Mediaboss Marketing

Washington Lets say its 99 percent certain that Hillary Rodham Clinton is running for president. At least thats the working assumption here inside the Beltway.

According to press reports citing advisers to Mrs. Clinton, she is now likely to make a formal announcement in the spring of 2015. That will allow her to clear the decks of paid speeches that are on her calendar into March. The later announcement also allows her inner circle to wait before making the necessary legal separation with the outside groups supporting her, such as Ready for Hillary.

I had thought last summer or early fall that she might have an exploratory committee going by now, but it appears she doesnt feel shes in any rush, since shell probably raise as much money as she needs to raise, says Democratic strategist Peter Fenn.

I think they want to structure the announcement absolutely right, Mr. Fenn adds. Thats especially the case after her summer book tour, which didnt go so smoothly starting with her comment that she and her husband, the former president, were dead broke when they left the White House in 2001. Sales of her memoir, Hard Choices, were flat.

Clinton doesnt need to announce early to boost her public profile. She already has near-universal name ID. But she doesnt want to wait so long that it looks too cute by half. The media drumbeat is likely to be deafening by the end of winter, if shes still officially pondering.

If she ends up not running, analysts expect her to let us know sooner than spring. A no-go decision would profoundly affect the shape of the Democratic field, and probably spur Vice President Joe Biden and possibly Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D) of Massachusetts to get in.

But chances are, Clinton is in. She has met with potential campaign managers. Top Obama adviser John Podesta is on tap to serve as campaign chair.

So how important is the timing of a formal announcement, really? And is there a correlation between the timing of a presidential campaign rollout and its ultimate success?

Each presidential cycle has its own dynamic. In the 1992 campaign, then-Gov. Bill Clinton of Arkansas waited until late October 1991 to announce his long-shot candidacy. But early 1991 was Operation Desert Storm, which left then-President George H. W. Bush looking unbeatable for reelection. The early field of Democratic challengers was weak. And the 800-pound gorilla, New York Gov. Mario Cuomo (D), eventually opted out. Mr. Clinton had his opening.

When then-Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York ran for president the first time, she announced on Jan. 20, 2007. Senate colleague Barack Obama followed soon after, on Feb. 10. Each had an incentive to get in early. Clinton needed to establish her credibility as a prospective commander in chief and to get a jump on the charismatic young senator from Illinois. Senator Obama needed to build on his early fame, after his star turn at the 2004 Democratic National Convention, and to add substance to the flash.

Continue reading here:
Hillary Clinton 2016: Does timing of announcement matter? (+video)