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Increasingly in Washington, the question is not whether Chinas Peoples Liberation Army will invade Taiwan its when.

Ask three different people about when it will happen, and you will get three different answers. Earlier this year, retired Indo-Pacific Commander Adm. Philip Davidson reiterated his earlier assessment that China could launch military action in 2027. Gen. Mike Minihan, the commander of U.S. Air Mobility Command, made a splash in January when he sent a memo to his officers that the U.S. could be at war with the PLA within two years. Adm. Mike Gilday, the chief of naval operations, was even starker in his own projection last fall: The Chinese could give the go order in 2022 or potentially 2023.

Now, Hillary Clinton is getting into the game.

AS CHINA'S AGGRESSION GROWS, US ALLIES REASSESS SECURITY IN THE INDO-PACIFIC REGION

During a discussion in New York City, the former secretary of state claimed that Chinas Xi Jinping could have ordered a strike on Taiwan in two to three years. But, she said, "I think that time table has been pushed back." She cited the Russian military's poor performance in Ukraine as a reason why Xi may be having second thoughts about starting his own war.

Is Clinton right?

Anything is possible. Xi can read the room at least as well as any other foreign leader, and its within the realm of possibility that Vladimir Putins disaster of an invasion scared him away from a Taiwan invasion or pushed him to slow down his original plans. Still, objectively speaking, a Taiwan contingency wouldnt look very similar to how Russia is prosecuting its war in Ukraine anyway. The most basic reason is geography. Ukraine is a large landmass in the middle of Europe, sharing a land border with a belligerent in Russia. Taiwan is an island roughly 100 miles east of China's coast, with rocky beaches that would make an already complicated, large-scale amphibious operation even more difficult.

The Russian army didnt have to worry about rolling over the Ukrainian border with their tanks and armored personnel carriers; in fact, Russian troops made rapid gains across Ukrainian territory during the first few days of the invasion (until they were bogged down in the suburbs outside Kyiv). The PLA wouldnt have the luxury of simply stepping over a border and making a beeline toward the capital. Instead, Beijing would be forced to mount an extraordinarily complex naval operation across a wide Taiwan Strait and hope its troops and sailors could establish a beachhead on the Taiwanese coast, assuming, of course, they can cut through the sea mines and coastal defenses the Taiwanese would no doubt set up in advance.

There's more.

Even if the Chinese were able to establish a beachhead stronghold, the work would be far from over. The PLA would need continuously to protect and sustain a lengthy (and exposed) supply-line network that would be exposed to strikes from the air, all while PLA troops would be fighting Taiwanese resistance on land. All of this would be a tough feat to pull off for an experienced military, let alone one such as Chinas that hasnt fought a conflict in more than four decades.

None of this even begins to account for the nonmilitary responses, such as financial sanctions and comprehensive export controls, the U.S., Europe, Japan, South Korea, and possibly Southeast Asia would enact in retaliation for an invasion. Xi could kiss his "rejuvenation" campaign goodbye (although it should be noted that these measures would also have terrible repercussions on the U.S. and world economies, so none of this should be taken lightly).

Did Russias headaches in Ukraine serve as a come-to-Jesus moment for Xi? Maybe. But one suspects that a war occurring thousands of miles away is far less significant to Xis calculus than the PLAs ability actually to carry out a Taiwan invasion in the first place. In fact, Ukraine may not even be on the list.

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Daniel DePetris (@DanDePetris) is a contributor to theWashington Examiner'sBeltway Confidential blog. His opinions are his own.

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Hillary Clinton makes a thin Ukraine-Taiwan connection - Washington Examiner