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Americans are not the only ones riveted by this years presidential election. People around the world have been glued to their computer and television screens awaiting the final outcome of the neck-and-neck race between President Donald Trump and former vice president Joe Biden.

Regardless of who wins the election, much is at stake for European foreign policy, says Maia Cross, the Edward W. Brooke professor of political science and international affairs at Northeastern.

Maia Cross is the Edward W. Brooke professor of political science and international affairs at Northeastern. Photo by Adam Glanzman/Northeastern University

Relations between the U.S. and the European Union under the Trump administration have soured on multiple issues, says Cross. Trump is said to have spoken privately about withdrawing from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and he may follow through if he wins a second term. He has pulled the U.S. out of the Paris climate agreement and has begun the process of withdrawing the U.S. from the World Health Organization.

Relationships between centrist governments and the U.S. would have a difficult time recovering from a second Trump term, says Cross. Still, she notes, there has been a silver lining for European nations: Theyve been forced to integrate better in the realms of security and defense, with the understanding that they can no longer rely on the U.S.

During Trumps tenure, longtime alliances have become strained while supporters of right-wing populist parties have come to regard him as an influential figure. A second Trump term could embolden populist leaders such as Frances Marine Le Pen and Slovenian prime minister Janez Jansa, who have already congratulated Trump on winning the election.

A Biden presidency, on the other hand, would improve transatlantic ties almost overnight, says Cross. Biden would push to repair severed alliances and the U.S. would return to its status as a globally oriented superpower that values allies and condemns authoritarian leaders who seek to undermine international norms. Nevertheless, European leaders may still regard the U.S. as unreliable over the long haul, says Cross, partly because the election has underscored the vast and growing gap between liberals and conservatives.

Even if Biden is elected and things quickly return to what was normal, there is a sense that regardless, they need to be able to stand on their own two feet and to act together as Europeans in order to exert influence on the world stage that favors a liberal democratic order, Cross says.

Under a Biden presidency, there would be more of an emphasis on trade agreements, says Cross, but its unclear whether Biden would favor progressive trade deals with Europe. That will depend on which version of Biden emerges once he takes office, says Cross. He could govern as a left-center figure akin to Hillary Clinton or President Obama, who supported a neo-liberal free trade approach, or as more of a progressive focused on protecting the environment and workers. The latter would align him more closely with European nations, says Cross.

A Biden presidency could also add a layer of complexity to the UKs post-Brexit future, giving the European Union a boost in its trade negotiations with the United Kingdom,says Cross.

If Biden is elected, that would make the U.K. feel a little bit more isolated from the U.S. and perhaps more willing to give in to what the EU is demanding on its side for the trade deal, she says. And I think overall that would actually smooth the process of Brexit, rather than having the U.K. just go off the cliff edge, which currently its poised to do.

Regardless of the elections outcome, Cross says, the European Union will be fine. History shows that the more the U.S. defines itself differently from European values, the stronger European integration becomes, she says.

The EU really values a strong transatlantic relationship, but if it is forced to go it alone, it actually does quite well.

For media inquiries, please contact Mike Woeste at m.woeste@northeastern.edu or 617-373-5718.

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What does the tense 2020 presidential election and its fallout mean for US-EU ties? - News@Northeastern