‘The euro may ALREADY be lost’ Economists predict DOOMSDAY for European Union’s currency – Express.co.uk
European Union nations are plummeting further into debt, amid angry protests and calls for reform, but the Union continues to push for the joint monetary union.
Now, economists have suggested it is already too late to save the failing monetary union which will "almost surely fail".
Tuomas Malinen, CEO of GnS Economics, said: "Living standards in Italy and Greece are below the levels when they joined the euro.
"Finland is the only Nordic country using the euro and it is also the only Nordic country which has not yet recovered from the financial crash of 2008.
"There have been many proposals on how to fix the euro and the EMU, but they are politically unpopular and unrealistic."
Economists Mr Malinen, Dr Heikki Koskenkyl and Dr Peter Nyberg co-wrote the report 'The Euro May Already Be Lost', which has suggested there are solutions, but they are extreme.
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Eighteen years after the introduction of the euro, the economists argue it simply cannot work without major change.
Experts explained one of the main issues as "different growth paths" for member states.
As different countries develop at different speeds, the gap between success and failure widens and chances of financial support lessen.
If this occurs during an economic boom, "strengthening aggregate demand supports ailing fields of production" meaning crashes can be avoided.
But this is not the case in 2017 Europe.
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While the Eurozone faces crises, experts say, the costs of financing less competitive countries jumps.
This is what is known as an asymmetric shock.
It is suggested for survival, the eurozone needs a similar income transfer system to that used in the US during the Great Depression, where rich states made transfers to the poorer.
The economists' report states: "For permanent income transfers, you would need to change the Maastricht Treaty and ratify it in each member country or to negotiate several bilateral agreements.
"There is only a very small likelihood that these would go through, for example, in Finland and in the Netherlands."
Without public support for a federal union, others have come up with ways to save the euro.
The economists cite CEO of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) Klaus Regling, who believes a "combination of the banking and capital market union and a rainy day fund" could work.
Any financing through the European Central Bank (ECB), would need to be covered by European tax-payers later when it would become evident that weaker countries are unable to pay back their loans
Economists
The report states: "This fund would allegedly be used when asymmetric shocks occur.
"The fund would be financed jointly by all euro countries. However, because of the persistent differences in competitiveness, its transfers would become permanent.
"Only the most competitive members of the Eurozone would have sufficient income to finance the fund.
"Any financing through the European Central Bank (ECB), would need to be covered by European tax-payers later when it would become evident that weaker countries are unable to pay back their loans and when seigniorage revenues would be unable to cover the losses of the ECB."
In the opinion of Mr Maline, there are only two ways to fix the euro- either "a far-reaching political union or returning to the system described in the Maastricht Treaty, where member states would be responsible for their own economies only".
Under a full political union economic policy decision-making would be concentrated and "would require major structural changes in the Eurozone and its member countries".
Mr Malinen writes: "Tax and social policies would be unified, labor unions would be dismantled or unified as a European-wide system, a European debt relief system and banking union would be set up.
"These would ensure the flexibility of wages, prices, and labor agreements and guarantee convergence of competitiveness and living standards."
The other option, returning to the Maastricht Treaty, would see the winding down of the ESM and the European Financial Stability Facility - and likely Greece's exit from the European Union.
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Mr Malinen said: "The Eurozone is in a stalemate. A federal union would be needed to fix its problems, but there is no public support for it.
"Returning to national fiscal responsibility would lead to defaults and exits. Half-way solutions will prove insufficient but expensive and obfuscate the issues.
"Therefore, there may be no way to avert the partial or complete break-up of the Eurozone in the years to come.
"The fate of the euro may already have been sealed."
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'The euro may ALREADY be lost' Economists predict DOOMSDAY for European Union's currency - Express.co.uk
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