Will Putin borrow from the Erdogan playbook? – UnHerd
Explainer
07:00
by Maximilian Hess
The autocrats trade notes. Credit: Getty
The aborted Prigozhin Putsch has rocked Russia, though it was called off before an alleged 25,000 soldiers from the Wagner Group could complete their march on Moscow. What this portends for Russias future or even that of its immediate protagonists remains unclear. Never before has Winston Churchills quote Kremlin political intrigues are comparable to a bulldog fight under a rug. An outsider only hears the growling, and when he sees the bones fly out from beneath it is obvious who won appeared so prescient.
The crisis was without precedent in Vladimir Putins rule. But a comparison can be found in the 2016 coup attempt against Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. That attempt similarly saw the rapid launch of fighting in urban areas and a battle for control of key cities. Yet Putin and Erdogans responses were remarkably different. The latter rapidly released a video calling for Turks to oppose the coup and the security forces that remained loyal to him refused to stand-down. At least 265 people were killed.
Already registered? Sign in
Erdogan showed that he was willing to fight to retain a monopoly on the use of force, and rapidly named his alleged opponents. Putin did not even mention Prigozhin in his belated response on the morning of 24th June. On the other hand, Erdogan made clear that he saw the movement led by US-based cleric Fethullah Glen as responsible for the coup against him, even though Glen had once been his close ally just as Prigozhin had been Putins.
Erdogan used it to justify a major crackdown and to further erode Turkeys democratic norms, helping him retain power to the present day. Putin long ago eliminated or jailed Russias democratic opposition, and what remained has largely fled abroad over the last year, but his meek initial response bodes poorly for the system that he has established. Prigozhin has proven that the Kremlin can be put under threat and that Putins promise of stability and prosperity for Russia after the tumult of the 1990s is rapidly evaporating.
Prigozhins threatened march prompted a level of panic amongst Muscovites and St. Petersburgers that the war against Ukraine had failed to cause: despite its wider horrors, they have thus far been immune to its impacts other than a handful of largely symbolic drone attacks. Most remarkable is that their fears were not eliminated by decisive action from Putin himself or the Russian security services with which he is so closely associated, but instead ostensibly by mediation from Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.
Why Prigozhin agreed to stand down remains unknown. He had, after all, been increasingly brazen in his challenges to Putins authority. On 23rd June the Wagner chief dismissed Russias casus belli for the full-scale of invasion of Ukraine and even acknowledged that the Kremlins allegations that enemy forces threatened genocide against Russian-speakers in eastern Ukraine were factually incorrect and poor propaganda. Though he said the war remained worth fighting, he alleged it was engineered by the Minister of Defence, Sergei Shoigu, as well as the siloviki oligarchs who wanted to pillage Ukraines national wealth as they had in occupied Donetsk and Luhansk since 2014.
Prigozhin is ostensibly bound for Belarus itself though Minsk has its own history of bad blood with Prigozhins forces. The Wagner boss was filmed smiling and in a celebratory mood as he left Rostov. His press service has announced that he will have more to say in due course. But Putins meek response has shattered his image of strength in Russia, just as his failing invasion of Ukraine has shattered his image of strength abroad.
Excerpt from:
Will Putin borrow from the Erdogan playbook? - UnHerd
- As Erdogan cracks down on opposition, is Turkey headed to early election? - Firstpost - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Erdogan Says Yerevan is More Flexible on So-Called Zangezur Corridor - Asbarez - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- 3 mayors arrested in southern Turkey as part of crackdown on opposition to Erdogan - The Times of Israel - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Erdogan expects F-35 deliveries during Trump presidency, rejects Greek concerns - Defence Industry Europe - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Erdogan meets with pro-Kurdish party delegation in 'historic' peace talks - Trkiye Today - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Turkeys pro-Kurdish party will meet with President Erdogan By Reuters - Investing.com - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Erdogan says asked Trump to intervene over shootings at Gaza aid centers - The Times of Israel - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Erdogan confident Turkey to be readmitted to F-35 programme - The New Arab - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Turkish Police Detain Three More Mayors From Party Opposed to Erdogan - WSJ - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Erdogan confident Turkey will receive F-35 jets under deal with Trump - eKathimerini.com - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Erdogan: Peace with Kurds to gain momentum as PKK starts laying down arms - kurdistan24.net - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Erdogan says PKK arms decision will accelerate peace process - Trkiye Today - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- PKK disarmament to boost peace with Kurds: Erdogan - New Age BD - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Erdogan and Sharif discuss trade expansion and Gaza crisis at Azerbaijan summit - Trkiye Today - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Armenias vision of unblocking anchored on sovereignty and national jurisdiction: Foreign Ministry responds to Erdogan - Armenpress - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Erdogan: I truly believe Khankendi will become a center of peace - Latest news from Azerbaijan - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- As Trump Pushes Syria Toward Israel, Erdogan Asks What's in It for Him - Haaretz - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Erdogan vows action against magazine over alleged religious insult - rudaw.net - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Erdogan pushes for F-35 deal with US in bid to strengthen Turkey's Air Force, expert says - The Jerusalem Post - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Turkey agrees to increase water flow to Iraq after meeting between Al-Mashhadani and Erdogan - Iraqi News - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- President Erdogan to visit Azerbaijan for Economic Cooperation Organization Summit - Trkiye Today - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- U.S. envoy expects Trump, Erdogan to resolve arms sanctions on Turkey this year -Anadolu - Reuters - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Erdogan reiterates gratitude to Azerbaijan for earthquake relief support - Latest news from Azerbaijan - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Erdogan hails 2024 as record year for exports, pledges continued growth in 2025 - TRT Global - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- US envoy expects Trump, Erdogan to resolve arms sanctions on Turkiye this year - Arab News - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- EUs aid to Turkey diverted to spying operations in Europe by Erdogan govt - Nordic Monitor - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- Trump, Erdogan hold first meeting at NATO as ties warm: What to know - AL-Monitor - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- President Erdogan condemns terrorist attack in Pakistan near Afghan border - Trkiye Today - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- Erdogan Claims Progress in Bid to Secure F-35 Fighter Jet From United States - Foundation for Defense of Democracies - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- Turkey hopes for progress on F-35 jets after Trump meeting, Erdogan says - The Times of Israel - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- Erdogan says Trump would join Ukraine peace talks in Turkey if Putin attends - Reuters - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- World Juniors Qualifier Talya Erdogan is Headed to George Washington University for 2025 - SwimSwam - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- Turkeys Erdogan says positive developments on Eurofighter jets - eKathimerini.com - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- Erdogan with Trump after five years: why can they get along better now? - Yetkin Report - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- Trkiye in talks with the US to rejoin F-35 programme, says Erdogan - TRT Global - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- Erdogan says Turkey hopes for progress on F-35s after Trump meeting - Investing.com - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- Erdogan said that the Russian S-400 air defense systems are not enough to protect Turkey - EADaily - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- Erdogan says wont let terror drag Syria back to instability - arabnews.jp - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- Erdogan to attend June 2425 NATO summit in The Hague as allies mull defense spending hike - Trkiye Today - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- Erdogan says Israel-Iran war near point of no return, vows to boost missile production - The Times of Israel - June 22nd, 2025 [June 22nd, 2025]
- Armenian prime minister discusses reconciliation with Erdogan in landmark Turkey visit - AP News - June 22nd, 2025 [June 22nd, 2025]
- Armenian prime minister to meet Erdogan in rare visit to Turkey aimed at mending ties - ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos - June 22nd, 2025 [June 22nd, 2025]
- Erdogan vows to boost Turkeys missile production as Israel-Iran war escalates - AP News - June 22nd, 2025 [June 22nd, 2025]
- Erdogan tells Iranian FM talks are only way to settle nuclear dispute - The Times of Israel - June 22nd, 2025 [June 22nd, 2025]
- Erdogan says he's 'optimistic victory will be Iran's' in blistering speech as strikes continue - MSN - June 22nd, 2025 [June 22nd, 2025]
- Turkish President Erdogan warns against 'new Sykes-Picot order' in the Middle East - Yahoo - June 22nd, 2025 [June 22nd, 2025]
- Erdogan: Iran-Israel conflict reaching point of no return - The Times of Israel - June 22nd, 2025 [June 22nd, 2025]
- Pashinyan-Erdogan meeting may be a game-changer in Armenia-Turkish relations - Commonspace.eu - June 22nd, 2025 [June 22nd, 2025]
- Erdogan: Israeli strikes on Iran aimed at derailing nuclear talks with US - The Times of Israel - June 22nd, 2025 [June 22nd, 2025]
- UNRWA to open office in Trkiye: Erdogan - TRT Global - June 22nd, 2025 [June 22nd, 2025]
- Erdogan, Trump tried to broker secret US-Iran talks in Istanbul: Report - Trkiye Today - June 22nd, 2025 [June 22nd, 2025]
- Netanyahu government is the 'greatest obstacle' in regional peace: Erdogan - TRT Global - June 22nd, 2025 [June 22nd, 2025]
- Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan speaks during the 51st Session of the Council of Foreign Ministers of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation in... - June 22nd, 2025 [June 22nd, 2025]
- Turkeys Erdogan says Israel attacks aimed to sabotage Iran nuclear talks By Reuters - Investing.com - June 22nd, 2025 [June 22nd, 2025]
- President Sheikh Mohamed and Turkey's Erdogan call for dialogue as conflict rages between Israel and Iran - thenationalnews.com - June 20th, 2025 [June 20th, 2025]
- Erdogan, Aliyev Rejoice Over Ethnic Cleansing of Artsakh - Asbarez - June 20th, 2025 [June 20th, 2025]
- Erdogan Attempts to Rally the Muslim World Against Israel - Foundation for Defense of Democracies - June 20th, 2025 [June 20th, 2025]
- Erdogan says Iran has 'legitimate right to defend itself against Israel's thuggery,' compares Netanyahu to Hitler - The Times of Israel - June 20th, 2025 [June 20th, 2025]
- Putin, Erdogan condemn Israeli actions against Iran - The Times of Israel - June 20th, 2025 [June 20th, 2025]
- Erdogan says Iran has 'legitimate and legal right' to self-defence against Israel - Middle East Eye - June 20th, 2025 [June 20th, 2025]
- Saar slams oppressive and imperialist Erdogan for defending Iran, comparing PM to Hitler - The Times of Israel - June 20th, 2025 [June 20th, 2025]
- Trkiye will never forget Azerbaijani people's solidarity after earthquakes: Erdogan - TRT Global - June 20th, 2025 [June 20th, 2025]
- Erdogan slams Israels banditry after Iran strikes - The Times of Israel - June 14th, 2025 [June 14th, 2025]
- Israeli disinformation campaign on President Erdogan's daughter refuted by Trkiye - Trkiye Today - June 14th, 2025 [June 14th, 2025]
- Erdogan steers Turkey toward end of secularism with new constitution draft - The Arab Weekly - June 14th, 2025 [June 14th, 2025]
- Turkey to export 48 fighter jets to Indonesia: Erdogan - The Economic Times - June 14th, 2025 [June 14th, 2025]
- Erdogan: The international community must say stop to Israeli banditry - NEWS.am - June 14th, 2025 [June 14th, 2025]
- Plans afoot for an Erdogan trip to the White House - eKathimerini.com - June 10th, 2025 [June 10th, 2025]
- Erdogan proposes Putin-Zelensky meeting in Turkey, with Trump's participation - Gazeta Express - June 7th, 2025 [June 7th, 2025]
- Turkish President Erdogan greets the nation on Eid al Adha - TRT Global - June 7th, 2025 [June 7th, 2025]
- Turkey becoming one of main centers of peace diplomacy - Erdogan - Ukrinform - June 7th, 2025 [June 7th, 2025]
- Appeasing Erdogan, losing the Med - eKathimerini.com - June 7th, 2025 [June 7th, 2025]
- President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is pushing for Turkish women to have more babies - IslanderNews.com - June 7th, 2025 [June 7th, 2025]
- Turkey's Erdogan appoints legal team to draft new constitution, sparking fears of extended rule - AP News - May 28th, 2025 [May 28th, 2025]
- Opinion | Erdogan Might Have Finally Gone Too Far - The New York Times - May 28th, 2025 [May 28th, 2025]
- Nuclear bomb, dream of becoming Muslim world leader, India exposed Turkey's thorium plan, Erdogan angry due t - India.Com - May 28th, 2025 [May 28th, 2025]
- Erdogan tells Sharaa Turkey welcomes lifting of Syria sanctions - Reuters - May 28th, 2025 [May 28th, 2025]
- Turkey's Erdogan says he has 'no interest in being re-elected' - thenationalnews.com - May 28th, 2025 [May 28th, 2025]
- Erdogan: Lachin airport will greatly contribute to regional development, global integration - Latest news from Azerbaijan - May 28th, 2025 [May 28th, 2025]
- Turkeys Erdogan reiterates pledge not to run for another term - Middle East Monitor - May 28th, 2025 [May 28th, 2025]