For Iran, Qatar Crisis Is a Welcome Distraction – New York Times
They wanted to weaken us, Mashallah Shamsolvaezin, an Iranian journalist, said with a chuckle, but now they are losing themselves.
While Iran and Qatar share one of the largest gas fields in the world and have diplomatic relations, Qatar is of little or no strategic value to Iran.
About the most that Tehran has had to say about the situation was a mild remark from President Hassan Rouhani, who told the emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, that Irans airspace, sea and ground transport links will always be open to Qatar, our brotherly and neighbor country.
After Mr. Trumps visit, however, Tehran was preparing to face a united bloc of wealthy, militarily well-equipped Persian Gulf nations ready to isolate Iran with the enthusiastic backing of the United States. Saudi Arabia had bought $100 billion worth of American weapons and had formed a close partnership against Tehran with Mr. Trump.
The United States, Saudi Arabia and Israel were painting Iran as the primary source of instability in the region, a nation supporting terrorist groups in Yemen, Lebanon and Gaza and fighting on behalf of the government of President Bashar al-Assad in Syria. The road to ratcheting up the pressure on Iran a sectarian rival hated by the Saudi kingdom for its version of political Islam seemed open.
Then they started fighting among themselves.
A Qatari news report, subsequently dismissed by the Qatari government as fake, was said to have quoted the emir as saying he wanted to ease tensions with Iran. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates reacted furiously, starting a diplomatic and trade blockade against the gas-rich nation, handing over the list of 13 demands demand 13: agree to all our demands and even forbidding their citizens to wear Barcelona soccer jerseys because they bear the name of their sponsor, Qatar Airways.
One of those demands is that Qatar close a Turkish military base, which would alienate Turkey, a NATO member and an ally of Saudi Arabia in Syria. Instead of making an Arab NATO, they are only making more enemies, said Hamidreza Taraghi, a hard-line analyst in Iran. In the end, only America is benefiting, selling all those weapons to those countries.
But even there, the Persian Gulf confrontation is creating some nervous moments for the Pentagon, which is running the Syria air campaign out of a major base in Qatar.
It was a familiar turn of events for the clerics in Tehran, whose regional competition with Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries sometimes means just waiting for the Saudis to shoot themselves in the foot, analysts here say.
That strategy seems even more appropriate with the rise of Mohammed bin Salman, 31, the recently named Saudi crown prince, who is developing a reputation for impulsive foreign policy moves that do not work out as planned. He is the architect of the Saudi war in neighboring Yemen, which was supposed to be a blitzkrieg that would end in two days but is dragging into its third year and has caused a horrific humanitarian crisis.
Now, the crown prince is seen as the driving force behind the effort to isolate Qatar.
Meanwhile, Iranian news outlets have gleefully reported how the country is reaping fees for the increased use of its airspace by Qatar Airways.
Over the years, Iran has usually preferred to play the long game, lying low and working with local proxies rather than going for quick victories.
When, for instance, Mr. Assad was threatened by forces backed by Saudi Arabia, Tehran quietly drip fed first hundreds and now thousands of troops into the conflict. It drew on numerous sources, especially the battle-hardened soldiers of the Lebanese Shiite militia, Hezbollah; Shiite militias from Iraq; and Afghans conscripted into the Iranian armed forces.
Qatar cannot expect support beyond the planeloads of food it has already been sent, analysts say. It is cherry season in Iran, so most probably the Qataris are now chewing on those, some people suggest here.
Our interests are best served if there is no war, conflict or any further tensions in our region, said Hossein Sheikholeslam, an adviser to Irans foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif. We try to act rationally, because the opponents in the region are young and unripe and irrational in their approach with Qatar.
Watching from the sidelines, while enemies fight, can have benefits. Its like Kuwait, when Saddam Hussein invaded it in 1990 our enemy makes a move and weakens himself, Mr. Taraghi, the hard-line analyst, said.
The only thing Iran did in that case was to open its airspace when Mr. Hussein needed a safe haven for his fighter jets when the United States invaded. He sent over 100 warplanes. The Iranians said, Thank you and never returned them.
We just remained neutral and won, Mr. Taraghi said.
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For Iran, Qatar Crisis Is a Welcome Distraction - New York Times
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