How Democrats Defeats Help and Hurt Hillary Clinton

The midterm election Tuesday was a debacle for the Democratic Party, but for Hillary Clinton the results arent so clear-cut.

Here are five ways the elections helped Mrs. Clinton, and five ways they hurt.

Why they helped:

(1)From the wreckage of the election, many Democrats are now looking to Mrs. Clinton to rebuild the party and remind the rank-and-file that a big prize is still within reach: retaining the White House. President Barack Obama remains the titular head of the party, but hes badly wounded. His approval ratings have sagged to historic lows and he has lost his governing majority in Congress. In Mrs. Clinton, a demoralized party may see the possibility of better days ahead. Speaking the day after the election, Alan Kessler, a longtime Democratic fundraiser, said: I will tell you now, today, on a very gloomy morning, thats what people see as a glimmer of hope.

(2) The election was less a repudiation of the Washington establishment than a rejection of Washington gridlock. After all, voters reelected the ultimate Washington insider: Kentucky Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell, who got to the Senate 30 years ago. That might bode well for Mrs. Clinton. She can position herself as an antidote to Washington dysfunction, playing up her experience as a former senator and top diplomat who knows how to reach consensus. Some of her supporters believe the target of voter anger was not Democratic policies or politicians, but Mr. Obama.

The disenchantment we saw in the election is a disenchantment with Obama, said Lynn Forester de Rothschild, a Clinton supporter and Democratic donor, and outspoken critic of Mr. Obama. Its not about his policies raising the minimum wage or mainstream Democratic policies that Hillary supports. Voters are fed up with the arrogance and incompetence that Obama has demonstrated in office. Whatever the Republicans say about Hillary, they cant say those two things about her.

(3) The damage was so sweeping that Democrats may be more inclined to coalesce behind a Hillary Clinton candidacy. Democrats lost the House in 2010 and the Senate on Tuesday. Losing the White House in 2016 would be an unwelcome trifecta. Rather than endure a contested primary season in which Mrs. Clinton is forced to spend money and political capital securing the nomination, the party may be more inclined to unite behind her and give her a running start for the general election showdown with the GOP. Democrats went through a version of this in 2004, when the party rejected Vermont Gov. Howard Deans insurgent campaign and instead tapped someone who seemed a safer bet: Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry. A party that doesnt have the House and Senate becomes a lot more pragmatic about choosing a nominee, because it cant possibly fathom the possibility of losing it all, said Joe Trippi, who worked on Mr. Deans campaign.

(4) Now that Republicans control both the House and Senate, theyre under renewed pressure to show they can govern. Can they pull it off? Will they forge popular compromises with Mr. Obama that create jobs and jumpstart the economic recovery? Or will they use their power to launch investigations that prove embarrassing to Mr. Obama but strike many Americans as a sideshow? If the GOP overreaches, that could be a boon to Mrs. Clinton. She could make the point that the GOP has little to show for their majority status. The Democrats are off the hook in large measure, said Harold Ickes, a senior adviser in Mrs. Clintons 2008 campaign. It will depend now on what the Republicans come up with in Congress.

(5) No one can say Mrs. Clinton didnt do her part to boost the Democratic vote. She attended nearly four dozen fundraising events, rallies and get-out-the-vote drives. Along with her husband she was the main Democratic surrogate in closely contested Senate races that Mr. Obama avoided due to his low popularity. So, Mrs. Clinton campaigned repeatedly for Alison Lundergan Grimes, the Kentucky senate candidate who wound up losing big to Mr. McConnell. Its doubtful Mrs. Clinton will face stiff competition for the Democratic nomination. But if its a fight, Mrs. Clinton built some good will with party leaders and activists by sticking her neck out for longshot candidates. She and President Clintons efforts were certainly sought after. And their efforts to support Democratic candidates were deeply appreciated and well received, said Mack McLarty, a former chief of staff in Bill Clintons White House.

Why the elections hurt Mrs. Clinton

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How Democrats Defeats Help and Hurt Hillary Clinton

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