The Fix: New Hampshire, and the case for Hillary Clinton not quite being inevitable
New Hampshire has been very good to the Clintons, making Bill Clinton the "comeback kid" in its1992 primary and helping Hillary Clinton to a badly neededvictory after Barack Obama won Iowa in 2008. And Hillary Clinton is a strong favorite there again this year -- as she is nearly everywhere.
But as we enter the 2016 campaign, it's worth remembering that New Hampshire likes to surprise us.And there are plenty ofreasons to keep an eye on the Granite State when it comes to Clinton's supposed "inevitability" as the Democratic nominee.
Despite vast coverage of Clinton's dominance in lining upfora presidential run,three in four likely New Hampshire Democratic primary votersin a newWMUR Granite State Pollsay they're "still trying to decide" who they'll vote for in the state's 2016 primary. Just 7 percent say they've"definitely decided."
The widespread lack of commitment in the poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire, is unsurprising roughly one year before voting. But it isa reminderthere's ampleroomfor volatility in aDemocratic race which thus farhas looked like a looming Clinton rout. People are at least open-minded.
Between the courting of top strategists and Democratic donors,polls asking how Democrats would vote "if the election were held today" have found Clinton dominating other hopefuls.Indeed, 58 percent in the same sample of Democrats said they would support Clinton today, withSen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) in a distant second at 14 percent and Vice President Biden at 8 percent. Thisdoes not imply muchhemming and hawing, but the "still trying to decide" number assures she hasn't put the Democratic nomination on ice just yet (nor should we expect her to have done so).
The lack of final decision is not itself worrisome for Clinton; voterssimply don't decide this early. At this point in 2011, the Republican field was in a very similar situation, with 78 percent of Republican likely voters in February 2011survey still trying to decide who to support -- even as Mitt Romney held a 30-point lead over other potential contenders in a state he wound up dominating in 2012.Romney won by 16 points over RonPaul, smaller than his initial edge but still a no-doubted from the beginning.
But thesurvey offers other clues as to Clinton'svulnerabilities among primary voters and makes clearDemocratic voters are not thrilled abouttheir options so far. Fewer than one in five Democratssay they're "very satisfied" with the choice of candidates for the Democratic nomination (18 percent);63 percent take poll choiceequivalent of "meh," saying they are "somewhat satisfied." Anddespite nearlysix in 10 preferring her to other Democrats, just 32 percent say she is the most likable and 31 percent say she's the most believable. No other candidate, though, beats her on these attributes.
The rest of the poll is gravy for Clinton's prospects, and bodes particularly poorly for Joe Biden, one of her strongest potential rivals. More thaneight in 10have a favorableimpression of her (83 percent) and just 9 percent are unfavorable -- by far the best favorable-unfavorable margin(+74).Others like Warren and Sanders are similarly well-liked by those who know them, but aren't as well-known.
Biden's image is weakeraccording to the poll.His favorability margin is a modest +23 (53 percent favorable/30 percent unfavorable), which far weaker than Warren or Clinton and worse than surveys by the same pollster in October and July (+32 and +47 favorabilitymargins, respectively.) Biden isless popular in New Hampshire than Iowa, where a Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics poll found a 78/20 percent favorable/unfavorable split on general impressions.
The poll underscores how much Clinton's candidacy banks on otherDemocrats failing to makestrong impression ahead of primaries this fall, and the importance of maintaining herown positive image. When New Hampshire voters do begin to decide, she'll want voters' opinionsto look a lot they do rightnow.
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The Fix: New Hampshire, and the case for Hillary Clinton not quite being inevitable
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