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Four more years of President Trump would almost certainly kill the Iran nuclear deal but the election of Joe Biden wouldnt necessarily save it.

The big picture: Rescuing the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is near the top of Biden's foreign policy priority list. He says he'd re-enter the deal once Iran returns to compliance, and use it as the basis on which to negotiate a broader and longer-lasting deal with Iran.

Breaking it down: Trump withdrew the U.S. from the deal in 2018, restoring U.S. sanctions and piling on new ones under a maximum pressure campaign that has devastated the Iranian economy.

The European signatories to the deal France, Germany and the U.K. have been desperately trying to save it.

But the Trump administration is attempting to finish off the deal, in part by adding a thicket of sanctions that Biden might find politically painful to remove.

Iran's domestic politics may prove more challenging still. The "reformist" administration of President Hassan Rouhani has been badly burned, and hardliners are expected to take over following presidential elections next June.

Where things stand: There are obstacles demands that Iran might make, our own politics, the more complicated relationship that the U.S. now has with Russia and China so this is not going to be smooth sailing," Malley says.

It took Iran about six months to come into compliance with the JCPOA the first time says Ernest Moniz, the former energy secretary who played a key role in negotiating that deal.

That means the earliest Iran could return to compliance would be right around the time its next administration takes office.

Moniz says a revitalized JCPOA would provide the world with confidence that Iran is not building a nuclear weapons program its original purpose but would be insufficient.

In future negotiations, Moniz adds, "regional concerns will have to be more front and center."

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was one of the loudest and most influential critics of the 2015 deal.

The Trump administration has demanded Iran negotiate on all of those fronts as part of any deal and claims it will be forced to if Trump is re-elected.

What to watch: Biden envisions almost precisely the opposite path to a broader deal with Iran, but acknowledges there's no guarantee Iran will even return to compliance with the JCPOA.

Go deeper: Biden's allies-first approach to China

Read the rest here:
How Biden might tackle the Iran deal - Axios