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This is a story of migration. No, not the illegal sort at our southern border, though that will feature prominently. The migration Im talking about is that of voters who were once solidly in the Democratic camp to the party of Donald Trump.

This follows a drawn-out history of defection and disaffection, beginning when President Lyndon Baines Johnson signed the Civil Rights Act in 1964.

This inflection point warrants reflection. At the time, journalist Bill Moyers was a special assistant to LBJ. Moyers repeated his boss quip after the signing: I think we may have lost the South for your lifetime and mine. Variations of this quotation became lore in the halls of politics. Whether the president was utterly serious or only facetious, his speculation proved out. Until the 1960s, the South had been known for its Democratic lean. In fact, there was a name: Dixiecrats.

But by the time President Richard Nixons political strategist Kevin Phillips spoke to The New York Times in 1970, the racist Southern strategy of the GOP was paying off.

From the vantage point of today no longer a mountaintop, more like a pitchers mound it is hard to imagine a Democratic South. Governors like Floridas Ron DeSantis and Texas Greg Abbott can count on their constituents including evangelicals who now excuse Trumps mores to oppose a whole host of Democratic issues, from immigration to abortion, sexual preference and schoolbooks. What began with racial civil rights has broadened to take in a host of third rails separating Democrats from some states.

When it comes to immigration, it could be an issue that determines the presidency. In 2022, 2.8 million would-be immigrants were apprehended or turned away at the border the highest number since 1980. Migrants correctly understand that if they reach U.S. shores, it will be years, if ever, before they are sent back. In fact, in 2021, courts removed only 89,000 illegal immigrants, the lowest number since 1996.

More importantly for the nations governance, it is an issue for voters. When Hillary Clinton ran for president in 2016, seasoned politicos scratched their heads over her cultivation of illegal immigrants as a sort of protected class, since by definition those same people were ineligible to vote. She was playing to the wrong audience, a mistake the GOP would never make. If you want to enact policies, you first must gain office. If your platforms doom you to electoral defeat, the things you believe in will remain fairy dust. The Dems are looking pretty dusty these days.

In a recent Gallup poll, 63 percent of voters are dissatisfied with the immigration status quo, a sharp rise over the past two years of polling. Among Republicans, that dissatisfaction is at 71 percent, the highest such number Gallup has ever recorded for this. Even more telling, adult Latino voters are joining the South in migrating away from the Democratic Party. According to a 2021 survey by the Pew Research Center, 53 percent of adult Latinos say immigration is in need of major change, and an additional 29 percent say our policies need to be completely rebuilt. In the coming election, this is five-alarm fire.

Yet President Joe Bidens reelection team had their feet stuck in mud. With his back against the wall on arms for a faltering Ukraine, he ventured a deal on immigration reform. Then Donald Trump, dominating the primaries, weighed in. Bidens border turnabout was dead in the water. Trumps GOP was not about to let Biden claim immigration reform. His bully pulpit, in the face of pressure from the progressive wing of his party, had stayed mute too long. Trump, his 77 years ironically vigorous in comparison, understood the potency of his rallying cry from 2016: Build a wall! A vulnerable Biden seemed asleep at a wheel, evidencing 81 years of wear.

Weve been down the road with a well-meaning Democratic president: Jimmy Carter, a man voters tried to like. The hostage crisis and gas lines around the block condemned him to a single term. In addition to Bidens age, the crisis at the border could be the straw that breaks the camels back for him. Its not the polls Im reading, though those are justifiably worrisome. Its a perfect storm of perception. Stir into the mix Russian President Vladimir Putin with no exit strategy in Ukraine and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with none in Gaza. Biden is tangled in both their webs, waiting to be eaten by an Electoral College spider.

In that game-changing year of 1964, the Carter family sang, It takes a worried man to sing a worried song, Im worried now but I wont be worried long. Come Nov. 6, the day after elections, my worries may not have been long, but they might meet Waterloo on the Rio Grande.

Dalton Delan can be followed on Twitter @UnspinRoom. He has won Emmy, Peabody and duPont-Columbia awards for his work as a television producer.

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For Biden and Democrats, immigration reform is a wicked policy problem - Berkshire Eagle