Analysis: EXCLUSIVE Rising oil prices buy Iran time in nuclear talks, officials say – Reuters
DUBAI, May 5 (Reuters) - Emboldened by an oil price surge since Russia invaded Ukraine, Iran's clerical rulers are in no rush to revive a 2015 nuclear pact with world powers to ease sanctions on its energy-reliant economy, three officials familiar with Tehran's thinking said.
Last year, the Islamic Republic engaged in indirect talks with the United States as a route to cancelling U.S. sanctions that have gutted revenues and dramatically worsened economic hardships for ordinary people, stirring discontent.
But the talks have been on hold since March, chiefly over Iran's insistence on Washington removing the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Tehran's elite security force, from the U.S. Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) list.
Register
While the ultimate aim is still to resurrect the deal and so have sanctions lifted, the Iranian officials said soaring oil prices had opened a window of opportunity for Iran by increasing revenues, giving the economy months of breathing space.
"Our nuclear programme is advancing as planned and time is on our side," said a senior Iranian official, who declined to be named because he was not authorised to discuss sensitive policy issues with the media.
"If the talks fail it will not be the end of the world," said the official, adding that the fact Iran's economy was not now so reliant on a revival of the deal would provide strong leverage for its negotiators if or when the talks resumed.
Iran's foreign ministry, which handles the nuclear talks, and the U.S. state department did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Iran's finances came under intense pressure in 2018 when then-U.S. President Donald Trump ditched the nuclear pact between Iran and world powers - approved by his predecessor Barack Obama - and reimposed sanctions that sharply cut the oil revenues that fund a sprawling Iranian state apparatus.
Oil exports from Iran, which sits on the world's fourth-largest reserves of crude, plummeted from a peak of 2.8 million barrels per day in 2018 to as low as 200,000 bpd.
Tehran retaliated a year later by gradually violating the deal's nuclear curbs, from rebuilding stockpiles of enriched uranium, refining it to higher fissile purity and installing advanced centrifuges to speed up output - reducing the time it would need to develop a nuclear bomb, if it so chose.
Tehran says it seeks only peaceful nuclear energy.
Although Iran does not divulge exact figures on oil sales, an Iranian oil official said they were currently around 1.5 million bpd with most going to China at a big discount that Iranian authorities have declined to reveal.
Global oil prices remain high, however, with Brent crude reaching $139 a barrel in March, its highest since 2008 after Russia's invasion of Ukraine exacerbated supply concerns.
The Iranian parliament increased the ceiling of oil and condensates exports from 1.2 million bpd at a price of $60 last year to 1.4 million bpd based on $70 a barrel in the state budget, Iranian state media reported in March.
Tehran's refusal to back down from the FTO assignation demand has raised doubt about whether the nuclear impasse can be resolved. President Joe Biden's administration has made it clear that it has no such plans, while also not ruling it out.
On Wednesday, U.S. State Department spokesman Ned Price told reporters that it was unclear whether or not it would be possible to revive the deal and said Washington was now bracing for either outcome. read more
Iranian authorities have publicly shrugged off U.S. pressure, saying Tehran has become adept at working around sanctions as they have been a fact of life for decades.
Jihad Azour, the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) Middle East and Central Asia Department director, said the Iranian economy had adjusted to sanctions over the last few years.
"And the increase in oil prices and an increase in (Iran's) oil production are constituting an additional, I would say, increase in revenues," Azour told Reuters.
However, Henry Rome, Iran analyst at consultancy group Eurasia, said the Islamic Republic is underestimating the value of easing sanctions and overestimating its ability to muddle through longer term.
"Iranian leaders probably consider stronger domestic economic performance, limited U.S. enforcement of oil sanctions and broader Western distraction given the Ukraine war as reasons not to be desperate to secure a deal," Rome said.
"Although, they likely remain open to a deal at the right price."
Despite the recent rise in revenues, sanctions continue to have a major impact on daily life in Iran, meaning that everyone from the business elite to lower-income families face soaring inflation, a sinking currency and rising joblessness.
Clerical rulers may therefore be wary of simmering disenchantment at home, according to a former Iranian government official.
Ultimately, they prefer an end to sanctions, fearing a return of unrest among lower-income Iranians whose periodic protests in recent years have reminded leaders how vulnerable they can be to grassroots anger over economic hardship.
Not enough people are yet feeling the benefits of rising oil revenues, the former government official added.
Iranian analyst Saeed Leylaz said Iran's home-grown economic problems, including mismanagement and corruption that deplete revenue needed for investment, job creation and development, pose a bigger challenge to the establishment than sanctions.
The official inflation rate is around 40% while some people estimate it at over 50%. Almost half of Iran's 82 million population are now below the poverty line. Unofficial estimates suggest unemployment is well above the official rate of 11%.
"All the economic indicators point to worsening economic realities in Iran. To say Iran sits on a tinderbox is no exaggeration," said Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at Middle East Institute.
Prices of basic goods like bread, meat and rice are increasing daily. Iranian media frequently report layoffs and strikes by workers who have not been paid for months, including in government-owned factories.
Owning a home in Tehran is impossible for many. Prices have risen in recent months by around 50% in some areas. The currency has dropped over 70% against the U.S. dollar since 2018.
"Where is this oil revenue going? Why we do not feel any improvement?" said teacher Mohsen Sedighi, a father-of-two in Tehran.
Register
Writing by Parisa Hafezi; Additional reporting by Arshad Mohammed in Washington; Editing by Mike Collett-White and Mark Heinrich
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Link:
Analysis: EXCLUSIVE Rising oil prices buy Iran time in nuclear talks, officials say - Reuters
- Iran's Pezeshkian says Tehran seeks peace, but will not bow to coercion - Reuters - November 7th, 2025 [November 7th, 2025]
- IAEA chief says Iran still capable of building nuclear weapons | Iran International - - November 7th, 2025 [November 7th, 2025]
- Cultural Genocide and the Kurdish Struggle in Iran - Genocide Watch - November 7th, 2025 [November 7th, 2025]
- Iran Fears Gen-Z: Why the Regime Is Ratcheting Up Propaganda - National Council of Resistance of Iran - NCRI - November 7th, 2025 [November 7th, 2025]
- Iran plotted to kill Israeli ambassador to Mexico, US and Israeli officials say - The Times of Israel - November 7th, 2025 [November 7th, 2025]
- Iran planned to kill Israeli envoy to Mexico this year - JNS.org - November 7th, 2025 [November 7th, 2025]
- Iran: Protest in Ahvaz Following Shocking Self-Immolation of 20-Year-Old Ahmad Baldi - National Council of Resistance of Iran - NCRI - November 7th, 2025 [November 7th, 2025]
- Iran says open to negotiation but will not give up nuclear - The Jerusalem Post - November 7th, 2025 [November 7th, 2025]
- Marginalization of the Baloch in Iran - Genocide Watch - November 7th, 2025 [November 7th, 2025]
- Pezeshkian: Iran seeks peace, but wont give up its nuclear and missile programs - The Times of Israel - November 7th, 2025 [November 7th, 2025]
- Jewish Iranian-American sentenced to prison in Iran for visiting Israel 13 years ago - Jewish Telegraphic Agency - November 7th, 2025 [November 7th, 2025]
- Iran News in Brief November 7, 2025 - National Council of Resistance of Iran - NCRI - November 7th, 2025 [November 7th, 2025]
- After its drone success, Iran's next breakout hit could come from the sea - Tehran Times - November 7th, 2025 [November 7th, 2025]
- Surviving 903 Days of Torture and Sexual Assault by Iran-Backed Shia Militias - IranWire - November 7th, 2025 [November 7th, 2025]
- Iran Arrests Baha'is in Wave of Raids Across Multiple Provinces - IranWire - November 7th, 2025 [November 7th, 2025]
- Trump says Iran has asked about lifting US sanctions - - November 7th, 2025 [November 7th, 2025]
- Iran unveils monument to ancient victory in show of post-war defiance - RFI - November 7th, 2025 [November 7th, 2025]
- Iran condemns Israels breach of truce and strikes on Lebanon - Tehran Times - November 7th, 2025 [November 7th, 2025]
- Iran: US Citizen Hekmati, 70, Sentenced to 4 Years Over Trip to Israel in 2012 - EA WorldView - November 7th, 2025 [November 7th, 2025]
- Iran submits three films to 1st Open Eurasian Film Award Diamond Butterfly - Tehran Times - November 7th, 2025 [November 7th, 2025]
- IDF reveals Hamas ties to Iran, UNRWA, Al Jazeera, stolen aid in collection of documents - The Jerusalem Post - November 7th, 2025 [November 7th, 2025]
- Iran unveils monument to ancient victory in show of post-war defiance - Homenewshere.com - November 7th, 2025 [November 7th, 2025]
- Iranian-American poets son arrested over Detroit terror plot | Iran International - - November 7th, 2025 [November 7th, 2025]
- Average age of first-time mothers in Iran continues to rise - Tehran Times - November 7th, 2025 [November 7th, 2025]
- Iran planned to assassinate Israel's ambassador to Mexico, but the attempt was thwarted - US official - - November 7th, 2025 [November 7th, 2025]
- Between Mediation and Advocacy: Omans Shifting Role in Gulf-Iran Relations - orfonline.org - November 7th, 2025 [November 7th, 2025]
- Not if they say we will bomb you: Pezeshkian says Iran seeks peace, but wont abandon nuke programme - WION - November 7th, 2025 [November 7th, 2025]
- Soroka to receive over $300 million to rebuild after Iran missile strike in June - The Times of Israel - November 3rd, 2025 [November 3rd, 2025]
- Iran: Human rights investigators alarmed by surge in repression and spike in executions following Israeli airstrikes - UN News - November 3rd, 2025 [November 3rd, 2025]
- Iran says wont dismantle missiles, ready for war with Israel - JNS.org - November 3rd, 2025 [November 3rd, 2025]
- Irans Ruling Class Turns on Itself as Crises Deepen - National Council of Resistance of Iran - NCRI - November 3rd, 2025 [November 3rd, 2025]
- Is this the end of Iran's Islamic Revolution? - The Jerusalem Post - November 3rd, 2025 [November 3rd, 2025]
- Dead Sea hotel worker charged with spying for Iran; was asked for intel on Ben Gvir - The Times of Israel - November 3rd, 2025 [November 3rd, 2025]
- Iran's Bitcoin Mining Industry: Inside the World's Fifth-Largest Operation Amid Sanctions and Energy Crisis - Brave New Coin - November 3rd, 2025 [November 3rd, 2025]
- Russian FM says no limits for military cooperation with Iran - Tehran Times - November 3rd, 2025 [November 3rd, 2025]
- Araghchi says Israel duped US on Iran threat, urges Trump to reverse course - - November 3rd, 2025 [November 3rd, 2025]
- Former Israeli Ambassador Warns That Iran, Russia, and China Are Expanding Terror Sleeper Cells Across the US - VINnews - November 3rd, 2025 [November 3rd, 2025]
- In the past 48 hours, the heinous lie that the unlawful Israeli and U.S. bombing of Iran was motivated by an imminent nuclear threat has been... - November 3rd, 2025 [November 3rd, 2025]
- Iran To Build 8 New Nuclear Plants With Russias Help - Eurasia Review - November 3rd, 2025 [November 3rd, 2025]
- At the heart of regional architecture, Iran is inevitable - Tehran Times - November 3rd, 2025 [November 3rd, 2025]
- Iran promises to rebuild bombed nuclear sites "with greater strength" after US strikes - Euromaidan Press - November 3rd, 2025 [November 3rd, 2025]
- We will not be set back: Pezeshkian vows Iran will rebuild its nuclear sites stronger than before - WION - November 3rd, 2025 [November 3rd, 2025]
- Iran banking on Iraq vote to retain regional influence - Citizen Tribune - November 3rd, 2025 [November 3rd, 2025]
- Iran vows to rebuild nuclear facilities 'with greater strength' after US strikes - Trkiye Today - November 3rd, 2025 [November 3rd, 2025]
- UK Parliament Conference Calls For Firm Policy On Iran Amid Surge In Executions OpEd - Eurasia Review - November 3rd, 2025 [November 3rd, 2025]
- Regional Museum of Southeastern Iran, a mirror of Iranian culture, civilization - Tehran Times - November 3rd, 2025 [November 3rd, 2025]
- Charges filed against Tiberias man suspected of spying for Iran - The Times of Israel - November 3rd, 2025 [November 3rd, 2025]
- Repression in Iran worsened after 12-day war with Israel in June, UN probe finds - The Times of Israel - October 31st, 2025 [October 31st, 2025]
- As Renewal of Iran-Israel War Looms, What Lessons Can Be Learned from June? - Middle East Council on Global Affairs - October 31st, 2025 [October 31st, 2025]
- Mediator Egypt urges end to impasse over Iran nuclear inspections - - October 31st, 2025 [October 31st, 2025]
- Faith, knowledge, and steadfastness: Ayatollah Khameneis vision for an independent Iran - Tehran Times - October 31st, 2025 [October 31st, 2025]
- Two men sentenced to 25 years over Iran-backed plot to kill dissident - Reuters - October 31st, 2025 [October 31st, 2025]
- Socioeconomic disparities in urological cancers in iran: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease study 2019 - BMC Public Health - October 31st, 2025 [October 31st, 2025]
- UN accuses Iran of widespread arrests, abuses after 12-day war with Israel - France 24 - October 31st, 2025 [October 31st, 2025]
- Iran says UN watchdog should not express 'unfounded opinions' on nuclear programme - Reuters - October 31st, 2025 [October 31st, 2025]
- Iran participating in 28th Algiers International Book Fair - Tehran Times - October 31st, 2025 [October 31st, 2025]
- Hassan Rouhani wants to be the next Supreme Leader. Iran's hardliners won't have it - thenationalnews.com - October 31st, 2025 [October 31st, 2025]
- Egypt mediates talks between Iran and the IAEA on nuclear program cooperation - Latest news from Azerbaijan - October 31st, 2025 [October 31st, 2025]
- Artist Sheida Soleimani renders story of her parents' escape from Iran - The Business Journals - October 31st, 2025 [October 31st, 2025]
- Niger Joins Haiti, Russia, Iran, and Iraq in the US List of Do Not Travel Urgent Warnings The Hidden Dangers That Could Put Your Life at Risk! -... - October 31st, 2025 [October 31st, 2025]
- IDF, Mossad on alert for Oct. 7-style threat from Iran-backed militias in Iraq - Yahoo - October 31st, 2025 [October 31st, 2025]
- Egypt, Iran, IAEA discuss steps toward peaceful resolution of Tehrans nuclear issue - Trkiye Today - October 31st, 2025 [October 31st, 2025]
- Iran, Russia and the New Zealand insurer that kept their sanctioned oil flowing - Reuters - October 28th, 2025 [October 28th, 2025]
- Iran declares bankruptcy of major bank as country grapples with restored sanctions - The Times of Israel - October 28th, 2025 [October 28th, 2025]
- CSIS Satellite Imagery Analysis Reveals Possible Signs of Renewed Nuclear Activity in Iran - CSIS | Center for Strategic and International Studies - October 28th, 2025 [October 28th, 2025]
- British woman's 'spirits were low' on phone call from Iran prison - BBC - October 28th, 2025 [October 28th, 2025]
- Why is the UN directing tourists into Iran? - The Telegraph - October 28th, 2025 [October 28th, 2025]
- Iran News in Brief October 28, 2025 - National Council of Resistance of Iran - NCRI - October 28th, 2025 [October 28th, 2025]
- Russia says no rift with Iran as row over Moscow role heats up in Tehran | Iran International - - October 28th, 2025 [October 28th, 2025]
- Irans Education System Paralyzed as Regime Diverts Resources to Nuclear and Military Programs - National Council of Resistance of Iran - NCRI - October 28th, 2025 [October 28th, 2025]
- Irans Rappers: Voices of Dissent, Targets of the State - Center for Human Rights in Iran - October 28th, 2025 [October 28th, 2025]
- Satellite images reveal possible renewed nuclear activity in Iran - think tank - - October 28th, 2025 [October 28th, 2025]
- From FATF to Bank Meltdown, Irans Power Factions Clash on Every Front - National Council of Resistance of Iran - NCRI - October 28th, 2025 [October 28th, 2025]
- Political Prisoner on Fifth Day of Hunger Strike in Iran - IranWire - October 28th, 2025 [October 28th, 2025]
- Iran-UAE dispute over three islands in Gulf heats up - The New Arab - October 28th, 2025 [October 28th, 2025]
- Family of British couple detained in Iran issue update after recent court hearing had not gone well - The Independent - October 28th, 2025 [October 28th, 2025]
- Iran Establishes Itself As A Missile Superpower Through Advanced Precision And Hypersonic Technology - Iran - Iran Front Page - IFP News - October 28th, 2025 [October 28th, 2025]
- Iran stresses key role of Islamic unity in face of foreign threats - taghribnews.com - October 28th, 2025 [October 28th, 2025]
- Iran criticizes UN for failure to act on Israeli-imposed war on Tehran - taghribnews.com - October 28th, 2025 [October 28th, 2025]
- As '80s Iran convulsed, L.A. immigrants honed new sounds. This album lauds them - with warnings for today - Los Angeles Times - October 28th, 2025 [October 28th, 2025]