Immigration problems our president will face in 2021 | TheHill – The Hill
Whoever is president the day after inauguration 2021 is going to face serious immigration issues, and he may not be able to get the funds needed to deal with them.
How large is the undocumented alien population, really?
The president should establish a more reliable method for estimating the size of the undocumented alien population.
Pew Research Center's(PEW) estimates of the undocumented alien population are highly respected even the Congressional Research Servicerelies on them. PEW uses aprocess known as the residual method, an approach also used by theMigration Policy Institute(MPI), and the Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR).
The problem is it doesnt produce reliable results.
The residual method uses data from the Census Bureaus annualAmerican Community Surveys(ACS) to estimate the number of foreign born people in the United States. It subtracts an estimate of the number of lawful immigrants in the United States from the foreign-born population estimate, and the remainder is the estimate of the undocumented alien population.
The ACS surveys are taken from 1 percent of the population, which isnt a statistically significant percentage. Moreover, it asks about a persons race, place of birth, whether he is a citizen of the United States, and other questions that undocumented aliens might not be willing to answer truthfully.
A more reliable method for estimating the size of the undocumented alien population is needed for enforcement purposes and to estimate how many undocumented aliens would participate in a legalization program.
There is also a challenge in trying to track the performance of border security measures, specifically how many aliens successfully cross the border illegally each year. Section 1092 of theFiscal 2017 National Defense Authorization Act requires the DHS Secretary to make an annual Border Security Metrics Report to Congress on the effectiveness of methods being used to secure the border between ports of entry.
The report must include estimates of the number of undetected unlawful entries; Undetected unlawful entries are illegal border crossings between ports of entry that are not directly or indirectly observed or detected by the Border Patrol.
The problem is that DHS cant count crossings that are not observed or detected.
The solution may be to install a surveillance system that would detect every crossing. This hasnt worked in the past, but that doesnt mean that it shouldnt be tried again with modern surveillance technology.
Immigration court backlog crisis
The backlog was only542,411 casesin January 2017, when PresidentDonald TrumpDonald John TrumpSenate panel seeks documents in probe of DHS whistleblower complaint Susan Collins: Trump 'should have been straightforward' on COVID-19 Longtime House parliamentarian to step down MOREtook office. As of the end of July 2020, it was up to1,233,307cases.
The average wait for a hearing is 777 days, which makes meaningful interior enforcement impossible, and it is more difficult to secure the border when undocumented aliens know that they arent likely to be deported once they have reached the interior of the country.
Due process also is affected. The need to hire more judges has made it necessary to lower qualification standards. The immigration judgevacancy announcementdoesnt even ask for immigration law experience.
The immigration court is adjudicating more cases, however. In fiscal 2019, it completed 275,552 cases, the second-highest completion total in its history but at that rate, it would still take four and a half years to clear the backlog, even if no new cases were put on the courts docket.
Comprehensive immigration reform
It has been more than 30 years since the passage of the last comprehensive immigration reform bill with a legalization program, the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986 (IRCA).
IRCA was supposed to establish an interior enforcement program to eliminate the job magnet that draws undocumented aliens to the United States. It was thought that this could be accomplished by establishing sanctions to punish employers that hire immigrants who are not authorized to work in the United States.
Approximately 2.7 million aliens were legalized, but the employer sanctions program was only implemented on a token basis. By the beginning of 1997, the 2.7 million legalized aliens had beenreplaced entirely by a new group of undocumented aliens.
We still do not have a large scale, nationwide employer sanctions program.
We need to fund a program to make it more difficult for American employers to exploit undocumented foreign workers. Thats what draws unscrupulous employers to unauthorized workers. The Department of Labor (DOL) could address this problem purely as a labor issue by enforcing federal labor laws that were enacted to curb such abuses.
With additional funding, DOL could mount a large-scale, nationwide campaign to stop the exploitation of employees in industries known to hire large numbers of undocumented immigrants.
Funding
The country is having serious financial difficulties that may make it difficult for the president to get funding to deal with these problems.
According to a Sept. 2, 2020, report from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the federal budget deficit for 2020 has reached $3.3 trillion, which is more than triple the shortfall recorded in 2019. CBO attributes this mainly to the economic disruption caused by the 2020 coronavirus pandemic and the enactment of legislation in response to it.
CBO expects the Federal debt held by the public to reach 98 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020.
Maybe the best we can hope for is that the president wont make the immigration problems any worse than they already are.
Nolan Rappaportwas detailed to the House Judiciary Committee as an executive branch immigration law expert for three years. He subsequently served as an immigration counsel for the Subcommittee on Immigration, Border Security and Claims for four years. Prior to working on the Judiciary Committee, he wrote decisions for the Board of Immigration Appeals for 20 years. Follow him on Twitter@NolanR1or athttps://nolanrappaport.blogspot.com.
Read more:
Immigration problems our president will face in 2021 | TheHill - The Hill
- CER Podcast: Unpacking Europe: Immigration reform in the UK - Centre for European Reform - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- West Hollywood Chamber of Commerce Condemns ICE Raid on Local Business, Calls for Humane Immigration Reform - wehotimes.com - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- A Path Forward on Immigration Reform That Strengthens America - GV Wire - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Weighing in on Trump's promise of immigration reform - Hortidaily - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- Immigration Reform for Meat Processors and More Ag Input for MAHA - AG INFORMATION NETWORK OF THE WEST - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- Changes Proposed by the Governments White Paper on Immigration Reform | White Paper - Freeths - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- Border congressman: Arresting criminal aliens is the first step in immigration reform - Dallas News - June 22nd, 2025 [June 22nd, 2025]
- Jose Antonio Vargas on What We Get Wrong About Immigration Reform - American Civil Liberties Union - June 20th, 2025 [June 20th, 2025]
- This situation is not worthy of a great nation: Los Angeles archbishop calls for immigration reform - CatholicVote org - June 20th, 2025 [June 20th, 2025]
- Arnold Schwarzenegger Blames Both Parties, Lack Of Immigration Reform For ICE Raids - The Daily Wire - June 20th, 2025 [June 20th, 2025]
- Not going to stop: Immigration Reform group meets in Fresno - yourcentralvalley.com - June 1st, 2025 [June 1st, 2025]
- State Representative Kasey Carpenter on Immigration Reform - Georgia Public Broadcasting - May 30th, 2025 [May 30th, 2025]
- Trump can go down in history by pushing immigration reform | Opinion - Fresno Bee - May 30th, 2025 [May 30th, 2025]
- Bishop urges government to reconsider immigration reform - The Tablet - May 30th, 2025 [May 30th, 2025]
- Whatever Happened to Bipartisan Immigration Reform? - Newsweek - May 19th, 2025 [May 19th, 2025]
- UK Immigration Reform 2025: Key Changes and Business Impacts - Watson Farley & Williams - May 19th, 2025 [May 19th, 2025]
- Inaugural Mass of Pope Leo XIV Raises Hopes for Immigration Reform in Arizona - Hoodline - May 19th, 2025 [May 19th, 2025]
- UK: Government publishes proposal for major immigration reform Work ban forcing some female asylum applicants into sex work New evidence of violence... - May 19th, 2025 [May 19th, 2025]
- UK Immigration Reform deeper restrictions on the horizon - Charles Russell Speechlys - May 19th, 2025 [May 19th, 2025]
- Argentina's immigration reform to be discussed at Mercosur meeting - H2FOZ - May 19th, 2025 [May 19th, 2025]
- Nigel Farage's anti-immigration Reform UK party is riding high in the polls - IslanderNews.com - May 19th, 2025 [May 19th, 2025]
- Thailand Immigration Reform Planned as Bangkok Proposes New Interior Ministry Department to Reshape Policy for Travelers, Expats, Refugees - Travel... - May 5th, 2025 [May 5th, 2025]
- Critical Point: Industry Works Toward Immigration Reform - Thoroughbred Daily News - May 5th, 2025 [May 5th, 2025]
- Horse Racing Industry Urges Action On Immigration Reform To Address Labor Shortages - Paulick Report - May 5th, 2025 [May 5th, 2025]
- We Needed a New President, Not Comprehensive Immigration Reform - The Daily Signal - May 5th, 2025 [May 5th, 2025]
- May Day marches across U.S. demand workers rights, immigration reform, and economic justice - AP News - May 5th, 2025 [May 5th, 2025]
- Canada Takes Bold Steps Towards Immigration Reform By Setting New Caps For Permanent And Temporary Residents And Introducing Changes That Will... - May 5th, 2025 [May 5th, 2025]
- Failure on immigration reform comes at a high cost for Texas, San Antonio - San Antonio Express-News - March 25th, 2025 [March 25th, 2025]
- DHS closes office that advocated for migrants calling it a roadblock to immigration reform - The Independent - March 25th, 2025 [March 25th, 2025]
- Construction industry braces for higher costs due to tariffs and immigration reform - KGW.com - March 20th, 2025 [March 20th, 2025]
- Democrats aim to reverse Floridas illegal immigration reform with new legislation - WFLA - March 20th, 2025 [March 20th, 2025]
- Callously deporting longtime U.S. residents is yet another failure of Trumps immigration reform efforts | Editorial - The Philadelphia Inquirer - March 20th, 2025 [March 20th, 2025]
- Who Is Jeanette Vizguerra? ICE Arrests Immigration Reform Activist And Undocumented Mother - Times Now - March 20th, 2025 [March 20th, 2025]
- Demonstrators gather in south Omaha to protest immigration reform - Nebraska News Service - March 11th, 2025 [March 11th, 2025]
- Catholic Bishops Along the US-Mexico Border Advocate for Immigration Reform - Mwakilishi.com - March 3rd, 2025 [March 3rd, 2025]
- Letter: Comprehensive immigration reform is needed - Quad-City Times - March 1st, 2025 [March 1st, 2025]
- Media Advisory: FAIR, Sheriffs and State Legislators to Hold D.C. Press Conference Urging Border Security Funding and Immigration Reform - PR Newswire - February 25th, 2025 [February 25th, 2025]
- Letter to the Editor: Immigration Reform Would Benefit Wisconsin Farmers - Exponent - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- OK, No Immigration Reform (But Lets Use The Laws Already On The Books) - A Groundbreaking Examination of U.S. Immigration Policies by Veteran Lawyer... - February 20th, 2025 [February 20th, 2025]
- Legislators Analise Ortiz, Katherine Maranda and Casar Aguilar call for immigration reform - Yahoo - February 11th, 2025 [February 11th, 2025]
- Its well past time for U.S. immigration reform (again) - Angelus News - February 11th, 2025 [February 11th, 2025]
- Protestors take to the streets to call for immigration reform in Los Angeles - uscannenbergmedia.com - February 9th, 2025 [February 9th, 2025]
- Archbishop Prez on the Need for Balanced, Compassionate, and Comprehensive Immigration Reform - CatholicPhilly.com - February 1st, 2025 [February 1st, 2025]
- Bishops across US defend migrants, calling for immigration reform in justice and mercy - Our Sunday Visitor - February 1st, 2025 [February 1st, 2025]
- Project Red Card aims to ease concerns over Trump immigration reform in Latino communities - WCNC.com - February 1st, 2025 [February 1st, 2025]
- Power to the people: governor, legislators want voters to weigh in on immigration reform - Central Florida Public Media (previously WMFE) - February 1st, 2025 [February 1st, 2025]
- Florida lawmakers file extensive immigration reform bills ahead of special session - WJXT News4JAX - February 1st, 2025 [February 1st, 2025]
- Executive Orders Are a Good Start, But We Need Lasting Immigration Reform. Here's Where to Start | Opinion - Newsweek - February 1st, 2025 [February 1st, 2025]
- Project Red Cards aims to ease concerns over Trump immigration reform in Latino communities - WCNC.com - February 1st, 2025 [February 1st, 2025]
- David Reel: Addressing border security and immigration reform - Broad + Liberty - February 1st, 2025 [February 1st, 2025]
- NMPF hoping for caution on immigration reform - Agri-News - February 1st, 2025 [February 1st, 2025]
- DOJ Letter Bolsters Drummond Appeal of Injunction Against State Immigration Reform Law - Ponca City Now - February 1st, 2025 [February 1st, 2025]
- Emotional Selena Gomez breaks down in tears, vows to support immigration reform amid deportation policies - AS USA - February 1st, 2025 [February 1st, 2025]
- 'El Norte' Director Says His 1983 Sundance Classic on Immigration Reform Is 'More Relevant Today' | Video - TheWrap - February 1st, 2025 [February 1st, 2025]
- Chicago mayor reiterates opposition to incoming Trump admin's immigration reform - Fox News - January 19th, 2025 [January 19th, 2025]
- Mann eager for immigration reform tied to border security, deportation, work permits - Kansas Reflector - January 19th, 2025 [January 19th, 2025]
- Rockford groups advocate for immigration reform ahead of Trump Administration - WREX.com - January 19th, 2025 [January 19th, 2025]
- Peoples March brings hundreds to Center City calling for abortion rights, immigration reform, and more - Billy Penn - January 19th, 2025 [January 19th, 2025]
- Jesuit Conference Office of Justice and Ecology Calls for Just and Humane Immigration Reform - Jesuits.org - January 19th, 2025 [January 19th, 2025]
- Idaho Sheriffs' Association calls for immigration reform and enforcement action - Idaho News - January 19th, 2025 [January 19th, 2025]
- Rep. Adam Gray looking forward to working with Trump on immigration reform - KTXL FOX 40 Sacramento - January 19th, 2025 [January 19th, 2025]
- Changing minds on immigration reform means changing voters priorities, not just their positions - LSE - January 19th, 2025 [January 19th, 2025]
- USCCB issues Catholic Elements of Immigration Reform - Diocese of Raleigh - January 19th, 2025 [January 19th, 2025]
- NWRA commentary: Comprehensive immigration reform could be legacy defining moment for the second Trump administration - Waste Today Magazine - January 6th, 2025 [January 6th, 2025]
- An Immigration Reform Agenda for the 119th Congress - Federation for American Immigration Reform - December 25th, 2024 [December 25th, 2024]
- Immigration reform must end funding of states with sanctuary cities - Waterbury Republican American - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- YORK: Written off for dead, immigration reform could still live - The Albany Herald - December 22nd, 2024 [December 22nd, 2024]
- Floridas Impressive Effort to Stop Illegal Immigration Still Has One Item to Fix - Federation for American Immigration Reform - December 16th, 2024 [December 16th, 2024]
- Letter to the Editor | Trump's promised immigration reform won't happen - The Daily News - December 10th, 2024 [December 10th, 2024]
- Trump makes picks that he thinks will help his immigration reform plans - KENS5.com - December 10th, 2024 [December 10th, 2024]
- Hirono co-introduces immigration reform bill - Spectrum News - December 5th, 2024 [December 5th, 2024]
- OPINION: Beyond walls and raids: A case for humane immigration reform - The Nevada Independent - December 5th, 2024 [December 5th, 2024]
- OPINIONS: Redefining the American Dream: Why Immigration Reform Cant Wait - The Proxy Report - December 5th, 2024 [December 5th, 2024]
- With control of White House and Congress, will Republicans pass immigration reform, repeal Obamacare? - Northeastern University - November 21st, 2024 [November 21st, 2024]
- ImmigrationProf Blog: Immigration Article of the Day: What Congress Needs to Break the Immigration Reform Stalemate by Maryam Stevenson - Law... - November 21st, 2024 [November 21st, 2024]
- US Catholic Bishops Call for Immigration Reform Emphasizing Fairness and Humanity - Mwakilishi.com - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- Urgent immigration reform needed to protect migrant workers in the care sector, Work Rights Centre says - Electronic Immigration Network - November 14th, 2024 [November 14th, 2024]
- Tariffs, tax cuts, and immigration reform: Trump's blueprint for second term - The Business Standard - November 14th, 2024 [November 14th, 2024]
- With Immigration Reform on the Table, Advocates Put Human Face on Califs Migrant Farmworkers - San Diego Voice and Viewpoint - November 5th, 2024 [November 5th, 2024]
- WHAT DID THE CANDIDATES SAY: Immigration reform on the City College Community Agenda, November 2024 - City Times - November 5th, 2024 [November 5th, 2024]