Mediaboss Marketing

If you listened closely this week,behind theterrifyingclamor of Covid-19 sweeping across the planet, you mightve heard the sound of war nearly breaking out again between the United States and Iran.

OnWednesday, thebirthday ofassassinatedIranian Gen. Qassim Suleimani, a barrage of rocketsslammed into the Camp Taji airbase north of the Iraqi capital of Baghdad. The attack killed two Americans and a Briton, while wounding 14 others. A day later, U.S. forces in Iraq hit back, carrying outairstrikesagainst Kataib Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed Iraqi militia that it blamed for the attack. It isa safe betthat the violence between the United States and Iran will not stop there. Already on Saturday morning, reports emerged of another attack at the same base that wounded three more U.S. service members.

Despite a terrifying pandemic that has overwhelmed entire cities in Iran and now looms over the United States, the crisis between the two countries that began when the Trump administration exited the 2015 Iran nuclear deal shows no sign of abating. The possibility of war in the midst of a global public health crisis is, to put it mildly, outrageous. Iraniansare believed to beamong the most numerous victims ofthe Covid-19pandemic. Their governments decision to risk a conflict at this moment is both mystifying and galling.

ButIrans grim determination to hit back against the United States regardless of its peoples suffering does illustrate an important point. Itputs paid toa majorTrump administration justification for the controversial assassination of Suleimani in a January drone: deterrence.

In the immediate aftermath of Suleimanis killing, Secretary of State Mike PompeotoldCBSs Face the Nation that the entire strategy has been one of deterrence, claiming that the drone strike against the general had sent a decisive message to the Iranian governmentthat would force it to refrain from future acts of aggression.

But if deterrence really was the strategy, its been a resounding failure. Even before this weeks deadly attacks, rockets have continued to periodically rain down on U.S. bases in Iraq, as well as the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad. Iran has indicated inpublic statementsthat it plans to take what it views as a full revenge for the killing of Quds Force chief Suleimani at a time of its choosing.The deadly attack on Camp Taji suggests that they are not bluffing.

There is historicalcontext to consider as well. Since the 1979 revolution that brought the current government to power, Iran has shown that it is willing to endure a tremendous amount of punishment to achieve its strategic goals.

During Irans war with Iraq in the 1980s, then-Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini continued to battle Saddam Hussein long after his attempted invasion of Iran had been repelled. Hundreds of thousands on both sides were killed over years of grueling World War I-style trench warfare, all in dogged pursuit ofKhomeinisgoal of forcing the Baathists from power and placing an Iran-friendly government in Baghdad. (The Iranians would have to wait until 2003, when the United States graciously accomplished this goal for them.)

Today, even amid a cataclysmic public health crisis that is said to have killed hundreds of Iranians, including several top political and military leaders, the Iranians show no signof relenting on what they view as their primary geopolitical interests. Their continued attacks on American targets in Iraq suggest that they are pushing forwardtoward their main strategic goal: ejecting American troops from Iraq.

In anarticleabout the recent violence, Afshon Ostovar, a professor at the Naval Postgraduate School and author of Vanguard of the Imam: Religion, Politics, and Irans Revolutionary Guards, wrote that the Iranian-backed militia attack on Camp Taji and the U.S. military response fits right into the aims of Kataib Hezbollah and Iran.The attacks by U.S. aircraft helpincreasepublic anger in Iraq against U.S. military activity there andlaythe groundwork for a broaderconfrontation thatmightforce the United States to leave for good.

Iran and its Iraqi allies have more Iraqi deaths and destruction to fuel their effort to expel U.S. forces from the country, Ostovar wrote. They also have cause to respond further, if they wish, in order bait the U.S. into additional aggressive acts on Iraqi soil. Yet, doing so would compel the U.S. to respond in kind, and the cycle of escalation would continue toward certain conflict.

Despite its overwhelming military advantages, that would be a conflict the United States would be poorly positioned to win. The U.S. public is already exhausted and disillusioned with years ofseemingly pointlessfightingin the Middle East. Most Americans arealso anxious over the impact of Covid-19 at home and unlikely to be thrilled with the idea of diverting more resources to fighting another war with no clear end goals.

Unlike Iran, where the government wields authoritarian and sometimes brutal power to quell public dissent, the U.S. is constrainedin its capacity to ignore the wishes of its own people.Thats why U.S. officialslike Pompeo have insistently portrayed Suleimanis killing as a way of tamping down violence in Iraq rather than escalating it. Its a disingenuous claim that is getting harder to defend.

The proxy war between theUnited States and Iranlooks certain to continue. It seems that noteven a global health crisiscan stop it.One thing is clear however: Ordinary Iranians, Iraqis, and Americans can ill-affordthis kind of violence right now.

Even before the devastation wrought by Covid-19, Iran was struggling to cope with the consequences of American sanctions. It is in even worse shape today. The United States under Donald Trump, meanwhile, seems ill-prepared for the social and economic upheaval that will accompany a major pandemic on U.S. soil.It doesnt seem like much to ask that U.S. and Iranian leaders postpone their score-settling until the pandemic threat that facesus allcan be brought under control. But eventhatmodest hopemay be out of reach.

See the original post here:
Amid Coronavirus Chaos, U.S. and Iran Edge Closer to War - The Intercept