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NEW YORK - Attorney General Eric Holder announced Tuesday that for the first time since 1980, the federal inmate population has fallen, rather than risen.

At the end of the 2014 fiscal year next week, the federal prison population will show a drop to about 215, 000 inmates - about 4,800 fewer than a year ago.

The attorney general called the change a major breakthrough for advocates who have sought to shorten strict sentences for non-violent offenders.

Holder said the Justice Department estimates the federal prison population will continue to fall for the next two years. In 2015, it is projected to drop by 2,200 inmates, he said. In 2016, the population is projected to drop by 10,000 - the equivalent of six federal prisons.

"This is nothing less than historic," Holder said. "Now, these projected decreases won't result in any prison closures, because our system is operating at about 30% above capacity. But my hope is that we're witnessing the start of a trend that will only accelerate."

Holder spoke at New York University School of Law during a conference hosted by the Brennan Center for Justice, a non-partisan law and policy institute that works on issues such as campaign finance, racial justice in criminal law and constitutional protections in the fight against terrorism.

Since President Obama took office, Holder said, overall incarceration rates have fallen by roughly 10%.

"We can all be proud of the progress that's been made at reducing the crime rate over the past couple of decades - thanks to the tireless work of prosecutors and the bravery of law enforcement officials across America," Holder said. "But statistics have shown - and all of us have seen - that high incarceration rates and longer-than-necessary prison terms have not played a significant role in materially improving public safety, reducing crime or strengthening communities."

He said prosecutors should focus on reducing recidivism and violent crime rates to measure progress.

"It's time to shift away from old metrics and embrace a more contemporary, and more comprehensive, view of what constitutes success," Holder said. "This means developing a new system of assessment ?? because what gets measured is what gets funded, and what gets funded is what gets done."

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Holder: Federal inmate numbers drop first time since '80