Mediaboss Marketing

In late June, President Trump met with a dozen or so family members of Americans killed by undocumented immigrants as part of a push for two new laws targeting illegal immigration. Were calling on all members of Congress to honor grieving American families by passing these lifesaving measures in the House, in the Senate, and then sending them to my desk for a very rapid signature, he said at the White House meeting, a day before the lower chamber approved both bills. I promise youit will be done quickly.

Immigration restrictionist groups arent so sure about that promise, though they share the presidents desire to curb entries into the United States and force undocumented immigrants out. In their view, and in actuality, the legislation faces difficulty in the Senate, where lawmakers have been mired in a debate over health care and have plans to take up tax reform next. These advocates see the legislation, at best, as a path toward a broader, more stringent immigration measure. But at worst, the bills could be just another letdown.

Trumps Immigration Allies Are Growing Frustrated With Him

Ahead of the June meeting, House Judiciary Committee Chairman Bob Goodlatte had introduced the pair of bills. One was Kates Law, which imposes tougher sentences on offenders who were previously deported and returned to the United States illegally. (It was named for a young woman, Kate Steinle, who was shot and killed by a man whod been deported five times before reentering the country.) The other was the No Sanctuary for Criminals Act, which hits on Trumps campaign promise to punish jurisdictions that limit their cooperation with federal immigration authorities. The bill cuts off some federal grants for these self-described sanctuary cities, like San Francisco where Steinle was shot. The bills crack down on dangerous sanctuary policies that needlessly put innocent lives at risk, Goodlatte said in a statement at the time.

The president touted their passage through the House as a victory. But like-minded organizations dont seem to be keeping their hopes up. Theres some sign of legislative life in the House and thats very encouraging to us, but in the end, the Senate is where bills seem to go to die, said Dan Stein, the president of the Federation for American Immigration Reform, which advocates for more immigration restrictions. Considering the record of legislative achievement in the Senate, getting those passed would provide some assurance that something can get done.

Steins group and others are growing frustrated with Trump, who made cracking down on illegal immigration the cornerstone of his presidential campaign. The president has so far come up short on multiple pledgesamong others, his plan to immediately repeal the Obama-era Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program and another to seal off the entire U.S.-Mexico border. Trumps assurances about the bills future seem to fit a larger pattern of overpromising on his agenda. And not just on immigration: When we win on November 8th and elect a Republican Congress, we will be able to immediately repeal and replace Obamacare, he said just before the election. We will do it very, very quickly. Months later, that still hasnt happened, and Trumps influence in Congress has often looked questionable.

So if any Trump supporters are looking to the Senate for a win on the two new bills, theyre unlikely to get it anytime soon. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has not said whether hell put Kates Law or the No Sanctuary for Criminals Act on legislators schedule, but the bills already look destined for Democratic pushback. Similar legislation has failed to advance in the Senate before. Another, slightly different bill known as Kates Law went down in a 55-42 vote last year. So did another sanctuary-cities measure. Theres little sign the new bills would have more luck securing Senate Democrats votesespecially when Trumps anti-immigrant rhetoric seems to grow only more graphic.

Just three Democrats in the House supported the No Sanctuary for Criminals Act. While Kates Law received support from 24 of them in the lower chamber, their Senate counterparts dont seem likely to follow suit. Instead of criminalizing and scapegoating immigrants, Congress should be offering workable comprehensive reforms that actually strengthen our economy and national security, said Democratic Senator Bob Menendez of New Jersey in a statement. Until then, we will continue to be a firm wall of resistanceusing all tools at our disposalto prevent Republicans from blindly trying to sanction this administrations mass deportation agenda.

House Democrats who voted for Kates Law have already come under fire by Latino Victory Project, a group that supports Latino political candidates. I think its shameful that these members, this handful of Democrats, decided to stand with Donald Trump instead of with Latinos and immigrantsinstead of their own constituents, Cristbal Alex, the groups president, said earlier this month.

Still, its not impossible that some Democrats could defect. As The Hill reported earlier this month, a renewed push could force the 10 senators running for reelection in purple and red states won by Trump to take a tough, politically controversial vote. In particular, Senate Republicans, who as a group have largely supported immigration-enforcement bills in the past, may look to Democrats like Joe Manchin of West Virginia for support. Manchin and two other Democrats up in 2018, Joe Donnelly of Indiana and Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, joined Republicans in voting for the 2016 Kates Law in the Senate. But its not clear what position theyll take on the latest iteration.

Jonathan Kott, Manchins communications director, said the senator has been focused on health care and hasnt had a chance to review the bills yet. A spokeswoman for Heitkamp expressed doubt about the legislation even coming to the floor: The bills and amendments on this issue that have been voted on in the past in the Senate have all been different. Additionally, its still to be determined what bill, if any, will get a vote in the Senate. (Donnelly could not be reached for comment.) Republicans would need at least eight Democrats to advance legislation.

Chris Chmielenski, the director of content and activism at NumbersUSA, is more optimistic than others about the bills potential. For one, he predicts theres a decent chance McConnell will bring the sanctuary-cities bill to the floor. Its prospects really depend on how much pressure [the] administration puts on those Democrats that are up for reelection in 2018, said Chmielenski, whose organization supports reduced immigration. He has even greater confidence in Kates Law because of the publicity it received during the campaign and with Trump frequently invoking Steinles name and story.

We dont think [Kates Law is] necessarily an impactful piece of legislation, but because you did have 24 Democrats cross over party lines and vote with the Republicans on itand because it does have some branding, it has some national name recognitionI think theres a good chance that its going to come to the Senate floor, he said. If it does, he thinks it has a chance at passing through the Senate.

Others have their doubts about Kates Law. If only Kates Law passes, it changes almost nothing, said Jessica Vaughan, the director of policy studies for the Center for Immigration Studies, which advocates for limiting immigration. Just passing Kates Law is a tiny drop in the bucket of what needs to change. If they dont pass the sanctuary bill, were going to continue to have a huge public-safety problem with sanctuary policies.

For that same reason, Stein is concerned Democrats will vote for Kates Law, but not the sanctuary-cities bill, to stave off criticism from constituents. Were concerned that Kates Law might be viewed as political cover by some of the Senate Democrats who feel that the violent crimes committed by aliens who shouldve been deported or removed creates enough political liability that they need to take that vote, Stein said.

Perhaps even more dire for the groups agenda is Congress losing its appetite for immigration legislation. Of course our biggest concern is that ... they do pass the sanctuary cities bill, they do pass Kates Law through the Senate, and Trump signs them into law and then thats it, no further action is taken, Chmielenski said.

Immigrant advocates and civil-rights groups, meanwhile, have raised alarm over both bills. The immigration enforcement approach championed by the Trump administration and embodied by Bob Goodlattes bills would harm, rather than help, public safety, said Lynn Tramonte, the deputy director of Americas Voice Education Fund in a statement. Despite the costs and consequences already on display throughout the country, House Republicans are poised to put the Trump administrations existing cruel approach into overdrive.

I think generally were concerned that this represents the congressional implementation of Trumps executive orders on immigration, said Jose Magaa-Salgado, the managing policy attorney at the Immigrant Legal Resource Center.

For now, Trumps immigration allies are waiting on McConnell. If they miss this opportunity, [its] not a good sign for future legislationthen it looks like were condemned to bicker over issues endlessly without really changing anything, Vaughan said.

Read more:
Could Trump's Immigration Agenda Ever Get Through Congress? - The Atlantic