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DELEGATION OF THE EUROPEAN UNION TOETHIOPIA

Author: J.NAUDTS

Date: August 20th,2021

Classification:LIMITED

To: RitaLaranjinha

Subject: ETHIOPIA OverviewAugust 14 20: Both sides remain convinced that amilitary victory is withinreach

While fightingbetween TDF/TPLF and ENDF/Amhara Forces continued on severalfronts, OLA extended occupation of rural areas in OromiaRegion and gained control over some important roads. Thereseems to be small to no appetite to start negotiating atthis point: both sides are convinced that they will be ableto achieve a decisive military victory within the comingmonths. Eritrea reportedly sent reinforcements to WesternTigray and might be preparing a new offensive. There is nomore food available in Tigray and the humanitarian needs inother regions are also growing fast. The repression againstethnic Tigrayans in Addis Ababa and other parts of Ethiopiais continuing. PM Abiy Ahmed made a visit Asmara and toTurkey where he signed a military cooperationagreement.

1. Whilefighting between TDF/TPLF and ENDF/Amhara Forces continuedon several fronts, OLA managed to occupy large parts of therural areas in Oromia including gaining control over someimportant roads. It will require a lot of security resourcesfrom the Government of Ethiopia (GoE) to manage thegeographical expansion of OLA territory and to try to regaincontrol over the occupied areas.

2. Some analysts aresaying that Eritrea is preparing a counter-offensive fromthe North and from the West against TDF/TPLF in order toforce the Tigrayans to withdraw troops from the current wartheatres in Amhara. Other analysts point out that Eritreamight be preparing for a TDF/TPLF offensive into Eritreawhich is anticipated to start after the rainy season (by theend of September).

3. The GoE continues stressing thatno negotiation with TDF/TPLF will be possible, unless thelatter stops fighting and withdraw from Amhara region. Bothsides are convinced that they will be able to obtain adecisive military victory within the coming months, forcingthe other side to make important concessions in a possiblefuture negotiation.

4. GoE did not loosen restrictionson humanitarian access to Tigray. While continue pledgingunfettered humanitarian access, the reality created on theground is different as experienced by the Delegationwhile trying to obtain flight permissions for theHumanitarian Air Bridge to Mekelle.

5. On theinternational scene, PM Abiy Ahmed made a visit to Asmara onhis way to Turkey, where he signs a military cooperationagreement. In all likelihood the PM was discussingthe

procurement of drone technology which in theeyes of the Ethiopian PM could hand a decisive militaryadvantage to the ENDF. Unconfirmed reports of Turkish dronesto be deployed in Ethiopia soon followed thevisit.

6. During the week of August 14th-20th,fighting between TDF/TPLF and ENDF/Amhara forces continuedon at least four fronts in the Amhara Region: Debark (roadfrom Tigray border to Gondar), Sekota (road from Tigrayborder to Lalibela), Debre Tabor (road from Weldia to BaharDar) and Winchale (road from Weldia to Dessie). Severalclaims and counter-claims were made about the occupation oftowns, with the overall trend still indicating a furtheradvance of TDF/TPLF forces deeper into the AmharaRegion.

7. ENDF launched a counter-offensive from Afarinto Tigray, launching attacks on the TDF/TPLF Easternflank. Fighting was reported near Chifra (Afar) and Mehoni(Tigray).

8. Over the past days, Deputy Prime MinisterDemeke Mekonnen visited several places in Amhara close tothe front lines. He is the first member of the Governmentknown to visit areas with active fighting since the start ofthe conflict.

9. Several universities in Amhara Regionhave started organizing basic military training programs fortheir staff and students.

10. After the announcement of its alliancewith TDF/TPLF, more focus was put on the Oromo LiberationArmy (OLA). While initial assessments showed some doubts onthe OLAs numerical strength and military capacities, theyhave made some remarkable progress over the past weeks incontrolling several rural areas and in cutting importantroads. In Western Oromia, OLA controls several the ruralareas of the four Wellega zones, as well as the mainroads around the town of Nekemte. In Southern Oromia, OLAcontrols rural areas of the Guji Zone and managed toestablish check points on the main road between Addis Ababaand the Kenyan border. In the North Shoa Zone of NorthernOromia, OLA took control of rural areas near the town ofKuyu and also briefly occupied the town itself.

11. InSouth-Eastern Amhara, OLA is reported to have occupiedseveral rural districts near the town of Kemisse on the mainroad from Addis Ababa towards Dessie and Weldia. OLA is alsoreported to be have established itself around the gorge ofthe Blue Nile on the border between the Amhara and OromiaRegional States, and to have established a check point onthe main road between Addis Ababa and Bahar Dar near thebridge at Dejen.

12. While the OLA clearly does nothave the same level of organization, equipment and militaryexperience as the TDF/TPLF, the organization seems to beinggaining support among the rural population in large parts ofthe Oromia Region (as well as in areas of the Amhara Regionwith a strong presence of ethnic Oromo). It was reportedfrom some rural areas how OLA enters villages, calls villagemeetings in order to explain its objectives and policies tothe local

population and afterwards just asks theProsperity Party administrators and security forces to leavepeacefully which in some cases happened.

13. OnAugust 17th, one of the smaller opposition parties in theAfar Region, the Afar National Democratic Party, announcedthat it will join the TDF/TPLF-OLA coalition against theGovernment of PM Abiy Ahmed. It is reported that alsosmaller, relatively unknown movements such as theBenishangul Liberation Front and the Sidama Liberation Fronthave announced that they will join the TDF/TPLF-OLAalliance. One of the two factions in the Oromo Liberationfront (OLF), on the other hand, announced that it willcontinue to support PM Abiy Ahmed.

14.Eritrean troops are occupying a strip of territory inNorthern Tigray reaching from Adigrat to Shire and Badme.Eritrean troops are also present in Western Tigray, wherethey have taken up defensive positions with tanks andartillery around Adi Goshu and Humera, and possibly alsoalong the border with Sudan. Over the past days, it wasreported that Eritrea has sent

reinforcements toWestern Tigray. This could possibly have been done in orderto replace ENDF and Amhara units that have been re-deployedin Amhara Region.

15. PM Abiy Ahmed made a short visitto the Eritrean capital Asmara on August 17th no moredetails as the visit was not publicised.

16. Samantha Power, head of the U.S. Agencyfor International Development (USAID), issued a statement onAugust 19th highlighting that for the first time in ninemonths of war in Ethiopias Tigray region aid workerswill this week run out of food to deliver to millions ofpeople in the Region who are facing hunger: USAID and itspartners as well as other humanitarian organizations havedepleted their stores of food items warehoused inTigray.

17. In the meantime, Western Tigray currently occupied by Amhara, Eritrean and ENDF forces remains inaccessible to humanitarian actors.

18. Dueto active fighting, humanitarian needs in the Afar andAmhara Regions are increasing fast. Exact numbers are hardto come by, but it is known that several 100,000s of peoplebecome IDPs over the past weeks. USAID made public itsnew allocation of humanitarian aid to the tworegions.

19. The Telegraph Newspaper on August 17thpublished a detailed account including satellite pictures of TDF/TPLF attacks on Amhara civilians in severalvillages in the Kobo area between Alamata and Weldia thatwould have taken place during the first week of August.TDF/TPLF published a statement on August 19th to deny theseaccusations and to call for an independent UN-ledinvestigation.

20. The Agency for Civil SocietyOrganizations (ACSO) announced that it is investigating 11local and international organizations for alleged fraudulentactivities. No list of the CSOs under investigation waspublished. EU partners also reported that ACSO has stoppedthe

accreditation process for new organizations, whichmight create a challenge for some EU partner organizationsthat were in process to finalize their official registrationin Ethiopia.

21. During the past days, police in AddisAbaba carried out a new round of arrests of Tigrayans livingin the capital. Among those arrested was Hailu Kebede of theSalsay Woyane Part (a political party from Tigray opposed tothe TPLF), who met with EU Envoy Pekka Haavisto some monthsago (as well as with the EU EOM Assessment Team).

22.On August 18th, Human Rights Watch published a detailedaccount documenting the ethic profiling, unlawful arrestsand forced disappearances of ethnic Tigrayans in the capitalAddis Ababa.

23. Over the past weeks, there have beenunconfirmed reports of attacks on ethnic Tigrayans in sometowns of the Amhara Region reportedly even people whoonly have a very remote connection with the Tigray Regionhave also been targeted.

24. On August 18th, allEmbassies and International Organizations based in AddisAbaba received a Verbal Note from the Ministry of ForeignAffairs asking them to provide a detailed list of allsecurity staff employed to secure their premises/residences.Of particular concern the is request to all Embassies toprovide details on the ethnicity of their securitystaff. Several EU MS have already indicated that they arenot planning to provide the requested information to theEthiopian authorities this will be coordinated in thenext HoMs meeting on August 24th.

25. It looks increasinglyunlikely that the second part of the elections will takeplace on September 6th. The latest rumours from the NationalElectoral Board of Ethiopia indicate a postponement probablyto the end of September.

26. One of the areas wherethe elections still have to take place is the Somali Region.The Ogaden National liberation Front (ONLF) expressed theirfrustration over the NEBEs investigations into thecomplaints they filed together with other opposition partiesregarding the voter registration process in Somali Region.ONLF published a statement sayingthat

participating in the rigged elections in theSomali State will be meaningless.

27. Unconfirmedreports indicate that protests took place last week in theWestern Gambella Region against the ruling Prosperity Partyover the general call for mobilization that was launched bythe Government last week (each Region is apparently expectedto send a certain numbers of recruits to the fronts inNorthern Ethiopia).

28. On the invitation of the Turkish PresidentErdogan, PM Abiy Ahmed made an official visit to Turkey onAugust 17th 18th. On the occasion of the visit, Ethiopiaand Turkey announced the signature of diplomatic, social andeconomic agreements; as well as cooperation

agreementson water development and military cooperation. PresidentErdogan also stated that he attaches great importance to theresolution of the Tigray crisis and offered to mediate onthe border dispute between Ethiopia and Sudan.

29. Itis presumed that PM Abiy Ahmed asked Turkish support toobtain military technology, especially drones. Dronetechnology played a big role in the first phase of theconflict in November 2020, when TDF/TPLF was pushed back toremote mountainous areas of Tigray. The Ethiopian PMafterwards talked enthusiastically about this dronetechnology in the Ethiopian Parliament and seems convincedthat it could alter the course of the war once again.According to analyst, the Ethiopian PM would moresspecifically be interested in obtaining TurkishBayraktar-TB2 and ANKA-S drones.

30. It was reportedlast week that the Ethiopian authorities transferred themanagement of 6 on 11 Turkish schools in Ethiopia which usedto be run by the Gulen Movement to the pro GovernmentTurkeys Maarif Foundation. This is still controversial assome of the schools were actually lawfully owned by Germanprivate education companies.

31. Ethiopian State-mediacontinue to broadcast programs with anti-Western content,targeting specifically the US and theEU.

Sign-off Luca Zampetti ChargdAffaires

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