Mediaboss Marketing

As Turks prepare to vote in a referendum that would greatly expand the powers of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the advocates of the change are brimming with confidence while opponents say they dont know how to prevent the advent of one-man rule.

The package of 18 constitutional amendments up for a vote Sunday would replace parliamentary democracy with a presidential government that puts most of the levers of power in Erdogans hands. Lawmakers would have little influence on key decisions, and the judiciary would be even more subservient than it is currently.

And Erdogan, already in power for 15 years, would be able to run for two more five-year terms when his current term ends in 2019.

Eskisehir, an industrial city of 800,000, is located in central Anatolia, the heartland for Erdogans ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), but its controlled by the opposition Republican Peoples Party (CHP). Theres been a spirited, yet civil, debate here, judging from the booths set up by yes and no backers in the city center, some next to each other.

But in a cafe near the university, the mood was somber this week as opponents of the changes explained why they were sitting around tables playing Rummikub, a Turkish board game, rather than campaigning door-to-door for their cause.

A lot has to do with the fact Erdogan scheduled the referendum during a state of emergency dating from last Julys abortive military coup that Erdogan blames on a Muslim cleric in U.S. exile.

Everyone is scared, said a student who asked to be identified only as Ismet, 23. If we went out on the streets, wed wind up in prison. He said he cant even post his views on Facebook, fearing the authorities would come down hard on his family.

But he also blamed the opposition organizers. Even among referendum opponents, Erdogan is seen as a real leader compared to Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the CHP leader.

We are talking to the yes people and trying to persuade them, said Yunus, 33, who also feared reprisal if he gave his full name. But he added that CHP leadership should be much more active, much more effective.

The two men and two young women, all medical students, agreed that Turkey is on the eve of a dictatorship, with no checks and balances on executive power. They said it could be like Germany in 1933, when Adolf Hitler rose to power, but they said they didnt know what they could do about it.

Utko Cakirozer, a former editor of the opposition daily Cumhuriyet, whos now one of six parliament members from Eskisehir, had gone to the In Heavy Demand coffee house to cheer on the no campaign. (Cakirozer was a Daniel Pearl fellow at the Los Angeles Times in 2008.)

There is a psychological problem, he said in an interview. People believe no matter whether they vote yes or no, that yes will win.

He said he tries to counter that resignation by saying that the government wont be able to steal the vote if observers and the public keep a close watch on the ballot boxes.

But theres nothing he can do about the wide sense of intimidation that followed the governments firing of more than 110,000 civil servants and the jailing of more than 50,000 for allegedly supporting the putsch.

The opponents also had no way to counter Erdogans severe clampdown on the news media, the arrests of journalists and the closing of dozens of news outlets following the coup attempt.

The no backers had no way to stop Erdogan from taking full advantage of the state apparatus as he campaigned for the amendments, invariably receiving more TV news coverage than Kilicdaroglu and other no campaigners.

Nor could they match Erdogans skill in capitalizing on the countrys woes, which include a revival of the insurgency by the Kurdistan Workers Party separatists in southeastern Turkey and the threat Islamic State extremists based in neighboring Syria.

Yet whatever complaints the CHP may have about the government using the state of emergency to block access to the media and the general public, it pales in comparison to Erdogans crackdown on the mainly Kurdish Peoples Democratic Party, whose parliamentary leadership have been detained on charges of supporting the Kurdish separatists, widely known as the PKK.

City and town officials belonging to the Kurdish Peoples Democratic Party have been ousted from their positions and hundreds of its local leaders have been detained, the party said April 7. Rallies have been banned, the party cannot put up posters showing its leaders now in jail and it cannot even play its campaign song, party officials said.

In a day packed with appearances and interviews to rally support for the no vote, Cakirozer also made a low-key visit to a textile factory, where he greeted workers in the cafeteria.

I am afraid if [Erdogan] wins there will be a dictatorship, said Nurten Gunes, 24, a recent graduate in international relations, whos working on the production line pending her admission to a graduate degree program. She said her friends felt they were under pressure to vote yes in order to keep their jobs.

Other employees seemed well aware of what was at stake in the referendum and that the eyes of the world are now on Turkey.

All the world wants no to win, so the people around me say that we have to say yes, said Nebahat Toraman, 43, another worker.

The vote is indeed being watched closely from abroad. Turkey, a country of some 80 million that connects Europe with Asia and a critical U.S. ally in NATO, borders some of the worlds most unstable places, starting with Syria and Iraq.

Nearly every Western partner has expressed deep reservations about the proposed constitutional changes, but most have stayed silent so as not to provide a foil for Erdogans yes campaign. The Trump administration, which has allied with the PKKs Syrian affiliate in the battle against Islamic State extremists in Syria, has delayed its decision on a military plan to capture Raqqa, the self-declared Islamic State capital, until after the referendum.

The outcome Sunday is unclear, with some polls showing the country divided, and the main uncertainty is whether voters are telling the pollsters their true intentions Sunday or whether theyve made up their minds.

Gutman is a special correspondent.

ALSO

Link:
Some Turks fear the rise of a dictatorship as a referendum ...