties to Europes pariah states - The Hill - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- A win for Tehran: experts assess Carlson's Iran interview - - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Time for Iran to make a no-enrichment nuclear deal - Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Israeli officials think Trump could give them green light to attack Iran again - Axios - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- We didnt wipe them out: Why Iran is still dangerous even after key strikes - The Times of Israel - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Iran's president says Tehran open to dialogue with US, accuses Israel of assassination attempt - Reuters - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Israel said to expect US backing for future strikes on Iran if it revives nuclear program - The Times of Israel - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Trump all for Iran peace talks, but ready, willing and able to strike again - The Hill - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Witkoff promises new nuclear talks with Iran within a week; Trump says not sure they have a purpose - The Times of Israel - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Iran demands accountability for Israel and US after war of aggression - Al Jazeera - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Iran gets significant diplomatic boost from BRICS bloc with Russia and China - Newsweek - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- After setback to Iran's nuclear program, Trump expected to leverage military support in Netanyahu meeting - Fox News - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- A timeline of the Iran-Israel war - Tehran Times - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Turkey is the new Iran - www.israelhayom.com - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- US, Iran de-escalate rhetoric, nudge to talks but Tehran wary of Israels influence - The Arab Weekly - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]