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History and a handful of issues threaten the Democrats' narrow congressional majorities in next year's midterm elections.

Even though President Joe Biden's job approval ratings remain solid if unspectacular, standing at 52.6% in the RealClearPolitics polling average and 51.3% in FiveThirtyEight's, the first midterm election has tended to go against the president's party since the 1930s. But Democrats are facing major headwinds beyond past precedent as they seek to hold on to their 50-50 split in the Senate only Vice President Kamala Harris's tiebreaking vote gives them control and nine-vote margin over Republicans in the House.

Democrats lost seats in the House last year as Biden rolled up 51.4% of the national popular vote and took the Senate only by sweeping both Georgia runoff elections in January. Since taking unified control of the elected branches of the federal government, several problems have emerged that could make 2022 even more difficult including some familiar ones that set back Democrats for a generation after the 1970s.

Rising crime

The drop in violent crime that began in the 1990s appears to be coming to an end. In fact, it may have been over in 2014. Homicides are spiking in major cities, and gun deaths reached their highest total in two decades last year.

A recent poll found that 54% consider violent crime a major crisis, while another 37% view it as a major problem short of a crisis, both greater than the percentages who say the same about the pandemic. Only 9% said crime was a minor problem or not one at all, the smallest percentage of any of the 14 issues tested in the poll.

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This has historically been a difficult issue for Democrats, although the above poll does show the public trusts the party on crime right now. But top Democratic operatives believe causes like "defund the police" hurt them against Republicans last year, despite Biden's attempts to disavow the movement. The GOP is poised to seize on continued violence, which has traditionally been a winning formula.

"We now have 24/7 news, so that even people who are not affected by rising crime may feel affected," said a policing researcher at a conservative think tank.

Inflation

Consumer prices have seen their biggest year-over-year increase since 2008 as even some Democratic economists, such as former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, worry about massive new spending overheating the economy. A New York Federal Reserve Bank survey found inflation expectations hitting a new high.

An Economist/YouGov poll also found that 42% of adults consider prices of goods and services to be the most important economic indicator, compared to 25% who picked unemployment and jobs reports. This is a stunning reversal from the same numbers in January.

Former President Jimmy Carter can tell Democrats what kind of impact inflation can have on their electoral fortunes. "Aside from the structural issues like redistricting, which is a massive hurdle for them in the House, inflation looms over their prospects in a massive way," said GOP strategist Matt Gorman, a former communications director for the National Republican Congressional Committee. "It's essentially a tax on the middle class. Combine that with actual taxes they want to raise, and you have a recipe for an uphill climb in 2022."

Border crisis

Shortly after Biden took office, a migration surge overwhelmed federal authorities at the border. Apprehensions were higher in February than in January, higher in March than in February, higher in April than in March, and higher in May than in April. By March, the number of people attempting to enter the country illegally hit a 20-year high.

While conceding their policies offered "hope" to migrants that had been missing for the past four years, the Biden White House noted that the surge had been building in the final months of the previous administration. But the numbers are now worse, and there has even been a new uptick in migrant children five months into the Biden administration.

Consequently, some of Biden's lowest job approval ratings concern his handling of immigration and the border. A late June Fox News poll in which 53% approved of Biden's performance overall concluded that just 41% approved of how he was doing on immigration, compared to 54% who disapproved.

A Harvard/Harris poll found that 43% consider illegal immigration a serious problem, and another 37% labeled it a somewhat serious problem. Immigration ranked as the third most important issue behind jobs and the economy, followed by the pandemic in this survey.

Wokeness

From the backlash against the teaching of critical race theory in public schools to polling on politically vocal companies, Republicans are hopeful that today's censorious liberals can be a winning campaign issue for them.

Some Democratic strategists agree, with longtime Bill Clinton adviser James Carville calling wokeness a "problem" and the party's "kryptonite." "It's hard to talk to anybody today and I talk to lots of people in the Democratic Party who doesn't say this," he told Vox. "But they don't want to say it out loud because they'll get clobbered or canceled." Democratic data guru David Shor determined in his 2020 autopsy report that this was among a cluster of issues that drove conservative-leaning nonwhite voters, especially Hispanics, away from the party last November.

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Small majorities

These issues aside, the Democrats simply don't have many seats to spare. Republicans added 52 House seats in the first Clinton midterm in 1994 and 63 during President Barack Obama's initial midterm in 2010. Republicans experienced a net gain of nine Senate seats in Obama's second midterm in 2014.

This time, the GOP doesn't need a wave election. A net gain of one Senate seat and seven House seats would be sufficient for the majorities. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report estimates Republicans could pick up three to four House seats from redistricting alone.

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