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Last week, John Boehner made a rather stunning turnaround on whether the House will be passing some sort of immigration reform this year. To be snide: First he was for it, before he was against it. What happened in between (one assumes) is that he tried to sell the idea to his own caucus. Who (from all appearances) wasn't buying it. While this might not be the end for immigration reform this year, the idea certainly can now be said to be on life support, at best. What this means for the future of immigration reform is anybody's guess at this point, so I thought I'd map out a few scenarios which assume immigration reform is not going to pass before this year's elections.

Republicans -- especially those in the House fighting to keep their jobs this year -- are leery of taking on immigration reform right now. The reason they've got a big advantage in the midterm elections, they think, is because their signature issue of hating Obamacare is going to be good enough to propel them to victory in the Senate. So why delve into a subject that is contentious and divisive within the Republican Party in the meantime? If you buy into the assumptions made, this reasoning makes perfect sense for House Republicans. The only problem with it is that there's always a reason not to do something this big, and this might be the only chance Republicans get before the 2016 presidential election to pass immigration reform.

Some Republican strategists are hinting that maybe -- just maybe, mind you -- Republicans will take up the issue right after the November vote. In the "lame duck" period of Congress (between the election and January, when the new Congress is sworn in), House Republicans will magically get their act together, produce legislation, and then forge some sort of compromise with the Senate so a bill can reach President Obama's desk. That's a lot to ask for in a very short period of time, of course. But what Republicans don't admit (or possibly haven't thought out yet) is that this scenario only really works if Republicans lose big in the upcoming election. If Republicans win big, why would the outgoing Congress pass something when the incoming Congress will be more heavily Republican? If the status quo holds (if neither Republicans nor Democrats win big), then Republicans will be disappointed at not winning big (which they are all currently telling themselves is inevitable) and won't have much stomach for taking on such a contentious issue. They'll be demoralized, especially if Democrats hold the Senate, and they won't be enthusiastically launching any big reform efforts. But if Republicans lose big, then they will reason that any reform efforts passed before the next Congress is sworn in will be "more Republican" -- most especially if they have lost control of the House. So they'll have a big motivator to passing something quickly, before the next Congress has a chance to act.

Looking a bit further into the future than the fantasy of the lame duck Congress quickly passing sweeping reform measures, there are essentially three or four scenarios worth considering. Sadly, for those who support immigration reform, the opportunities will shrink to pass real reform in 2015 or 2016 in all but one of these. As mentioned, it's always easy for Congress to find reasons not to act. Let's take a look at them one by one, from the most optimistic (for Democrats) to the most pessimistic (for the chances of real reform passing).

Democrats win big, take House

This rosy-tinted scenario begins with an upset at the polls. Democrats not only hold onto the Senate, but also take control of the House. Next January, the first order of business will be taking up immigration reform. Because it will be a brand-new Congress, the Senate bill which previously passed will expire. So the Senate could either pass the same bill or tweak it slightly. The House would pass their own version, and a compromise would quickly be reached. To get through the Senate again, Democrats will need a filibuster-proof 60 votes, which likely will mean some Republicans will have some influence in the final bill. So it won't be solely Democratic ideas which make it into the final legislation. But it will guarantee that whatever passes is real reform -- defined as "reform which doesn't create an impossible path for undocumented immigrants to follow." Obama, of course, will happily sign the bill into law.

Status quo wins, Congress remains split

In this scenario, the Republicans hold onto the House and the Democrats hold onto the Senate. Depending on who increases their margin in both houses, perhaps some sort of lame-duck compromise is reached, but this would be a long shot. What will likely happen is that the issue will be waiting for the new Congress in January. I should note that this scenario also works (in reverse) in the unlikely event that the Democrats take the House while the Republicans take the Senate (the longest of longshot outcomes this November).

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The Future Of Immigration Reform | Chris Weigant