Commentary: Why Iran is positioned to dominate the Middle East – MyStatesman.com
By aligning the U.S. with Saudi Arabia, President Donald Trump is foolishly looking only to the short term. Iran is already the most influential country in Iraq. Its ally, Hezbollah, is the greatest force in Lebanon. Together, they are the primary reason why Bashar al-Assad is holding on in Syria.
Iran is behind the rebellion in Yemen. Its influence is growing in Afghanistan. Irans vision of the future as no longer dependent on oil has already won over the leaders of Qatar. Even the Trump administration has twice certified that Iran is complying with the nuclear agreement and many countries have renewed trade with it since the agreement took effect. Iran is destined to dominate the Middle East.
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The American public needs to better understand why many Iranians mistrust the United States. It was the CIA that overthrew Irans popular leader, Mohammad Mossadegh, in 1953. It was the U.S. that installed Reza Shah Pahlavi, who ruled for 25 years in an increasingly cruel and despotic manner. When he was overthrown in 1979, the Shah fled to the United States. We tried unsuccessfully to bribe some of the revolutions leaders to assure continuing U.S. influence. When Iraq invaded Iran in 1980, we sided with Iraq and eventually furnished it with intelligence and arms. Over 2 million Iranians were killed or wounded in that war but Iran won. By 2003, the U.S. had occupied the two major countries on either side of Iran Afghanistan and Iraq and impliedly threatened Iran as a member of the Axis of Evil. Some Iranians remain convinced that the U.S. continues to have designs on control of Irans internal affairs.
Nevertheless, Irans anti-U.S. actions have been measured. Some Iranian students and leaders have called America the Great Satan and street crowds have chanted Death to America but we should judge the country and its people by their actions, not a few politically inspired words. Iranian students seized the U.S. Embassy in 1979, but, unlike subsequent events in Benghazi and Nairobi, no embassy personnel was killed or seriously injured in Tehran. Although Saddam Husseins Iraq used poison gas against Iranians, Iran refused to do so because such weapons were considered unacceptable under the Koran. There were eight Saudis among the eleven terrorists that brought down the World Trade Centers; no Iranians.
No Iranian has been implicated in any terrorist attack in Western countries except a hard-to-believe allegation that an Iranian-American tried to hire a drug cartel to assassinate the Saudi ambassador. According to U.S. and Israeli intelligence reports, Iran stopped its nuclear weapons program in 2003, when the Supreme Leader of Iran said the use of such weapons violates the Koran. Iran supplied arms and training for Shia militants in Iraq and Lebanon. Americans were killed in those countries, but we put our soldiers at risk when we foolishly invaded the countries in the first place.
Ironically, Iranians mistrust Russia as much or more than they mistrust America. Russia or the Soviet Union has occupied Iran on at least three occasions. Russia now fears Irans growing power. The limited cease-fire in southwest Syria is more about Russia wanting to limit the influence of Hezbollah and Iran over Assad than about peace.
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A common misconception about Iran is that it is not democratic. In fact, both local officials and members of parliament the Majlis are elected. Even the members of the Assembly of Experts that selects the Supreme Leader are elected. The current president, Hassan Rouhani, was elected with 50.9 percent of the vote in 2013 over five opponents largely because of his pledge of rapprochement with the world. He was re-elected in 2017. Iran has too few female candidates and too much influence from Muslim clerics to meet the U.S. ideal of democracy, but in comparison to some of its neighbors, such as Saudi Arabia, it is a bastion of democracy.
Irans 79 million people compared to Saudi Arabias 32 million are generally well-educated, well-led and enterprising. They are a natural ally for America. There are bad actors in Iran, but the most effective way for America to affect that countrys direction in the future is as a friend to its people, not as an enemy. America should attempt to understand Iran by building on the nuclear agreement with that country and working for peace in the region not foolishly aligning itself with the ultimately losing side like Saudi Arabia of an internecine dispute within the Muslim community.
Bickerstaff is co-author of International Election Remedies and retired from teaching law at the University of Texas.
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