Why Hillary Clinton e-mail troubles don't mean much for 2016
Its been just over two weeks now since we first learned, via a New York Times report, thatHillary Clinton had used a private e-mail account for all her official communicationswhile she was secretary of State, a revelation that raised eyebrows on both sides of the aisle in Washington, to say the least. Roughly a week later, Clinton made her first real public statement on the matter at a press conference which seemed toraise more questions than it answeredand revealed, among other things, that Clinton and her advisers had been the sole parties to review her e-mails after she left office to decide what was personal and what was related to her State Department work. While that press conference didnt go over well, and Republicans on Capitol Hill have signaled that they intend to pursue the issue further both as it relates tothe ongoing Benghazi investigationandmore generally,there have been few signs that Clinton is being harmed by the story. A Gallup poll last week, for example, showed thatClinton had higher favorable numbers than any of the potential Republican candidates for presidentnotwithstanding the fact that her numbers had fallen significantly since she had served at Foggy Bottom and, indeed, that she seemed to berunning away with the race.Now,a new poll from CNN shows Clinton with massive leadsboth in the race for the Democratic nomination and in hypothetical general election matchups:
Washington (CNN) Hillary Clinton continues to be a dominant force heading into the 2016 presidential election,according to a new CNN/ORC poll.The former secretary of state maintains a broad lead over the field of potential Democratic challengers she could face in a nomination contest and sizable advantages over the leading contenders from the Republican side in general election match-ups.
Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush tops the possible field for the Republican Partys nomination race, followed by Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former neurosurgeon Ben Carson all in a tight cluster.
But none of the top candidates in this field gets within 10 points of Hillary Clinton in a series of hypothetical general election matchups.
Rand Paul comes closest, with 43% saying theyd be more likely to back him while 54% choose Clinton. The two candidates who currently top the GOP field, Bush and Walker, match up equally against Clinton, with each carrying 40% to her 55%. Huckabee gets 41% to Clintons 55% and Carson has 40% to Clintons 56%.
In the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, Clinton holds a nearly 50-point lead over Vice President Joe Biden, her closest competitor in the field, 62% to 15%. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren rounds out the top three on the Democratic side with 10%. No other potential candidate tops 5%.
Should Warren decide not to get into the race, Clinton stands to benefit more than others, gaining 5 points and holding a 67% to 16% advantage over Biden when Warrens backers are re-allocated to their second-choice candidate. Notably, with Warren out of the race, Clinton surges from 67% support to 74% among Democratic women.
And Democrats broadly believe the partys chances to hold the White House in 2016 are strongest with Clinton; 68% say so, while 30% say the party would have a better shot with someone else leading the ticket.
As always, one must keep in mind the caveat about early polls when looking at data like this. The Democratic primaries dont begin for another 11 months, and the general election is still some 20 months away. At the very least, though, it appears to be safe to say that there seems to be little doubt at this point that Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee for president next year, barring something completely unforeseeable at the moment. This polls shows the same thing that others in the past have shown, namely that Clinton has a seemingly insurmountable lead over her potential Democratic opponents, as well as Democrats who clearly arent going to get into the race, such as Elizabeth Warren. As Ive noted before, this lead is far more substantial, and far stronger, than the one Clinton had over Barack Obama at a comparable time in the 2008 election cycle, and there isnt anyone in the potential Democratic field who could even come close to being the an Obama-like candidate. So, unless theres some unforeseen stumble on Clintons part, or a health issue, its pretty much a certainty that Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic Partys candidate for president in 2016.
When it comes to the general election, its obviously far too early to say anything with certainty even based on these numbers. There are any number of things that could happen between now and November 2016 that could influence that outcome of the general election, many of which will be beyond the control of either of the candidates. The domestic economy could take a downturn, or there could be an international crisis that would likely cause problems for the Democrat seeking to succeed President Obama, Alternatively, Republicans could find themselves making the same kind of mistakes theyve made in the past, which seems quite likely given the wide open GOP field and the likelihood that candidates will feel the need to pander to the most extreme elements of the party. Perhaps most importantly, we dont know if Hillary Clinton will be able to get the same kind of turnout among minority and young voters that President Obama did in 2008 and 2012, factors that were hugely important to his victory in both of these elections. And, finally, since we dont even know who the Republican nominee will be, most of these head-to-head matchup polls are purely hypothetical.
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Why Hillary Clinton e-mail troubles don't mean much for 2016
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