Downing of jet in Iran reveals Islamic Republic’s wider woes – The Associated Press
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) The Ukrainian jetliner stood ready for takeoff at Irans main international airport bound for Kyiv, packed with passengers and so many bags on one of the cheapest routes to the West that the ground crew rushed to unload some luggage to make its weight for flight.
Nearly an hour late, Tehran air traffic controllers finally cleared Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752 for takeoff, carrying a newlywed couple, Iranian students bound for universities in Canada and others seeking a better life abroad.
The plane would be shot down only minutes later by Irans paramilitary Revolutionary Guard.
Up until the moment soldiers fired missiles at the Boeing 737-800, Iran had faced decisive moments on how to respond to the world around it amid tensions with the U.S. Those decisions ultimately doomed the flight and all 176 people aboard, and also led to the public being lied to for days afterward, in the words of the countrys foreign minister.
What Iran decided then and later also reflects beyond the immediate tragedy, offering a glimpse inside of the country more than 40 years after its Islamic Revolution.
The downing of the jetliner highlights the limits of the civilian arm of Irans government against the absolute power held by the nations Shiite theocracy and the paramilitary forces beneath it. The anger that followed shows the choices Iranians make in the countrys sanctions-crushed economy and the unabated rage still lurking on its streets.
How Iran responds as a whole will affect a coming year that appears poised for further tensions. Tehrans nuclear deal with world powers hangs on a single thread, one that permits international inspection of its atomic sites and is already threatened. President Donald Trump, facing an impeachment trial and an election campaign, promises to impose ever-harsher sanctions. Meanwhile, more economic protests in Iran remain a threat as well.
The regime understands that Iranian society is a powder keg right now and that if its not careful, itll lose control of the situation really quickly, said Ariane Tabatabai, an Iran analyst at the U.S.-based RAND Corp. So, its using every tool at its disposal to avoid losing control.
THE FIGHT AND THE FLIGHT
Even before Trump entered the White House, he campaigned on a promise to tear up Irans 2015 nuclear deal with world powers. That agreement saw Tehran limit its enrichment of uranium in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions. Reached under Trumps predecessor Barack Obama, the deal kept Irans atomic program under constant surveillance by international inspectors and unable to produce enough material for a nuclear bomb if Tehran sought one.
Trump, however, unilaterally withdrew America from the arrangement in May 2018, saying it didnt go far enough in limiting Irans program, its ballistic missile stockpile and its influence through proxies in the wider Middle East.
Iran waited a year before beginning to break limits of the accord, each move slightly narrowing the estimated year it would need to have enough fissionable material for a nuclear weapon. Tehran insists it doesnt seek an atomic bomb, although the U.N. nuclear watchdog says evidence shows the Islamic Republic once had an organized weapons program that it ultimately abandoned in 2003.
Through the summer, tensions steadily rose with mysterious oil tanker attacks that the U.S. blamed on Iranian mines, as well as drone and missile assaults on oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia. Iran denied involvement in those assaults, although it did acknowledge shooting down a U.S. military surveillance drone and seizing tankers.
Then came the December death of a U.S. contractor in Iraq, following by an American airstrike on Iranian-backed forces allegedly behind the attack. Iranian-backed militias violently protested and attacked the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad.
The crisis reached a fever pitch Jan. 3 as a U.S. drone strike in Baghdad killed the prominent Revolutionary Guard Gen. Qassem Soleimani, who oversaw Irans proxies in the region. Trump later threatened to bomb 52 sites in Iran, including those important to the Iranian culture if Tehran retaliated.
Iran vowed revenge, and early on Jan. 8 it launched ballistic missiles at two bases in Iraq housing American troops, causing injuries but no fatalities among soldiers there. Iranian officials informally warned journalists and others that any American retaliation would bring missile strikes on Dubai and Haifa in Israel.
Yet commercial planes kept flying through Iranian airspace. Before the Ukrainian jetliner, nine other flights left Tehrans Imam Khomeini International Airport. The airplane was delayed nearly an hour to remove luggage from the overweight flight, investigators say.
Some have questioned how the flight could even be allowed to take off, as the Guard insists it suggested commercial aircraft be grounded amid the tensions.
But Iran isnt alone, as the shootdown of Malaysia Airlines Flight No. 17 over eastern Ukraine in 2014 shows. Pakistan remains the sole recent country to close its airspace over the risk of war as it did in 2019 amid tensions with India.
Countries cannot be relied upon to close risky airspace, nor issue damaging guidance on their own territories, wrote Mark Zee, the founder of the air-safety organization OPSGROUP. Governments have more pressing motivations: Trade, tourism, commerce. This will not change.
Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752 took off at 6:12 a.m. Its flaming wreckage would fall from the sky only six minutes later.
RECIPE FOR DISASTER
Just northwest of the airport, a Revolutionary Guard base among Tehrans arid foothills hid so-called coffin launchers ballistic missiles tilting skyward. Defending that base was at least one Tor-M1 anti-aircraft system, a Russian-made tracked vehicle whose spinning radar detected the flight. Its turret turned toward the flight, a secondary radar now tracking to get its position.
An operator inside would be able to see the flight as a blip on its radar screen, showing its speed and altitude. Commercial airliners broadcast their location by transponder, but it remains unclear what information those in the Tor had, said Jeremy Binnie, the Middle East editor of Janes Defence Weekly. Its also unclear if jamming or some sort of communications breakdown affected the troops thinking.
What is clear, however, is that the Guard, known for its aggression in confronting U.S. Navy vessels in the Persian Gulf, controlled that areas air defense. Iranian forces already stood at a high-alert level, fearful of American retaliation for the ballistic missile strike on the Iraqi bases housing U.S. troops hours earlier.
And that Tor unit, with an effective range of 12 kilometers (7.5 miles), fired one missile at its maximum distance toward the aircraft, according to a later briefing by the Guard. Surveillance video later obtained by The Associated Press showed that the missile streaked across the darkened sky and exploded.
The missile went off like a massive shotgun shell, pelting the airliner with a cloud of shrapnel. A piece of the fuselage and the cockpit later recovered showed its windows smashed and the metal scorched.
Ten seconds after the first explosion, the Tor crew fired another missile. It struck near the plane, which turned into a ball of flames before crashing in the rural town of Shahedshahr.
You can see how guys at that level of autonomy, high tensions and not clearing these civilian aircraft out of the airspace is a recipe for disaster, Binnie said. They just cant go on like that.
DAYS OF DENIALS
The Guard, answerable only to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, knew their missiles downed the flight when news broke of the crash. It remains unclear when they told Khamenei.
The 80-year-old cleric has final say on all state matters, faces no real check on his power and hasnt commented publicly on what he knew when.
But air-crash investigators, Iranian diplomats and others strongly denied that a missile shot down Flight 752, even as images from the crash site showed shrapnel damage to the plane and one image appeared to show the remains of a Tor-fired missile.
The head of Irans Civil Aviation Organization, Ali Abedzadeh, also mocked comments by Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and U.S. officials saying they believed a missile brought down the plane.
Scientifically speaking, their statements are not valid at all, Abedzadeh said.
The next day, Irans regular armed forces announced that the Guard unintentionally downed the aircraft as a result of human error. Iranian officials apologized, with at least two of the Guards top commanders publicly saying they wish they had died. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif went as far as to say the Iranian public were lied to for days.
But comments by Zarif and President Hassan Rouhani suggest Irans elected leaders initially knew nothing about the Guard shooting down the aircraft.
Its highly likely that most, if not all of the Rouhani government, were not aware of the same facts that were available to senior members within the Guard, said Ellie Geranmayeh, a senior fellow focusing on Iran at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
This split in power between Irans civilian government and the theocracy has been on display since 1988, when then-Prime Minister Mir Hossein Mousavi resigned. In a letter to then-President Khamenei, Mousavi criticized foreign policy and extraterritorial operations that took place without the knowledge and orders of the government.
There is talk everywhere about the foreign policy of the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran, without the government knowing about these policies that are mentioned everywhere in the country and the world, Mousavi wrote. After an airplane is hijacked, we get news about it. When a gun is fired in the streets of Lebanon, and the word gets around everywhere, we become aware of the situation. After explosives are found on our pilgrims in Jiddah, I learn about this affair.
Mousavi added: Unfortunately, despite all the harm and damage that these actions have caused the country, still operations similar to these can take place in the name of the government at any second and any hour.
This time, however, the operation saw Iranians killed inside the country itself by those supposed to be protecting them.
WHAT COMES NEXT
Iran put down street protests by students and others over the downing of the flight. But those demonstrations pale in comparison to recent unrest faced by Iran, particularly protests over government-set gasoline prices spiking in November. That unrest saw at least 300 people killed, according to Amnesty International.
While an earlier round of nationwide economic protests struck at the end of 2017, things only have gotten worse with the sanctions re-imposed on the country by Trump withdrawing from the nuclear deal, particularly those blocking Iran from selling crude oil abroad. Without that crucial source of government funding, Irans government struggles to make ends meet.
So far, Trumps administration has vowed to continue its maximum pressure campaign on Tehran. Trump himself has used the killing of Soleimani, whom he described as a terrorist monster, as part of his stump speeches at campaign rallies.
With Iran losing as much as $4 billion in revenue every month due to U.S. energy sanctions, it will not be easy for Tehran to hold out for the possibility of a new U.S. president being elected in November 2020, wrote Niamh McBurney, an analyst at Verisk Maplecroft.
Meanwhile, Britain, France and Germany instituted the so-called dispute mechanism of Irans unraveling nuclear deal, opening the possibility of international and U.N. sanctions returning.
My sense is that basically the Islamic Republic currently is a pressure cooker, Geranmayeh said. We will have periodic and probably escalatory ... protests in the country. A lot of what happens depends on how the security apparatus responds to these protests.
However, any major threat to the government could see the Guard employ the same bloody tactics it used in Syrias long war.
If there is a similar threat to their own power inside Iran as Bashar Assad faced, my sense is that they will use an infinitely more amount of force to push back to secure their own power, Geranmayeh said.
___
Follow Jon Gambrell on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/jongambrellAP.
View post:
Downing of jet in Iran reveals Islamic Republic's wider woes - The Associated Press
- Trump brushes off Iran's assassination threat with a don't care attitude - Hindustan Times - Hindustan Times - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Son of couple held in Iran: 'They aren't spies, they're Mum and Dad' - BBC - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- China likely to strengthen backing for Iran as it looks to secure interests - South China Morning Post - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- How Turkey Views the Iran-Israel Confrontation - The Washington Institute - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- How the West Can Ensure Iran Never Gets the Bomb - The Atlantic - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Who Will Become the Next Supreme Leader of Iran? - NPR - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Israel Won the War It Fought. But Iran Emerged Victorious in the One That Mattered - Haaretz - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Russia vows to refill Iran's uranium stocks, as Netanyahu warns that enriched supply was unscathed during the war - New York Post - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Opinion | The Fallout From the Iran Strikes - WSJ - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Pakistans ability to thread the needle in relations with the US and Iran tested by the Israel-Iran war - Middle East Institute - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- How Israel tracked down and assassinated scientists involved in Iran's nuclear program - Le Monde.fr - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- The Limits of Russias Friendship: How Moscow Sees the Iran Crisis - CSIS | Center for Strategic and International Studies - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- After US strikes, Iran is seeking closer ties to Europes pariah states - The Hill - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- A win for Tehran: experts assess Carlson's Iran interview - - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Time for Iran to make a no-enrichment nuclear deal - Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Israeli officials think Trump could give them green light to attack Iran again - Axios - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- We didnt wipe them out: Why Iran is still dangerous even after key strikes - The Times of Israel - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Iran's president says Tehran open to dialogue with US, accuses Israel of assassination attempt - Reuters - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Israel said to expect US backing for future strikes on Iran if it revives nuclear program - The Times of Israel - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Trump all for Iran peace talks, but ready, willing and able to strike again - The Hill - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Witkoff promises new nuclear talks with Iran within a week; Trump says not sure they have a purpose - The Times of Israel - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Iran demands accountability for Israel and US after war of aggression - Al Jazeera - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Iran gets significant diplomatic boost from BRICS bloc with Russia and China - Newsweek - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- After setback to Iran's nuclear program, Trump expected to leverage military support in Netanyahu meeting - Fox News - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- A timeline of the Iran-Israel war - Tehran Times - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Turkey is the new Iran - www.israelhayom.com - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- US, Iran de-escalate rhetoric, nudge to talks but Tehran wary of Israels influence - The Arab Weekly - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Sen. Steve Daines says regime change is the best long-term plan in Iran - Fox News - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Why Iran emerged victorious in its war with Israel - Tehran Times - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Why has Iran stepped up its deportation of Afghan refugees? - Al Jazeera - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Iran alone in crises: Where were Russia, China in their time of need? - Euronews.com - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- The 12-day conflict is over: What is next for Iran? | Daily Sabah - Daily Sabah - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Iran President Accuses Israel of Assassination Attempt in Interview with Tucker Carlson - Algemeiner.com - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- I will never regret coming: Amid Israels devastating strikes on Iran, a woman traveling solo had to find her way out - CNN - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- A text, a Telegram link, then an offer of money: how Iran sought to recruit spies in Israel - The Guardian - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Tucker Carlson says to air interview with president of Iran - Reuters - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- CNN in Iran: Behind the scenes with our team - CNN - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- A fragile ceasefire in the Israel-Iran war tests the harmony of Los Angeles' huge Iranian community - AP News - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Nuclear Inspectors Leave Iran After Cooperation Halted With U.N. Watchdog - The New York Times - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Israel concealed information about Iran's destruction of five military sites, satellite images show - Tehran Times - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Only diplomacy will stop the atomic bomb: Reflections following the war against Iran - EL PAS English - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Readers sound off on what Iran achieved, Diddys jurors and Sen. Lisa Murkowski - New York Daily News - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- American Solo Traveler Was in Iran When It Was Bombed. She Documents How She Fled the Country (Exclusive) - People.com - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Iran hit five Israeli military bases in 12-day war The Telegraph - - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Why Hamas can keep fighting without Iran, and what that means for Israel - opinion - The Jerusalem Post - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Iran's uranium supply chain must be thwarted as nuclear program grows - The Jerusalem Post - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Why Im banned from Iran, Israel and the US despite breaking no rules - The Telegraph - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Why Trump stopped calling on Iran to surrender - The Spectator World - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- A week into the fragile Israel-Iran peace agreement, heres what we still dont know - AP News - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Dont look away from whats happening in Iran - The Boston Globe - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Its offensive: voices from Iran as fans face 2026 World Cup travel ban - The Guardian - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Tucker Carlson interviews the president of IRAN - Daily Mail - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Divine justice: IAF is Gods army, striking Iran as prophesized in the Bible - The Times of Israel - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- New Cold War?: US faces long-term battle to contain Iran after Trump's strike on their nuclear facilities - Fox News - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- The Israel-Iran war has not yet transformed the Middle East - The Economist - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Opinion | Iran Is Terrorizing Its Own Citizens. The World Needs to Respond. - The New York Times - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Trump meets with Saudi defense minister at the White House and discusses situation in Iran - Axios - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- US issues first wave of Iran sanctions after ceasefire in 12-day war - Al Jazeera - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- France demands immediate release of French couple held in Iran for three years - Reuters - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- US-Iran nuclear talks to resume in Oslo next week for first time since war report - The Times of Israel - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Will Trumps Strikes on Iran Really Stop Its Nuclear Program? - The New York Times - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Between Gaza and Iran, Israel's Hidden War in the West Bank Is Flaring Up - Newsweek - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- After ceasefire, Iran is preparing for the long war with Israel - Middle East Eye - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Iran becomes the latest Russian ally to discover the limits of Kremlin support - Atlantic Council - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Trump says Iran wants to meet 'very badly' after US strikes - - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Iran can still build nuclear weapons without further enrichment. Only diplomacy will stop it - Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Pentagon says US strikes set back Iran nuclear program one to two years - The Guardian - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Assessing the U.S. Article 51 Letter for the Attack on Iran: Legal Lipstick on the Use of Force Pig - Just Security - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Suspected Iran spies accused of plotting assassination of senior figure in Israel - The Times of Israel - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Will Iran conflicts aftermath drive Israel, Saudi Arabia towards normalization? - Breaking Defense - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Israel's economy can't survive a long war with Iran - and Trump knows it - Middle East Eye - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- US slams Iran for unacceptable suspension of ties with UN nuclear watchdog - The Times of Israel - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- U.S. Launches Eighth Round of Sanctions Targeting Iran's Oil and Tankers - The Maritime Executive - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Opinion | John Bolton: Trumps Work in Iran Has Only Begun - The New York Times - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Iran assesses the damage and lashes out after Israeli and US strikes damage its nuclear sites - AP News - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Iran Suspected of Scouting Jewish Targets in Europe - WSJ - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Opinion | War With Iran Exposes the Emptiness of the Axis of Autocracy - Politico - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Iran Pivots Toward China, But Is Beijing Ready To Play Ball? - Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- The global implications of the US strikes on Iran - Brookings - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Iran readied to mine Strait of Hormuz after Israel began strikes US sources - The Times of Israel - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]