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Meral Aksener (C) stands before security barriers as police seal off a hotel, preventing Nationalist Action Party dissidents from holding a party congress, Ankara, Turkey, May 15, 2016.(photo byREUTERS/Tumay Berkin)

Author:Cengiz andar Posted August 16, 2017

Turkeys ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) marked its 16th anniversarythis week, and its historyhas been an amazing story. A party that was crafted by the disheartened of banned political Islamist parties and who called themselves the movement of the virtuous spent 15 of those 16 years as the partyin power the longestperiod for any party in recent Turkish history.

Pompous celebrations and ceremonies were held to underscore the might of its leader, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Some 6,000 people were invited to the mainceremony.

One of the expected guests was the co-leader of the movement of the virtuous, former President Abdullah Gul. Yet he did not attend. Infact, his absence is oneindicator ofhow the birthday party turned out to be bland.

Even before the soulless celebrations, there was talk in AKP quarters about the fatigueofthe ruling party. Erdogans return to the chairmanshipwasn't enoughto rejuvenate the party. Erdogan himself admits the party apparatus has lost its vigor.

Those who are tired should [give up] their positions to new ones, Erdogan said at an AKPmeeting in July in Ankara. Some party members took his remarksas a signal of drastic change in the works, further increasing the unease within their ranks.

As a result, Erdogan tried to soothe the atmosphere withone of his speeches on the eve of theanniversary. Upcoming changes in the party should not be considered a purge, but a renewal, Erdogan said at anAug. 14 public rally in Ankara.

Speaking at the anniversary ceremony, Prime Minister Binali Yildirim said he hopes the metal fatigue being felt among the partys ranks istemporary.For some time now, the phrase has been used to define the AKP's performance.

Paradoxically, Erdogans strong grip over the party could be sapping its energy. Neither he nor Yildirim rejects that idea.

Gunter Seifert, an expert on Turkey for the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), attributes the weariness tothe party's devolution into a cheerleading squad for the president. The AKPhas "reduced itself to a propaganda machine and lost its power in shaping politics," he told Germany'sDeutsche Welle media company.

According to a relatively influential and sometimes mildly critical Islamist columnist,Ahmet Tasgetiren of the pro-government daily Star, the reason for the lethargy afflicting "the party of the virtuous" is its flaggingvirtue.

A new movement of the virtuous is needed, Tasgetiren wrote in an Aug. 15 column.

It's almost impossible to expect the AKP to make thatkind of shiftagainst Erdogan. The only person with an AKP backgroundwho could initiate such a change is Gul, but given his overcautious style and unwillingness to confront Erdogan directly and openly, it would be afar-fetched hope that he could revive the party.

Those hopefuls who want to see Erdogan removed from powerone day seem to be converging around Meral Aksener. More and more she is emerging as a wild card in Turkish politics.

Aksener was interior minister brieflyduring the late 1990s and served a long stint asa deputy speaker of parliamentduring the AKP's reign. During the 1990s she was a parliament member representinga center-right party. Morerecently, she was a representative of the Nationalist ActionParty (MHP), anultranationalist party also known as the Gray Wolves. However, she rejected the new line of MHP leader Devlet Bahceli, who has transformed theparty into an Erdogan appendage. Among a group of party elders, she rose to prominence in 2016 as a Bahceli challenger,but the judicialsystem under Erdogan's control blocked her way. She then left the MHPactually, she was expelled from the party with a decision contested legally to launch a new party, attracting a considerable MHP constituency.

Her efforts to initiate thenew political party designed toattract all those despairing of Erdogan mainly on the right side of the political spectrum gained momentum rapidly. She is expected to officially introduce the partyin October or possibly evennext month.

There are rumors thatin addition to those who left the MHP, a number of AKP figures even parliament members mightjoin Akseners party. Akseners teamhas been saying the publicwill be surprised.

One potentially major obstacle, among many others on her way, is how Erdogan couldreact to her moves. Also, how will Aksenerenlist Kurdish supportgiven that her team includesnationalists and anti-Kurdish figures?If she can find the formula to gaining the Kurds' support, she could be the figure most likely to unseat Erdogan.

There are many questions.Elections arescheduled for 2019, but whathappens if Erdogan decidesto hold early elections in 2018 before she canbuild a sufficient party structure?

Those who wantErdogan's era to endcould pin their hopes on Aksener's charm and stamina, aided bythe AKPs metal fatigue, which seems to have no remedies and therefore maybe fatal.

Read More: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/08/turkey-erdogan-himself-may-be-reason-for-exhaustion-in-akp.html

Originally posted here:
This woman might be the wild card who stops Erdogan - Al-Monitor