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Last Wednesday, in a coffeehouse in downtown Des Moines, a group of progressive activists launched an effort they hope will change the 2016 presidential campaign and in the process upend the Democratic Party.

The gathering in Iowa, organized by MoveOn.org and backed by Democracy for America, was the opening of a grass-roots push to draft Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) to run for president. Its broader effect was to escalate the ongoing debate among Democrats about the partys values, its message, its real constituencies and, most of all, how to win elections in the post-Obama era.

That there is such a debate over the direction of the Democratic Party is without question, and the differences have become louder in the wake of the drubbing the Democrats suffered in the midterm elections.

What is in question is the degree to which the rising populist movement on the left can materially shape the partys future. More specifically, absent some sign from Warren that she is going to run, can these Democrats successfully pressure Hillary Rodham Clinton, the partys dominant, prospective presidential candidate, to adopt much of their agenda?

To those who argue that the ideological splits within the party are overstated or mostly stylistic, the effort to draft Warren is a misguided enterprise. There really isnt a huge division in the party, said former Pennsylvania governor Ed Rendell (D). ... I dont think its anything like the tea party and the Republicans.

Rendell, who two years ago criticized President Obamas campaign for attacking Mitt Romney over his business record at Bain Capital, said he believed most Democrats shared Warrens opposition to a provision favorable to Wall Street in the recently passed spending bill that she attacked on the Senate floor.

Those trying to encourage Warren to run in 2016 argue a different case. Anna Galland, executive director of MoveOn.Org Civic Action, said there are important policy differences that need to be aired before Democrats pick their 2016 nominee.

She cited issues such as how the party should address income inequality, who populates positions of power in the executive branch a cause taken up by Warren when she opposed Obamas nomination of investment banker Antonio Weiss as treasury undersecretary and whether it is even possible for Democrats to have a discussion about expanding, rather than constraining, Social Security benefits. We are not debating style here, she said. We are debating substance.

The power of populism

Populist energy pulsates within the party to the point that Democrats cannot agree on whether it has become its dominant ideological strain. Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), who has championed a populist message as much as Warren, said: Its a good strong message, and its a message that shes carried very well, and its a message that a number of us have put out there for a number of years, and its catching on. ... I dont think its there yet.

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Democrats see rising populist sentiment. But can it shake Hillary Clinton?