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Some conservatives are raging with wild claims of sinister intent over President Barack Obamas executive action on immigration. The move will be on to grant them health care benefits and citizenship within six months of Obamas executive action, warned Rush Limbaugh. Likewise, said Michele Bachmann, The president has a very single-minded vision. Hes looking at new voters for 2016. . . . People do vote without being a citizen. Its a wink and a nod, we all know its going to happen.

The most explicit version came from Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach, a staunch opponent of immigration reform and vocal advocate of voter identification laws. Speaking on his radio show, he said, The long-term strategy of, first of all, replacing American voters with illegal aliens, recently legalized, who then become U.S. citizens. He continued: There is still a decided bias in favor of bigger government, not smaller government. So maybe this strategy of replacing American voters with newly legalized aliens, if you look at it through an ethnic lens . . . youve got a locked-in vote for socialism.

There you have it: President Obama is trying to engineer a permanent majority by legalizing new voters and giving them benefits to strengthen their link to the Democratic Party. This probably isnt true as far as anyone knows, neither Obama nor Democratic strategists are rubbing their hands like Birdman in anticipation of a final victory but it does touch on something based in reality. Put simply, Latinos are a large and important part of the Democratic coalition; without their heavy support, Democrats couldnt win Florida, Nevada and New Mexico, and would have a hard time with places like Colorado and Virginia, where new Latino voters helped Democrats flip the states from Republican control in 2008 and 2012.

Right-wing claims aside, the presidents immigration order wont give voting rights to unauthorized immigrants. But it could bolster Democratic standing with Latinos, Asians and other groups with deep ties to immigrant communities. Or, if thats too much, it could at least reverse the slide on the eve of this years midterm elections, just 63 percent of Latinos leaned toward or identified with the Democratic Party, down from 70 percent in 2012.

But even this frame gives a little too much agency to politicians, who are more reactive than forward-thinking. More than anything, this is a case of Democratic politicians reacting to the activists who have pressured the White House on immigration for six years, pushing legislation and demanding new avenues for action when Congress didnt deliver. And after a year of increasingly negative pressure, the party and the president relented. The right way to look at Obamas executive order, in short, is as a textbook case of successful interest group pressure.

And while there are electoral consequences, I think both sides could stand a dose of reality in their predictions. Contrary to conservative fears, Republicans dont have to worry about losing elections because of the presidents executive order. And on the other side, Democrats shouldnt see this as a panacea for boosting Latino turnout in future contests.

Its important to remember that Latinos (and Asians, the other group most affected by immigration policy) have relatively low rates of voter registration. Last year Gallup found that just 51 percent of Latinos and 60 percent of Asians were registered to vote, compared with 85 percent of whites and 81 percent of blacks. And while a record number of Latinos were eligible to vote in this years elections 25.2 million, according to the Pew Research Center they were a small percentage of the overall voting population in key races across the country. In the nations closest Senate contests, for instance, Latinos were just 4.7 percent of eligible voters.

Moreover, neither Latinos nor Asians are evenly distributed across the political landscape. Latinos are concentrated in the Southwest and on the West Coast, with the largest populations in deep-red states like Texas and Arizona or deep-blue states like New Mexico and California. And similarly, Asians are largely on the West Coast. Only a few places have moderate-size Latino populations, and while it has made a difference for presidential elections giving Democrats an edge in Nevada and a chance in North Carolina, for example it hasnt meant much for statewide and congressional races, where Republicans are still competitive.

Absent an immigration order that grants citizenship to unauthorized immigrants which would prompt a real constitutional crisis theres no world in which conservative fears on immigration and elections come to pass.

As for Democrats, helping unauthorized immigrants may pay some dividends in the next elections. Those Latinos who werent thrilled with the Democratic Party but lean toward its views might decide to register and vote, strengthening the party wherever they live. And on the margins, that can matter a great deal; Democrats and Republicans are almost evenly matched in Florida, where a few thousand votes can sway state and federal elections. A Florida where more Latinos vote and where they vote for Democrats is one where the Democratic Party is set to break the states stalemate.

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Column: Immigration Reform Wont Change Political Status Quo