If Trump Undermines the Iran Deal – The Atlantic
There was a lot of news lost at the end of last week when Sean Spicer, the hapless White House press secretary, finally resigned. In any other news cycle, the revelation that Jared Kushner forgot about $10 million in assets on his ethics forms (weve all been there) or a U.S. senate candidate siding with members of the alt-right over the Anti-Defamation League would have garnered more attention.
One story that should not slip underneath the radar, however, is a report that the Trump administration has apparently entrusted a small group at the White House to undermine the Iran nuclear accords over the objections of the Departments of State and Defense.
The Worst Deal Ever That Actually Wasnt
The news says a lot about two very narrow ways in which the administration sees not only Iran but the greater world. First, some members of the administration have failed to see the admittedly very real challenges presented by Iran outside the binary U.S.-Iranian contest for influence in the Middle East. Second, and most importantly, some members of the administration still do not understand that much of what the United States has been able to accomplish over the past two decades has been achieved through coalitions that could actively resist U.S. efforts to roll back those accomplishments.
Many incoming members of the Trump administration felt strongly that the Obama administrationand perhaps even the Bush administration before itdropped the ball on meeting the challenges posed by Iran. They have half a point. Iran has posed three undeniable challenges to the United States and its partners since the September 11th attacks, and those challenges include its nuclear program, its conventional arms build-up, and its asymmetric activities supporting proxy groups and partners from Yemen to Lebanon.
From the perspective of many regional partners, including many Israelis and some key Gulf partners, the only solution to the threats posed by Iran is a change in the Iranian regime. The Obama administration, looking back on the regime change wars in both Iraq and Afghanistan as less than glittering successes, tried to break the problem down, though, and focus first on the nuclear program. Through painstaking diplomacy, the Obama administration and its international partners negotiated the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action to halt the Iranian nuclear program.
It was a monumental achievementalbeit one greeted with fury by those same regional partners who played no role in its negotiation. I accompanied the Secretary of Defense, Ash Carter, to some decidedly frosty meetings with Israeli and Saudi leaders once we finalized the deal, and I then watched the Saudis and Israelis unsuccessfully lobby the Congress over the summer to reject the deal.
If those regional partners had no success on Capitol Hill, though, they have had success in the Trump White House. And they were helped by the fact that many of the men who are working on the Middle East within the White House have as their frame of reference for Iran the war in Iraq between 2006 and 2008. U.S. Army veterans like Derek Harvey and Joel Rayburnboth mentioned in the report as staffers working on the Iran dealare not specialists on Iran but sure remember Iran and its proxies lobbing mortars into the Green Zone in Baghdad during the darkest days of 2007. Its not hard to understand why they might not have warm feelings toward the Iranians.
And its also understandable why they might criticize our efforts in the Obama administration. We addressed the Iranian nuclear program, sure, but we never curbed Irans asymmetric activities, which only got worse in Yemen and Syria in particular. Worse, some members of the Obama administration held out some hope that the nuclear deal might bring Iran in from the cold or moderate its behavior in other arenas. Needless to say, that did not happen.
Those of us who work on Middle East policy, though, often fail to remember theres a world beyond our particular region of focus. And Im struck by the words of one of our most senior military commanders in the waning days of the Obama administration: The more I look at North Korea, the more thankful I am for the Iran deal.
Few who work on North Korea think the Iran deal was a bad deal. Asia specialists would kill for the kind of deal we Middle East specialists spend so much time griping about.
In the same way, I understand why neither the Israelis nor the Gulf partners would ever want the United States to reduce the roughly 35,000 U.S. servicemen we have stationed in the Gulf region alone. But the United States has global obligations, and there is real opportunity cost to tying up so many U.S. resources in a region energy markets are making less important while the Pacific region grows in strategic significance. In that context, even the Obama eras most quixotic efforts to disentangle the United States from the Middle East look more excusable.
The second way in which the Trump administration is constricted by a very narrow focus, though, is the lack of appreciation for the way in which the United States has achieved most of its gains in the Middle Easteither against the Islamic State or Iranoperating as part of coalitions. Those same coalitions both enable and constrain U.S. actions.
Against the Islamic State, the United States assembled a broad coalition of nations to claw back Iraqi and Syrian territory. Thirty nations contribute to the military coalitionwith many more contributing diplomatic, intelligence, and humanitarian support. It is fair to say that few of these nations support an effort to carry the fight to Iran once Daesh is defeatedthough I know that some members of the Trump administrations national security staff are eager to challenge Irans proxies in Syria and Iraq.
The same goes for the other members of the United Nations Security Council, Germany, and the European Unionall of whom helped negotiate the nuclear deal with Iran. We Americans often describe Iran as a rogue state, but if the Trump administration is seen to be undermining the nuclear deal, it will not be Iran that our international partners consider rogue. The secretaries of State and Defense both understand this, and the president should as well. If the deal collapses, and the United States is seen as being the one to blame, multilateral diplomacy is no longer a viable option to contain Irans nuclear ambitions. Only a military strikeor series of military strikeswould suffice. This might be what some within the Trump administration want, and its certainly what many regional partners want, but its neither what Americas allies or Trumps voters want.
Ironically, six months into the Trump administration, there has been a lot more continuity in U.S. Middle East policy than change. But some members of the Trump administration remain obsessed with the former administration. In recent months, the top Gulf, Syria, and Iraq experts at the National Security Councilall career civil servants, but all suspected of having too many close ties to the Obama administrationhave been unceremoniously returned to their home agencies. Members of the administration go on Fox News and proclaim former Obama administration officialswho they had previously and incongruously denounced as nave and incompetentare running a vast conspiracy within the U.S. civil service to undermine the presidents agenda.
All of that creates a toxic environment whereby members of the Trump administration might be tempted to do things not because they are wise but simply because they reverse things the Obama administration did. When it comes to the Iran deal, that would be a mistake of epic proportions.
View post:
If Trump Undermines the Iran Deal - The Atlantic
- Trump revels America's military might as Iran fighting drags on - Axios - July 9th, 2026 [July 9th, 2026]
- Inside Trumps Oval Office Decision to Ditch the Iran Ceasefire - WSJ - July 9th, 2026 [July 9th, 2026]
- Live Updates: Iran and U.S. ramp up tit-for-tat strikes ahead of Ali Khamenei's burial - CBS News - July 9th, 2026 [July 9th, 2026]
- The Iran war has pushed some countries away from oil and toward clean energy - NPR - July 9th, 2026 [July 9th, 2026]
- U.S. and Iran exchange intense new attacks after Trump says ceasefire is over - NBC News - July 9th, 2026 [July 9th, 2026]
- Army review of Iran conflict's deadliest attack on U.S. soldiers to be shared with families - CBS News - July 9th, 2026 [July 9th, 2026]
- US and Iran exchange more attacks across the Mideast, threatening ceasefire deal - AP News - July 9th, 2026 [July 9th, 2026]
- The US has struck Iran at least 170 times in two days. But what is the goal? - CNN - July 9th, 2026 [July 9th, 2026]
- The US is striking Iran again. Can it ever deliver a knockout blow? - CNN - July 9th, 2026 [July 9th, 2026]
- First Thing: Second day of US strikes on Iran as Trump says Tehran behaving very badly - The Guardian - July 9th, 2026 [July 9th, 2026]
- Trump reopens the Iran war and a political problem he cant shake - The Washington Post - July 9th, 2026 [July 9th, 2026]
- Iran says millions are mourning Khamenei. Thats not the full picture - CNN - July 9th, 2026 [July 9th, 2026]
- Oil prices fall more than 2% as mediators try to prevent U.S. and Iran from returning to war - CNBC - July 9th, 2026 [July 9th, 2026]
- Iran unwilling to surrender control of the Strait of Hormuz: Former White House adviser Puneet Talwar - CNBC - July 9th, 2026 [July 9th, 2026]
- Gulf companies are set to reveal the unequal toll of Iran war - Reuters - July 9th, 2026 [July 9th, 2026]
- Trump wants to leave the Iran war behind. That won't happen soon - Reuters - July 9th, 2026 [July 9th, 2026]
- US and Iran exchange strikes: is Trumps peace deal over? | The Latest - The Guardian - July 9th, 2026 [July 9th, 2026]
- U.S. and Iran Trade Strikes For Second Night In a Row After Trump Says Cease-Fire Is 'Over' - Time Magazine - July 9th, 2026 [July 9th, 2026]
- Joe Rogan says Trump might have 'f---ed it up' with the Iran War - USA Today - July 9th, 2026 [July 9th, 2026]
- Is the US at war? Answering your questions about the US-Iran conflict - KMBC - July 9th, 2026 [July 9th, 2026]
- Explosions heard in areas in southern Iran - The Times of Israel - July 9th, 2026 [July 9th, 2026]
- Trump says ceasefire with Iran is 'over' as NATO summit wraps - NPR - July 9th, 2026 [July 9th, 2026]
- The Iran Mess Is Getting Messier. Heres What It Means for Trump. - WSJ - July 9th, 2026 [July 9th, 2026]
- What options does Trump have now in Iran? Not many, and theyre all bad - CNN - July 9th, 2026 [July 9th, 2026]
- Iran reports casualties and infrastructure damage after US strikes as tensions in the Gulf rise - Euronews.com - July 9th, 2026 [July 9th, 2026]
- Trump now claims Iran has already been denuclearized. So what was the point of the war? - CNN - July 9th, 2026 [July 9th, 2026]
- Is an Iran deal over and war back on? A timeline of the conflict and talks - AP News - July 9th, 2026 [July 9th, 2026]
- Everyone wants Israel out of the US-Iran war. That could change in hours - Ynetnews - July 9th, 2026 [July 9th, 2026]
- Europe prepares to go it alone as Trump returns to war in Iran - Politico - July 9th, 2026 [July 9th, 2026]
- Divisions Festered Within Iran Over Talks With the U.S. - The New York Times - July 9th, 2026 [July 9th, 2026]
- We Investigated Damage From Iran to a U.S. Naval Base. Heres What We Found. - WSJ - June 28th, 2026 [June 28th, 2026]
- U.S. says it hit targets in Iran as hostilities erupt over Hormuz for third day - The Washington Post - June 28th, 2026 [June 28th, 2026]
- U.S. launches additional Iran strikes as tensions flare up over Hormuz - NBC News - June 28th, 2026 [June 28th, 2026]
- Iran narrowly knocked out of tumultuous World Cup on Austrias last-second goal - AP News - June 28th, 2026 [June 28th, 2026]
- US airstrikes again hit Iran as Tehran strikes Bahrain and Kuwait, further imperiling interim deal - AP News - June 28th, 2026 [June 28th, 2026]
- The US and Iran exchange new attacks over Strait of Hormuz as Tehran tries to close competing route - Fortune - June 28th, 2026 [June 28th, 2026]
- Iran captain Mehdi Taremi accuses FIFA of staging disaster World Cup: No one helps us - The Athletic - The New York Times - June 28th, 2026 [June 28th, 2026]
- Kuwait and Bahrain say Iran targeted them with drone and missile strikes - AP News - June 28th, 2026 [June 28th, 2026]
- Is Iran eliminated from 2026 World Cup? Result hinges on Austria vs Algeria - Yahoo Sports - June 28th, 2026 [June 28th, 2026]
- US, Iran trade strikes: What to know, will it unravel the MoU? - Al Jazeera - June 28th, 2026 [June 28th, 2026]
- 2026 World Cup: Iran earns tie and immediately needs to leave U.S. - The Seattle Times - June 28th, 2026 [June 28th, 2026]
- Iran urge FIFA to stand up to really terrible World Cup treatment by US - Al Jazeera - June 28th, 2026 [June 28th, 2026]
- Iran and South Korea miss out on World Cup last 32 in dramatic third-place race - The Guardian - June 28th, 2026 [June 28th, 2026]
- Gulf countries strongly condemn Iran's drone attack on Bahrain as rising tensions threaten MOU - Fox News - June 28th, 2026 [June 28th, 2026]
- U.S. and Iran each announce retaliatory strikes in Iran, Kuwait and Bahrain - NPR - June 28th, 2026 [June 28th, 2026]
- Trump sows confusion on Iran war, bouncing from threats to negotiation and back again - NBC News - June 28th, 2026 [June 28th, 2026]
- Sirens sound over Kuwait as Iran targets country with drones and missiles - AP News - June 28th, 2026 [June 28th, 2026]
- Dispute over nuclear inspections shows how US and Iran are negotiating in public - AP News - June 28th, 2026 [June 28th, 2026]
- Centcom: US conducts additional strikes on Iran - The Hill - June 28th, 2026 [June 28th, 2026]
- US renews strikes on Iran after second tanker attack - The Telegraph - June 28th, 2026 [June 28th, 2026]
- Iran targets Bahrain and Kuwait with drones and missiles following US strikes - WRIC ABC 8News - June 28th, 2026 [June 28th, 2026]
- The Whiplash of Trumps Iran Capitulation - The Atlantic - June 28th, 2026 [June 28th, 2026]
- U.S. strikes Iran after Trump accuses Tehran of ceasefire violation in Strait of Hormuz - CNBC - June 28th, 2026 [June 28th, 2026]
- Iran attacks Bahrain and Kuwait following US strikes, threatens to end talks to end the war - Fox 59 - June 28th, 2026 [June 28th, 2026]
- Iran narrowly knocked out of tumultuous World Cup on Austrias last-second goal - Toronto Star - June 28th, 2026 [June 28th, 2026]
- U.S. strikes targets in Iran after Iranian drone attack on cargo ship, posing challenge to ceasefire - CBS News - June 28th, 2026 [June 28th, 2026]
- U.S. Strikes Iran in Retaliation for Attack on Vessel in Strait of Hormuz - The New York Times - June 28th, 2026 [June 28th, 2026]
- Trumps Gulf allies fear his Iran agreement is a disastrous turning point - CNN - June 28th, 2026 [June 28th, 2026]
- The U.S. has struck Iran to respond to a drone attack a day earlier on a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz, a provocation that President Donald Trump... - June 28th, 2026 [June 28th, 2026]
- Iran narrowly knocked out of World Cup after tumultuous contest on and off field - The Times of Israel - June 28th, 2026 [June 28th, 2026]
- Mideast Live Updates: Mediators Point to Progress After First Round of U.S.-Iran Talks - The New York Times - June 22nd, 2026 [June 22nd, 2026]
- Will the US and Iran go back to war, or could Trump walk away? - CNBC - June 22nd, 2026 [June 22nd, 2026]
- Iran leave note in dressing room thanking Los Angeles for World Cup hospitality - ESPN - June 22nd, 2026 [June 22nd, 2026]
- Shipping stalls in Strait of Hormuz after Iran declares key waterway closed again - CNBC - June 22nd, 2026 [June 22nd, 2026]
- US-Iran talks enter new phase after Trump's threats shake first day of negotiations - AP News - June 22nd, 2026 [June 22nd, 2026]
- UK PM Starmer Resigns, First Round Of US-Iran Talks, Iran Deal Scrutiny - NPR - June 22nd, 2026 [June 22nd, 2026]
- What are the key outcomes of the Iran-US talks in Switzerland, what next? - Al Jazeera - June 22nd, 2026 [June 22nd, 2026]
- Iran war day 115: Lebanon truce appears to hold as Switzerland talks end - Al Jazeera - June 22nd, 2026 [June 22nd, 2026]
- Iran hails progress as first day of talks with US conclude after shaky start - The Guardian - June 22nd, 2026 [June 22nd, 2026]
- As War With U.S. Eases, Iran Steps Up Hangings of Dissidents - WSJ - June 22nd, 2026 [June 22nd, 2026]
- Iran shows Trump just how hard making peace will be - CNN - June 22nd, 2026 [June 22nd, 2026]
- Part of our culture: Iran defying hardships and dreaming of first World Cup knockout round appearance - NBC News - June 22nd, 2026 [June 22nd, 2026]
- Iran feels oppressed at this World Cup its players are battling toward history anyway - The New York Times - June 22nd, 2026 [June 22nd, 2026]
- Two Iranian men share their thoughts on the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran - NPR - June 22nd, 2026 [June 22nd, 2026]
- Iran deny U.S. claim that team tried to bring Revolutionary Guard member to L.A. - ESPN - June 22nd, 2026 [June 22nd, 2026]
- Former diplomat on how Israelis are reacting to the U.S.-Iran talks - NPR - June 22nd, 2026 [June 22nd, 2026]
- Blockade lifted, assets to be returned to Iran in Swiss talks breakthrough - South China Morning Post - June 22nd, 2026 [June 22nd, 2026]
- Live - US, Iran agree on roadmap for final deal despite early tensions | Iran International - - June 22nd, 2026 [June 22nd, 2026]
- Catholic leaders hope end to Iran war is near after Trump, Iran reach agreement - Catholic Standard - June 22nd, 2026 [June 22nd, 2026]
- US and Iran make progress in talks, aim to keep Hormuz open - AFR - June 22nd, 2026 [June 22nd, 2026]