Standoff in Eastern Mediterranean: Erdogan is barking up the wrong tree – The Jerusalem Post
Turkeys newly reelected president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has on a visit to northern Cyprus demanded the recognition of the breakaway state as a condition for negotiations on the future of the island. In this case, he is barking up the wrong tree.
Since 1964, when UN peacekeeping forces (UNFICYP) were deployed on the island to prevent fighting between the two population groups the Greek and Turkish Cypriots this has developed into one of the worlds longest standing conflicts.
In 1974 the conflict escalated when Turkish troops occupied the northern third of the island in accordance with the 1960 Treaty of Guarantee between Cyprus, Greece, Turkey and the United Kingdom, which allowed Turkey to intervene to prevent the union of Cyprus with any other state.
In July, the Cypriot president Archbishop Makarios was overthrown in a coup by a former EOKA gunman, Nicos Sampson, who, backed by the military junta in Athens, intended to declare enosis (union) with Greece. However, Turkeys occupation led to partition and finally, in 1983, the unilateral declaration of the TRNC (Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus), which is only recognized by Turkey.
From 1975, reunification talks began under the aegis of the UN with the declared aim of establishing a bizonal, bicommunal federation. A notable attempt in 2004, based on the Annan Plan for reunification, was accepted by 65% of Turkish Cypriots, but rejected by 76% of the Greek Cypriots. A week later, the rump state, designated as the Republic of Cyprus, found a safe harbor in the European Union.
The latest attempt, in what UN Secretary-General Antnio Guterres has called a horizon of endless process without result, foundered at Crans-Montana in Switzerland in 2017. Guterres was undoubtedly correct in his belief that a historic opportunity had been missed, as Ersin Tatar was elected Turkish Cypriot leader instead of the pro-federal Mustaf Akinci in October 2020.
Tatar, a hardliner and backed by Ankara, goes in for a two-state solution. Failing this, annexation is a third option, which is not unlikely, given that northern Cyprus is de facto Turkeys 82nd province.
However, the game changer was the discovery of vast gas and oil reserves in the Levant Basin in 2010. Cyprus had already delimited its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and concluded agreements with Egypt, Lebanon and Israel. Turkey, which is not a signatory to UNCLOS (United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea), insists that the extent of its continental shelf and shoreline overrides this principle.
The fact that Cyprus has awarded concessions to foreign companies for hydrocarbon exploration in its EEZ has led to continual conflict with Turkey, not least because it clashes with Turkeys Blue Homeland maritime doctrine.
One response has been the trilateral cooperation between Greece, Cyprus and Israel, which has lasted a decade and includes a military dimension.
On another level, Egypt, whose Zohr gas field is the largest in the Mediterranean, in 2019 founded the East Mediterranean Gas Forum, which includes Israel, Cyprus, Greece, France, Italy, Jordan and the Palestinian Authority, but not Turkey. The US and the EU are observers.
ACCORDING TO former US ambassador to Turkey, Eric Edelman, Erdogan believes he can threaten his way in. On the other hand, also in 2019, Congress passed the Eastern Mediterranean Security and Energy Partnership Act in support of Greece as a valuable NATO member, Israel as a steadfast ally and Cyprus as a key strategic partner.
In addition, in October 2021 the US amended its MDCA (Mutual Defense and Cooperation Agreement) with Greece to include the port of Alexandroupolis as a key strategic hub.
In 2014, when Turkish professor Ahmet Davutoglu, the architect of Turkeys neo-Ottoman foreign policy, was appointed prime minister, he included in his manifesto a vision of Turkey as an energy corridor.
In 2009, the European Commission agreed on the construction of a Southern Gas Corridor to diversify its energy supply by bringing gas resources from the Caspian Sea to European markets. Commissioned at the end of 2020, it comprises the South Caucasus Pipeline (SCP) from the Shah Deniz field in Azerbaijan, the Trans-Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP) through Turkey and Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) to Italy.
Turkey has tried to lure Israel to commit to a pipeline from Israels Leviathan field to Ceyhan in southern Turkey, but so far Israel has resisted this siren call. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is trying to arrange a meeting with Erdogan, but Erdogan will only meet with him if he delivers news on gas cooperation.
Turkey is also dependent on Russian gas through the Blue Stream and TurkStream pipelines, and Russia has proposed to Turkey that it acts as an energy hub for Russian gas to Europe after the Nord Stream blasts.
In January 2022 a non-paper from the US State Department put the kibosh on Greece, Cyprus and Israels plans to construct a 1,900 km. EastMed pipeline to transport gas from the Levant Basin via Greece to Europe. One of the reasons given for canceling the project was creating tensions in the region i.e. dont upset Turkey.
Against a background of a thaw in relations between Turkey and Egypt, due consideration must be paid to Egypt as a gas hub and the founder of the East Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF). For example, a memorandum of understanding (MOU) was signed in June last year between the EU, Egypt and Israel to export Israeli gas to Europe via two Egyptian LNG plants.
By the same token, there is no logical reason why Cyprus should not serve as the conduit for the transport of Eastern Mediterranean gas via Turkey to Europe. As Egypts ambassador to the United States, Motaz Zahran, has explained the EMGF is the perfect example of a regional approach to address the Israeli-Palestinian issue and regional economic integration.
The same could apply to the Cyprus issue and the standoff in Eastern Med.
In the process, a number of camels will have to be swallowed, but according to Hatem Zadek, a professor at Helwan University, Mediterranean gas can fix what politics has spoiled.
The writer is an international adviser at RIEAS (Research Institute for European and American Studies) in Athens.
Read the rest here:
Standoff in Eastern Mediterranean: Erdogan is barking up the wrong tree - The Jerusalem Post
- Erdogan slams Israels banditry after Iran strikes - The Times of Israel - June 14th, 2025 [June 14th, 2025]
- Israeli disinformation campaign on President Erdogan's daughter refuted by Trkiye - Trkiye Today - June 14th, 2025 [June 14th, 2025]
- Erdogan steers Turkey toward end of secularism with new constitution draft - The Arab Weekly - June 14th, 2025 [June 14th, 2025]
- Turkey to export 48 fighter jets to Indonesia: Erdogan - The Economic Times - June 14th, 2025 [June 14th, 2025]
- Erdogan: The international community must say stop to Israeli banditry - NEWS.am - June 14th, 2025 [June 14th, 2025]
- Plans afoot for an Erdogan trip to the White House - eKathimerini.com - June 10th, 2025 [June 10th, 2025]
- Erdogan proposes Putin-Zelensky meeting in Turkey, with Trump's participation - Gazeta Express - June 7th, 2025 [June 7th, 2025]
- Turkish President Erdogan greets the nation on Eid al Adha - TRT Global - June 7th, 2025 [June 7th, 2025]
- Turkey becoming one of main centers of peace diplomacy - Erdogan - Ukrinform - June 7th, 2025 [June 7th, 2025]
- Appeasing Erdogan, losing the Med - eKathimerini.com - June 7th, 2025 [June 7th, 2025]
- President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is pushing for Turkish women to have more babies - IslanderNews.com - June 7th, 2025 [June 7th, 2025]
- Turkey's Erdogan appoints legal team to draft new constitution, sparking fears of extended rule - AP News - May 28th, 2025 [May 28th, 2025]
- Opinion | Erdogan Might Have Finally Gone Too Far - The New York Times - May 28th, 2025 [May 28th, 2025]
- Nuclear bomb, dream of becoming Muslim world leader, India exposed Turkey's thorium plan, Erdogan angry due t - India.Com - May 28th, 2025 [May 28th, 2025]
- Erdogan tells Sharaa Turkey welcomes lifting of Syria sanctions - Reuters - May 28th, 2025 [May 28th, 2025]
- Turkey's Erdogan says he has 'no interest in being re-elected' - thenationalnews.com - May 28th, 2025 [May 28th, 2025]
- Erdogan: Lachin airport will greatly contribute to regional development, global integration - Latest news from Azerbaijan - May 28th, 2025 [May 28th, 2025]
- Turkeys Erdogan reiterates pledge not to run for another term - Middle East Monitor - May 28th, 2025 [May 28th, 2025]
- Turkish president Erdogan arrives in Lachin to attend airport opening - AzerNews - May 28th, 2025 [May 28th, 2025]
- Trkiye-Syria cooperation will grow in all areas: Turkish President Erdogan tells Syrian counterpart - Anadolu Ajans - May 28th, 2025 [May 28th, 2025]
- With Erdogan in Paks corner, how should India deal with Turkiye? - Times of India - May 19th, 2025 [May 19th, 2025]
- Ukraine's Zelenskiy arrives in Turkey for talks with Erdogan - Reuters - May 19th, 2025 [May 19th, 2025]
- Erdogan made it clear to Macron that the "trick will not work" with him Pushkov - EADaily - May 19th, 2025 [May 19th, 2025]
- Turkey frees a Swedish journalist who was convicted for insulting President Erdogan - AP News - May 19th, 2025 [May 19th, 2025]
- Erdogan: Trkiye-US partnership key to global and regional stability - TRT Global - May 19th, 2025 [May 19th, 2025]
- Turkey's Erdogan hopes to achieve definitive result from Russia-Ukraine peace talks - Deccan Herald - May 19th, 2025 [May 19th, 2025]
- Erdogan's global peacemaker spotlight hides tumult within Turkey - Reuters - May 15th, 2025 [May 15th, 2025]
- How Erdogan went from pariah to peacemaker - The Times - May 15th, 2025 [May 15th, 2025]
- Column | Trumps Middle East trip makes it a big week for Turkeys Erdogan - The Washington Post - May 15th, 2025 [May 15th, 2025]
- See Zelensky arrive in Ankara to meet with Erdogan - CNN - May 15th, 2025 [May 15th, 2025]
- Why Erdogan cant crush the Kurds They have always moved with the times - UnHerd - May 15th, 2025 [May 15th, 2025]
- Erdogan's daughter not owner, we are not Turkish: Aviation firm on losing clearance - India Today - May 15th, 2025 [May 15th, 2025]
- Erdogan and bin Salman said to join Trumps meeting with Syrias al-Sharaa - The Times of Israel - May 15th, 2025 [May 15th, 2025]
- Erdogan tells Zelenskiy that Turkey to host him, Putin when they are ready - Reuters - May 15th, 2025 [May 15th, 2025]
- Erdogan Basks In Glory As PKK Disbands, U.S. Lifts Sanctions On Syria & Pakistan Thanks Turkish President For Peace In S.Asia - EurAsian Times - May 15th, 2025 [May 15th, 2025]
- Erdogan bolsters Turkeys position as an indispensable international mediator - Monocle - May 15th, 2025 [May 15th, 2025]
- Erdogan tells Zelenskiy that Turkey to host him, Putin when they are ready - Global Banking | Finance | Review - May 15th, 2025 [May 15th, 2025]
- Zelenskyy arrives in Turkey for talks with Erdogan - nhk.or.jp - May 15th, 2025 [May 15th, 2025]
- Zelenskyy arrives in Ankara for talks with Erdogan ahead of Russia-Ukraine meeting - Trkiye Today - May 15th, 2025 [May 15th, 2025]
- Zelensky has arrived in Ankara. There he will meet with Turkish President Erdogan - - May 15th, 2025 [May 15th, 2025]
- Trump says he had a productive call with Turkey's Erdogan, visits planned - Reuters - May 5th, 2025 [May 5th, 2025]
- Trump, Erdogan discuss Gaza, Syria in good and productive phone conversation - The Times of Israel - May 5th, 2025 [May 5th, 2025]
- Turkey's Erdogan tells Trump to end the humanitarian crisis in Gaza - Middle East Eye - May 5th, 2025 [May 5th, 2025]
- Trump has productive call with Erdogan, visits planned - eKathimerini.com - May 5th, 2025 [May 5th, 2025]
- COMMENT: Turkish oppositions efforts to bring down Erdogan regime are just not working - bne IntelliNews - May 5th, 2025 [May 5th, 2025]
- We had a good talk: Trump is going to involve Erdogan in the peace process in Ukraine - EADaily - May 5th, 2025 [May 5th, 2025]
- Trump says he had a productive call with Turkey's Erdogan, visits planned - Colorado Springs Gazette - May 5th, 2025 [May 5th, 2025]
- Erdogan, Trump discuss Gaza crisis, defense ties, and Syria stability in phone call - Trkiye Today - May 5th, 2025 [May 5th, 2025]
- Mitsotakis-Erdogan Meeting Date to Be Finalized in Antalya - tovima.com - May 5th, 2025 [May 5th, 2025]
- Trump and Erdogan discuss Ukraine war, Syria, and Gaza issues - Investing.com - May 5th, 2025 [May 5th, 2025]
- Trump says he had a productive call with Turkey's Erdogan, visits planned - marketscreener.com - May 5th, 2025 [May 5th, 2025]
- Erdogan: Turkish occupation of northern Cyprus will last for centuries - eKathimerini.com - May 5th, 2025 [May 5th, 2025]
- Turkish Cypriots protest hijab law as Erdogan visits amid fears of Islamisation and corruption cover-ups - Middle East Monitor - May 5th, 2025 [May 5th, 2025]
- Erdogan says Turkeys presence on Cyprus will last for centuries - eKathimerini.com - May 5th, 2025 [May 5th, 2025]
- Erdogan, Meloni vow to bolster Italy-Turkey ties - The New Arab - May 5th, 2025 [May 5th, 2025]
- Turkeys Rate Path in Limbo in Wake of Erdogan Rivals Arrest - Bloomberg.com - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- For Turkish youths, anti-Erdogan protests have stirred an awakening - The Washington Post - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- Turkish court rejects appeal seeking release of key Erdogan rival from jail - AP News - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- Erdogan: Whoever obstructs Syrias path to peace, stability will find us standing with Damascus - Middle East Monitor - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- Erdogan slams silence of Western media on Gaza - breakingthenews.net - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- Erdogan: Gaza reduced to 50 million tons of debris - breakingthenews.net - April 18th, 2025 [April 18th, 2025]
- Trump says he can mediate between Israel and Turkey, has a great relationship with Erdogan - The Times of Israel - April 8th, 2025 [April 8th, 2025]
- Turkey's opposition vows to sustain protests over jailing of Erdogan's main rival - Reuters - April 8th, 2025 [April 8th, 2025]
- Arrest of Erdogan Rival Triggered Record Exit from Turkey Bonds - Bloomberg - April 8th, 2025 [April 8th, 2025]
- Trump publicly disappoints Netanyahu, stresses very good relationship with Erdogan - Trkiye Today - April 8th, 2025 [April 8th, 2025]
- Trump gave his backing to Erdogan's arrest of main political rival Imamoglu, claims opposition leader - bne IntelliNews - April 8th, 2025 [April 8th, 2025]
- Anti-Erdogan protests: What lies ahead for Turkey? - DW - April 5th, 2025 [April 5th, 2025]
- Erdogan expects Trump to turn positive rhetoric into action amid US tariff issues - TRT World - April 5th, 2025 [April 5th, 2025]
- Turkeys protests over the arrest of an Erdogan rival take a new angle: Boycott shopping - AP News - April 3rd, 2025 [April 3rd, 2025]
- Next US ambassador to Turkey urges Erdogan not to clash with Trump - eKathimerini.com - April 3rd, 2025 [April 3rd, 2025]
- Echoing Hamas, Erdogan reportedly calls for Israel's destruction amid push to rekindle ties with Trump - Fox News - April 3rd, 2025 [April 3rd, 2025]
- Turkish opposition stages rally, announces campaign to defeat Erdogan - The Washington Post - April 3rd, 2025 [April 3rd, 2025]
- Erdogan condemns Israel in Eid al-Fitr speech, calls for global action on Gaza - eKathimerini.com - April 3rd, 2025 [April 3rd, 2025]
- Hundreds of thousands, maybe millions, gather at Istanbul rally to protest against Erdogan - The Times of Israel - April 3rd, 2025 [April 3rd, 2025]
- Erdogan accuses the opposition of wrecking Turkey's economy during protests over mayor's jailing - The Associated Press - March 28th, 2025 [March 28th, 2025]
- 'The police are coming to kill us': Inside Turkey's uprising against Erdogan - Israel Hayom - March 28th, 2025 [March 28th, 2025]
- Erdogan was emboldened to jail Istanbul mayor by global turmoil, analysts say - The Associated Press - March 28th, 2025 [March 28th, 2025]
- Erdogan Tells Putin Cooperation With Russia Key to Resolving Regional Conflicts - The Moscow Times - March 28th, 2025 [March 28th, 2025]
- Turkey detains journalists as protests grow over the jailing of key Erdogan rival - The Associated Press - March 28th, 2025 [March 28th, 2025]
- Erdogan Bets World Will Turn a Blind Eye to Turmoil in Turkey - Bloomberg - March 28th, 2025 [March 28th, 2025]