Mediaboss Marketing

Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen will compete in the second round of the French presidential elections on May 7. Polls now predict Macron, 39, is set to become the youngest ever president of France. The first round, held on April 23, clearly turned this into a battle of outsiders. While Le Pen represents the far-right Front National, Macron is the leader of a centrist movement En Marche, barely a year old. Both Macron and Le Pen outscored the mainstream left, the socialists and centre-right Republicans in the first round. But it is not just the face of the French presidency that is changing this year. Change is in the air in all of Europe and by the end of the year the political whos who of the continent may be totally altered. Also at stake is the future of European Union.

THE BIG DATES FRENCH PRESIDENTIAL POLLS: MAY 7 Emmanuel Macron, a former investment banker, is an outsider but only just. He was first an advisor to French president Francois Hollande and then a member of his cabinet, before striking out with his own centrist movement. He is for more open borders while Marine Le Pen has campaigned for stronger borders and a new referendum for exiting the European Union. Le Pen has also just resigned as the president of Front National to appeal the voters outside her party. The party was founded by her father Jean-Marie Le Pen. Le Pen senior had lost the presidency race to Jacques Chirac in a run-off in 2002. The polls to the French Parliament will follow in June.

BRITISH PARLIAMENTARY POLLS: JUNE 8 British Prime Minister Theresa May announced snap polls and got two-thirds of the Parliament to support her bid. Polling is on June 8. May hopes to use her high approval ratings with voters to come back with a stronger mandate in the House of Commons, than what was handed down to her by David Cameron, the former British PM, who had opposed Britains exit from the EU. May hopes a stronger mandate in Parliament will allow her greater negotiating powers and leeway with the EU, and feels that the Labour Party under Jeremy Corbyn poses no challenge for her.

Interestingly, while support for May has increased, British voters are now evenly split on Brexit. Also interesting to note will be how Scotland votes. Scotland had voted against Brexit in the referendum that led to Camerons exit and Mays elevation.

GERMAN FEDERAL ELECTIONS FOR THE BUNDESTAG: SEPTEMBER 24 German Chancellor Angela Merkel leads a grand coalition government negotiated between the Christian Social Union-Christian Democratic Union combine led by herself and the Social Democrats (SPD). The CSU-CDU has maintained a lead over the SPD in opinion polls since this government was formed in 2013, but the lead has narrowed this year after Martin Schulz took over the leadership of the SPD. Merkel has been the strongest leader of Europe in recent years as both the British and French leaderships have floundered and faced strong opposition from within their countries.

RUSSIA: THE BIG ONE The dozen-odd national elections that are being held in 2017 in Europe seem to be setting up for the big one in March-April 2018, when Vladimir Putin completes his current term. Putin has been president for two four-year terms before this and has also been prime minister in between. In 2012, rules were changed to increase the tenure of the office to six years and he is completing the first six-year term in 2018. In Russia, there is no bar on the number of terms a president may serve, as long as he/she does not serve more than two consecutive terms. Putin, at least, looks set for his second two-term presidency.

THE WINNERS SO FAR OF 2017 GERMANY Frank-Walter Steinmeier of the SPD was elected as the president of Germany on March 19, 2017, and won with 73% of the votes. The president is elected indirectly in a process similar to the election of the president of India.

HUNGARY Janos Ader was re-elected as the president of Hungary for a second term on March 13, 2017. While Hungary also follows an indirect process for electing its president, it will be interesting to watch as the country is debating whether to move to a semi-presidential system like in France with a more powerful president.

THE NETHERLANDS PM Mark Rutte is likely to retain power. Negotiations are on after March 15 elections to the Dutch Parliament saw a hung house.

BULGARIA Following the elections on March 26, a government has eluded Bulgaria, although former premier Boyko Borisov remains the frontrunner.

SERBIA The first round of presidential elections was held on April 2 and former premier Aleksandar Vucic secured enough votes to secure the presidency. However, there have been allegations of vote stealing and protests.

OTHER EUROPEAN POLLS IN 2017 SEPTEMBER 11 The 169-member Norwegian legislature, Storting, will be elected for a fresh four-year term. Interestingly, the Norwegian legislature cannot be dissolved before the end of its term.

OCTOBER 20-21 The 200-member Chamber of Deputies in the Czech Republic will see elections in October this year to choose a prime minister.

DECEMBER The Slovenian presidential elections are expected to be held in December; the dates are yet to be announced. The president is directly elected through a two-stage election process.

Note: Serbia and Russia are not a part of the EU

Read the original:
The future of European Union is at stake. Read why - Economic Times