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If Irans leaders thought things couldnt get worse, they were wrong. The country faces three simultaneous crises: a public health emergency that is worsening by the hour, tensions with the United States that have once again grown in the past few days, and an economic picture that could go from troubled to dire in a matter of months.

The confluence of a coronavirus pandemic, security threats, and financial troubles has deepened the political systems legitimacy crisis in the wake of last months parliamentary elections that saw the lowestturnoutin the Islamic Republics history. Washington might view this as a validation of its so-called maximum pressure strategy against Tehran, but if it fails to capitalize on this moment to de-escalate tensions and lay the groundwork for a mutually beneficial diplomatic settlement, the leadership in Tehran is likely to become more aggressive in the region, increasing the risk of a conflict that neither side appears to want.

Since the dramaticescalationsof late 2019 and early 2020, which culminated in the killing of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Qassem Suleimani and Iranian missile strikes on Iraqi bases hosting U.S. forces, both Iran and the United States appeared content to return to their respective corners.

But there has been a steady stream of incidents in Iraq, with at least seven attacks near U.S. diplomatic facilities insideBaghdads Green Zone and U.S. military installations in Iraq throughout January and February. These attacks spiked on March 11 following a barrage of rockets that killed three members of the U.S.-led coalition, including two Americans, and injured more than a dozen others at an Iraqi army base, Camp Taji, north of Baghdad.

U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper subsequentlyassessedthat Iranian-backed Shiite militia groups were responsible. Secretary of State Mike Pompeowarnedthat those responsible must be held accountable. A day later, the United Statesretaliatedagainst an Iranian-backed Iraqi militia in Iraq, which in turnfiredmore rockets into Camp Taji on March 14 and again on March 17.

This latest moment of peril is playing out against the backdrop of a dramatic COVID-19 outbreak in Iran, which has the third-highestnumberof confirmed cases and fatalities anywhere in the world. The Iranian government was slow inresponding to the outbreak; and when it finally realized its scale and scope, Tehran was hampered by shortages caused by sanctions. Moreover, the government has kept a worryingly tight grip on the information flow to save face, prompting fears that the death tollcurrently listed as 988is probably muchhigherthan the official figures suggest.

With Tehrans initial response being dismissive of the risks of the viruss spread and slow to mobilize against it, the government is now pleading for international assistance. Having already scored several calamitous own goals in recent monthsraising fuel prices with little warning in November 2019, then violently suppressing subsequent protests, and in January downing a Ukrainian civilian airliner in the apparent belief it was an incoming U.S. missilethe governments response to the coronavirus crisis could increase the populations sense that its leadership is incompetent.

Meanwhile, the impact of the rapidly spreading disease and collapse in oil prices will likely present almost unprecedented challenges to an economy that is already beset by government mismanagement and under siege from U.S. sanctions.

One Iranian officialcalculateda drop of 18 percent in trade as a result of the pandemicand that was before Iraq, a key regional trade partner, announced a fullclosureof the two countries common land borders and the price of crude tumbled below $30 per barrel. (While Irans exports have been blocked by the United States since April 2019, it has continued to make sales to China, albeit at sharply reducedlevels.) The combination of reduced regional trade, evaporation of remaining oil revenue, and COVID-19simpacton domestic business could prove catastrophic.

But that doesnt mean that Tehran will bow to U.S. pressure and back down. Indeed, since May 2019, when the Iranian government chose to counter U.S. maximum pressure with a blend of nuclear and regional provocations, the systems hard-liners have contended that high-risk brinkmanship yields greater dividends than restraint.

The coronavirus outbreak has now put more pressure on the leaderships calculus. Feeling besieged and with no obvious diplomatic exit ramp, Iran might conclude that only a confrontation with the United States might change a trajectory thats heading in a very dangerous direction. This isalso the view of Gen. Kenneth McKenzie, the head of U.S. Central Command, whotoldCongress on March 10 that the outbreak probably makes them, in terms of decision-making, more dangerous rather than less dangerous.

With U.S. President Donald Trump focused on the domestic economic and electoral effects of the coronavirus and the Iranian leadership highly reluctant to display any weakness to the United States, neither side is likely in the mood to engage the other.

That would be a missed opportunity. Indeed, both Washington and Tehran have floated ideas that, if acted upon, could break the current vicious cycle. Pompeo hasurgedthe Iranian governmentwhich furloughed tens of thousands of convictsdue to fears of an epidemic in prisonsto free U.S. prisoners and other dual and foreign nationals on humanitarian grounds. The death of any of those inmates from COVID-19 would be a stain Iran might find hard to erase.

Conversely, Iran hasaskedthe International Monetary Fund for emergency funding and a substantiallistof essential equipment ranging from gloves and masks to portable respiration and X-ray machines. If the Trump administration stands in the way of such basic needsby voting against an IMF loan to Iranthe United States would find it hard to overcome the impression that it had acted inhumanely.

The most logical and mutually beneficial outcome would be a two-phased humanitarian de-escalation. Iran would need to first agree to furlough all detained foreigners as the U.S. facilitates the transfer of medicine and medical equipment Iran needs to contain the outbreak and save lives without any sanctions-relateddelays.

In the second phase, the U.S. government could agree not to block the IMF loan to Iran while Tehran freezes its nuclear escalation and reins in its allied groups in Iraq, preventing any further attacks on U.S. forces and assets. This phase could also comprise another prisoner swap, either on par with the one-for-one exchange that happened back inDecemberor, even better, a broader exchange of prisoners. This would be a win-win: putting tensions with Iran on ice, providing Trump with another success in his efforts to free Americans detained abroad, and providing Tehran with some economic reprieve and the means to save lives at home.

Since 2018, when the Trump administration pulled out of the nuclear deal with Iran, Washington and Tehran have been on a collision course pitting unrealistic U.S. demands against Iranian inflexibility. For either side to let a possible diplomatic off-ramp pass by would mean that a dangerous and deadly situation might again take a turn for the worse.

Read more from the original source:
Faced With the Coronavirus, the United States and Iran Must Use Humanitarian Diplomacy to Dial Down Tensions - Foreign Policy