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Ben DreyfussAug. 8, 2017 4:32 PM

August 8, 2017:

President Donald Trump on Tuesday warned North Korea against escalating nuclear tensions, promising the United States would unleash unprecedented fire and fury if the country did not stop threatening to retaliate against the United Nations newest sanctions.

North Korea best not make any more threats to the United States, Trump told reporters from his Bedminster, New Jersey golf course, where he is vacationing for the next two weeks. They will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen. They will be met with fire, fury, and frankly power the likes of which the world has never seen.

December 26, 2016:

Jeffrey Lewis, a nuclear non-proliferation expert at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, points out that in peacetime, any belligerent Trump Tweet about nuclear weapons might not appear as alarming, simply because confirmation bias might lead key actors not to interpret it in its most frightening light at that moment. Amid rising international tensions, though, that confirmation bias might work in the other direction, he says.

Imagine were in a crisisif he recklessly Tweets, people could read these things in the worst possible light, Lewis tells me. The North Koreans have a plan to use nuclear weapons very early in a conflict. Theyre not going to wait around. If they think we are going, theyregoing to use nuclear weapons against South Korea and Japan.

As a potential example, Lewis points out that earlier this year, Trump said he would handle the North Korean nuclear threat by getting China to make North Korean leader Kim Jong Un disappear. Lewis notes that imprecise language in an errant, bellicose Trump Tweet particularly amid rising tensions could conceivably amount to an accidental assassination threat.

Imagine if the North Koreans are looking for any signs that were about to attack as their signal that they have to go, says Lewis, adding that if Trump says the wrong thing and gives the impression that were about to act, the North Koreans might decide not to wait around to find out if thats true or not, and might hit targets throughout South Korea and Japan where U.S. military forces are stationed.

In this telling, Lewis notes, its possible to envision some kind of ambiguous Tweet such as, weve gotta get rid of this guy unleashing untold consequences. Alternatively, Lewis argues, its possible to envision a rash Trump Tweet locking the U.S. into an untenable position by closing off the presidents ability to back down or compromise,rather than preserving maneuvering room, making peaceful resolution harder.

Trumps fire and fury comments about North Korea today werent in tweet form, but aside from that, Jeffrey Lewis really called this one accurately. Chilling.

On the other hand, Donald Trump called it accurately 4 YEARS AGO.

Ben Dreyfuss is Mother Jones' senior editor for growth and engagement. He's done some other stuff, too. You can email him at bdreyfuss@motherjones.com. But you don't have to. But you can. But you really don't have to.

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This WaPo Article From December Eerily Predicted Donald Trump's Fire & Fury Threat To North Korea - Mother Jones