Mediaboss Marketing

opinion By Sir Andy Chande

For the first time it is difficult, if not impossible, to predict the outcome of the next US presidential election. With much uncertainty and with too many Republican candidates, one could meet with surprises. Having said this I can share with the readers my thoughts on this important and topical subject.

Firstly, the latest poll among likely Republican primary voters shows Donald Trump leading with 27 per cent support, Marco Rubio at around 18 percent, and Ben Carson and ted Cruz tied at 16 percent each. Even though some other recent polls have put Cruz ahead of Rubio, mainstream media opinion seems to be coalescing around Rubio - if only to stop Cruz, who (as an evangelical Christian) has strong appeal to the party's 'base' but none to the New York crowd.

It is, however, important not to ignore Jeb Bush (who still has pots of money) and Chris Christie (who seems to be making a modest comeback, particularly in New Hampshire). Whatever the case, Trump's lead still seems pretty solid - no matter what he says, what he does, or whom he offends.

There is certainly a compelling case to be made for a Democratic victory. They have won the White House in five of the past seven elections; and carried the popular vote in five of the past six. Control of California with its 55 electoral votes give the Democrats a head start in the Electoral College, where 270 votes are needed for victory. And then there are the upsides of the Hillary Clinton phenomenon: name recognition; a huge funding network; no serious primary challengers; popular former President as her husband; a fractious Republican field; and the chance for another historic first, the election of America's first female President.

She may be old news but she still has fire in her belly. Issues such as Benghazi and the use of private email account whilst she held public office are not likely to present any problem nor how she performed as Obama's Secretary of State.

It has not been easy in the post-Second World War Presidency for the two term incumbent to pass on to his Party control of the White House. Franklin Roosevelt, of course, succeeded himself three times; and dying in office, was succeeded by his Vice-President Harry Truman. But since the Constitution was amended to restrict a president to two terms, only once has a two-term President managed to transfer White House control to a fellow Party member. George HW Bush succeeded Reagan and was ousted after a single term.

In 2012, Mitt Romney won 59 per cent of the white vote. He won every significant white sub-group - men and women; young and old; Protestant and Catholic - and yet still lost the election.

Obama won because he was able to capture the support of African-Americans, Hispanics and Asians and four out of every 10 white voters. The traditional pool from which Republicans draw their support - older whites, blue-collar whites, married couples and rural residents - is declining.

At the end of the day state of the economy and Obama's approval rating at the end of his term will both significantly matter.

Obama's approval rating last month was 48 per cent. His help with African-Americans, Hispanics and young voters will be needed by Hillary Clinton and will no doubt be forthcoming.

To sum up, uncertainty about the outcome in 2016 abounds. Unless the Republicans can find a candidate who has the ability to transform and who can broaden the GOP's appeal, Americans will have the first female President.

Continued here:
Africa: Will Hillary Become Another First in Stiff U.S ...