Wonkblog: Why putting off immigration reform wont make it any easier
President Obama's decision to delay executive action onimmigration reformuntil afterthe midtermsin November might notsave the Democratic party its majority in the Senate, or lead to thesort of inclusive and robust overhaulthe president promised earlier this summer.
The fear among immigration advocates is that reform has taken a back seat.Its just really, really ridiculous to see that theyre basically once again throwing the Latino community under the bus when it comes to politics, Erika Andiola, co-director of the Dream Action Coalition, told The Washington Post on Saturday. "Why are we being thrown under the bus just to keep the Senate, when they cant even prove that its going to hurt the Senate?"
A number of immigration legal experts pointed out that a backlash against the president for acting on immigration is likely to come regardless of his timing, whether heacts now, or sometime between November and the end of the year, as he has now reportedly promised. Republicans in several highly contested races are already running campaignsthat dwell on Obama's intention to act unilaterally on the issue of immigration.
"Make no mistake: President Obama plans to grant amnesty; it's just that he will cynically wait until after the election so as not to harm Senate Democrats like Jeanne Shaheen," New Hampshire senate candidate Scott Brown said in a statement. Brown now trailsDemocratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen by only two percentage points, after polls in July suggesteda gap of more than 12 points.
"There's some sentiment that executive action on immigration reform might not actually affect the elections, because the GOP are using his intent as a talking point already," saidMarielena Hincapi, the executive director of the National Immigration Law Center.
If Republicans manage to control both the House and the Senate come Novemberthe odds are currently stacked, if ever so slightly, in their favorin the Senateit couldbecome even more difficult for lawmakers to push through sweeping legislative reform, or for the president to act unilaterally without even more serious political backlash.
For one,the GOP-controlled chambers might work to limit executive power. "A Republican-controlled Senate could mean they will actually try to push through legislation and bills to challenge the president's authority," Hincapi said, suggesting that GOP lawmakers could push for laws that make it more difficult for the president to enact sweeping reform without the support of the Senate or the House.
While that scenario is unlikely to unfold, the GOP could still tie the president's hands a bit, according to Hincapi. "They could, for instance, push to prove that funding simply isn't there for the reforms he announces," she said.
Republicans could also work to draft their own immigration reform proposal, which mighttempt Obama to further postponeunilateral action."If they win both the Senate and the House, it's very likely they will at least try tomake an attempt at immigration reform," Hincapi said. "Theconcern is whether the White House will decide to delay any executive authority reforms in order to wait and see what the Senate and House do in terms of legislation."
Obamais unlikely to sign any legislation proposed by a Republican-controlled House and Senate. ButHincapi suggests that the longer the president waits, the weaker the reform is likely to be.
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Wonkblog: Why putting off immigration reform wont make it any easier
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