If a deal is done, would Iran cheat?
Story highlights Authors: Iran's people want a deal in hopes of a better economy They say Iran's leaders recognize that having a nuclear program can elevate its international clout
True, the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran has consistently denied it seeks anything more than nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. But Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's repeated claims in public forums that "We do not have nuclear weapons, and we do not intend to produce them," have failed to convince the United States, European Union and Israel.
Suspicion is well-warranted. Iran reluctantly disclosed to the International Atomic Energy Agency, or IAEA only after U.S.-led detection its clandestine enrichment of uranium at an underground facility near Qum, testing of bridge wires to explode the detonators of atom bombs at the Parchin military facility near Tehran, and development of an advanced multipoint trigger system for nuclear warheads. Even the IAEA director noted on March 2 that the agency still could not "provide credible assurance about the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities in Iran and therefore to conclude that all nuclear material in Iran is in peaceful activities."
As a result, the chief ayatollah's words seem more intended for defusing the international storm rather than changing domestic policy. Moreover, Khamenei has made it amply clear to Iran's citizens in the text of an infographic on his website, also reproduced by the state-controlled news media, that "Iran must not cease or slow down" but should "continue nuclear research, expansion, and progress."
He has threatened as well, repeatedly, that Iran will unleash a "crushing response" against any nation with which it clashes, making his stated intent to continue nuclear activities more ominous.
However, economically strapped and internationally isolated, Iran's citizens are putting pronounced pressure on President Hassan Rouhani and Khamenei. A November 2014 Gallup Poll indicates 70% of Iranians hope their leaders will accept an agreement. They expect the country's economy will jump-start through reduction or elimination of sanctions.
So Iranian politicians and clerics, even those on the National Security and Foreign Policy Parliamentary Committee, have gradually begun acknowledging that sooner or later "some sort of a result [i.e., nuclear deal]" will have to be accepted by Tehran.
Ordinary Iranians' desire to reach a pact with the West is understandable. Iran's economy ranks only 32nd in the world, according to data from the World Bank, despite its vast energy resources and well-educated public. Consequently its people's prosperity has fallen to a lowly 107th among the world's societies, according to the Legatum Institute.
Plunging oil prices have recently added to domestic woes, with that country facing deeper deficit in revenues much needed for development projects. Iranian leaders realize their regime remains vulnerable not only to externally imposed sanctions, but more so to internally generated widespread discontent, which erupted and was violently repressed in 2009.
Regime preservation has multiple facets, however. It's not just about keeping citizens fiscally happy. Nuclear weapons work well in deterring external adversaries. Processing such technology generates much pride at home, too. Fifty-six percent of Iranians responded favorably to its continued development when polled in January. Consequently there will be countervailing internal pressure on Iran's leaders to withstand fully meeting obligations under the Nonproliferation Treaty, irrespective of whether a deal is reached, even if the socioeconomic cost to their citizens and fever-pitch global consternation continue to rise.
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If a deal is done, would Iran cheat?
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