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The Vitals

Ascertainingthe size of the undocumented population is difficult. Estimates vary accordingto the methodology used. While anti-immigrant groups maintain that the flow of undocumentedimmigrants has increased, estimates show that over a longer period the numberhas declined. An often-overlooked fact is that many illegal immigrants paypayroll taxes and sales taxes.

Estimates of the number of undocumented immigrants living in the U.S. range from 10.5 million to 12 million, or approximately 3.2%3.6% of the population.

Immigrants from Mexico have recently, for the first time, fallen to less than half of the undocumented population.

In evaluating the cost of illegal immigration, both benefits consumed and taxes paid must be counted.

A Closer Look

Theissue of undocumented immigrants has been front and center in Americanelections since 2016; it has elicited passionate responses from all parts ofthe political spectrum. Here are a few facts voters need as they wade throughthe thicket of rhetoric on this issue.

How do we count people who are here illegally?

Ascertainingthe size of the illegal population is difficult because, as is obvious, peoplewho are here illegally dont always want to tell pollsters their legal status (orabsence thereof.) The first step estimators use is to take data from the CensusBureaus American Community Survey, or ACS, which interviews over 2 millionhouseholds a year. This survey asks people where they were born and whetherthey are U.S. citizens, but it does not ask if they are here illegally. Thisyields a total number for the foreign-born population.

The nextstep is to subtract from that total the number of foreign-born residents who weknow for certain are here legally. Among them are naturalized citizens, peoplewho have permanent resident status (green cards), and people who have beenadmitted as refugees. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) keeps carefulrecords of the first two groups and the Department of Health and Human Serviceskeeps careful records of the third. By subtracting the number of people who we know for certain are here legallyfrom the overall number of foreign-born in the ACS survey we can estimate thenumber of undocumented residents.

Ofcourse, not all undocumented people take part in surveys, and for good reasonthey do not want to be found out. So, mostestimates assume that there is an undercount. ThePew Research Center relies, in part, on survey and census data fromMexico. They estimate the undercount to be somewhere in the range of 5 to 15percent, which is then added to the number of undocumented immigrants. DHSbelieves that the undercount is 10% and adjusts its estimatesaccordingly.

The sizeof the undercount is a matter of controversy. Opponents of illegal immigration suchas FAIR (Federation for American Immigration Reform) argue that theundercount is in fact much bigger. To get to their estimates they analyze otherdata such as the percentage of migrants who failed to show up for theirimmigration hearings and those who have overstayed their visas.

So, what are the numbers?

Thenumbers of undocumented vary according to the methodology used, and theresalso a lag in the estimates because it takes time for accurate data to becomeavailable. The last estimate released by the Office of Immigration Statisticsat DHS came in December 2018: As of January 1, 2015, there were 11.96 millionundocumented immigrants in the U.S. The most recent Pew Research estimate putsthe total number of unauthorized immigrants at 10.5 million in 2017. Overall,this represents a minority of the foreign-born population, which in 2017numbered 44.5million45% of whom are naturalizedcitizens, and 27% of whom are lawful permanent residents.

While anti-immigrantgroups maintain that the flow of illegal immigrants has increased, estimates showthat over a longer period the number of undocumented immigrants has declined,from 12.2 million in 2005 to 10.5 million in 2017 accordingto Pews estimates. DHS figures dont go beyond 2015, but they estimatethat the population of undocumented immigrants increased by 70,000 people peryear between 2010 and 2015, compared to increases of 470,000 per year between2000 and 2007.

Who are the undocumented?

Immigrantsfrom Mexico have recently, for the first time since 1990, represented lessthan half of the undocumented population. According to Pew, in 2017, about 4.95million of the 10.5 million undocumented population were from Mexico,1.9 million from Central America, and 1.45 million from Asia. About two-thirds ofundocumented immigrants have been in the U.S. for 10 years or longer. In 2017, just 20%of undocumented, adult immigrants had lived in the U.S. for 5 years or less.

Incontrast to the President Trumps rhetoric about building a wall at the Mexicanborder, illegal migration has shifted since 2010 from border-crossing to visaoverstaysthe latter share has been greater than border crossings since 2010. TheCenter for Migration Studies estimatesthat in 2016, 62% of the undocumented were here because they overstayed theirvisas versus 38% who crossed the border illegally.

Anothercontroversy is over how much illegal immigrants cost the system. An often overlookedfact is that illegal immigrants are taxpayers. The anti-immigrant lobby tendsto ignore the money the immigrants often pay in payrolland sales taxes while counting the money spent on educating children born inthe United States to immigrants. Numbers vary widely depending on the source,but undocumented immigrants are not eligiblefor most federal benefit programs, like the Supplemental Nutrition AssistanceProgram. In evaluating the cost of illegal immigration, the voter has to makesure that the argument takes in both benefits consumed and taxes paid.

What about the Dreamers?

DeferredAction for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) was implemented by President Obama toallow manyundocumented individuals who came to the U.S. before their 16th birthday towork in the U.S. and defer any action on their immigration cases for arenewable two-year period. About 800,000immigrants have been covered by DACA at some point since it wasimplemented; 690,000 are currently in the program. According to Pew, the gapconsists of approximately 70,000 who were rejected for renewal or opted not torenew, and 40,000 who were able to obtain a green card. At present no newapplications are being accepted by USCIS, so the number of Dreamers is notlikely to grow.

What are the candidates saying?

In the2020 campaign, President Trump has continued his push for a wall at thesouthern border, on top of increased enforcement both at the border and in theinterior. On the Democratic side, all the candidates support a pathway tocitizenship for undocumented immigrants, which would require gettinglegislation through Congress. There are also shorter-term proposals that a newpresident could enact on their own, like Elizabeth Warrens plan to reinstateDACA and to expanddeferred action to include more than the Dreamers. Kamala Harris hassaid she would reinstate DACA and implement DAPA, the shelved policy to protectthe Dreamers parents. Pete Buttigieg has stated that he would restore the enforcementpriorities set by the Obama administration. A number of theDemocratic candidates have voicedsupport for repealing the law that makes it a crimeto cross the border without authorization.

As wehave seen during the Trump administration, the president can do a great deal evenabsent legislation to affect the situation of those seeking to come to theUnited States.

Dig Deeper

Donald Trump rode to the presidency on immigration issues. During the Republican primaries and then again during the general election campaign, Trumps most loyal followers erupted in cheers whenever he mentioned getting tough on unauthorized immigration.

Casting immigrants as violent criminals, refugees as terrorists, and the border as unsecured, President Trumps rhetoric on immigration has painted a grim picture.

Will the Congress manage to come up with an immigration deal that President Trump will sign? That is the question on everyones minds as negotiators in Congress work towards a deal that could avert a second government shutdown and/or result in an unprecedented presidential declaration of national emergency.

Link:
How many undocumented immigrants are in the United States and who are they? - Brookings Institution